• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Wild Weather Monger said:
I think KATL will hedge a bit to the warning side criteria simply because the chance of tomorrow's AM commute risk being a nightmare with the cold surface and sub-freezing air in any AM snowfall of significance.
Click to expand...
I don’t know. A lot of times they’ll go with the WWA and upgrade last second to cover their rear ends. They are probably holding a prayer vigil that this thing goes away and they don’t have to make a call.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
06z euroView attachment 161712
Click to expand...

This Finger strip across NC has been there for days on the Euro suite, especially ens and Euro AI.
It was orientated more Murphy to Manteo, but now consensus is Murphy to Elizabeth City. You see it on Icon ,Ukmet and finally now GFS, Gefs.
If I'm in Raleigh, you want just a shade/dribble more flatter look to evolve at the last second , and flatten this trajectory back towards Murphy to Manteo angle.

There's Metorology behind the orientation of this angle, not modelology. So not sure what can tick back up stream to get that outcome achieved.
 
DopplerWx said:
06z graf
Click to expand...

It doesn't really have anything but showers after the initial fronto band, which is believable since the wave is weakening. Looks a lot like the January 2011 storm for the upstate, Hammer time with the fronto band and then spottier stuff afterwards that doesn't really add a lot to total accumulations.
 
Another model that has never wavered here is the Graph. Not once has it showed any ptype besides snow. Consistent beyond belief. Still has clouds rolling in here right before sunrise tomorrow, thick clouds by 8:30ish am, complete overcast. Precip starting 2-3pm.

I never see any clown, accum maps from it. I just watch the motion clip every time Dopplerwx or anyone post. I appreciate it.

The post analysis of the storm will be fun to see and confirm these new model tools in AI worlds legitimacy.
 
rburrel2 said:
It doesn't really have anything but showers after the initial fronto band, which is believable since the wave is weakening. Looks a lot like the January 2011 storm for the upstate, Hammer time with the fronto band and then spottier stuff afterwards that doesn't really add a lot to total accumulations.
Click to expand...
Yep it’s my hope that it (along with euro and gfs) nail the fronto band. I’m paranoid we get screwed in clt and never start as snow.
 
DopplerWx said:
06z graf
Click to expand...

I don't know how good the GRAF is with precipitation types, but I've noticed it does best with onset precipitation, whereaseas all other models tend to underestimate it. Good to see it moving the sleet line further north such that it's less of an outlier, even though it's more on the southern camp.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
At this point I would depend more on WPC as they are rarely wrong immediately going into an event

Click to expand...
Folks will depend on whatever they want to depend on. There are some super talented people in here that follow these storms like hawks. If you or anyone else wants to follow the WPC’s forecast thoughts, fine, have it. This forum has nothing to do with just closing down all your weather pages and just following WPC’s thoughts every storm
 
NCSNOW said:
This Finger strip across NC has been there for days on the Euro suite, especially ens and Euro AI.
It was orientated more Murphy to Manteo, but now consensus is Murphy to Elizabeth City. You see it on Icon ,Ukmet and finally now GFS, Gefs.
If I'm in Raleigh, you want just a shade/dribble more flatter look to evolve at the last second , and flatten this trajectory back towards Murphy to Manteo angle.

There's Metorology behind the orientation of this angle, not modelology. So not sure what can tick back up stream to get that outcome achieved.
Click to expand...

That line is Climo Correct too…. I-85 N/W. So historically speaking it looks accurate placement wise


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BIG FROSTY said:
That's a big change, wasn't expecting that from you. Hope you are right!
Click to expand...
the ice trending north out of Georgia&South Carolina will push the heaviest snowfall ever so slightly north…gonna be a sweet spot somewhere closer to us now. It’s a rug pull so to speak last minute, sleet/zr really gonna kill a lot of areas in the snowfall department.
 
Metwannabe said:
Such a fine line here in N NC. Back to flatter/weaker system means all snow but we are losing qpf again, the MOGREPS (Ukie ens) below shows that but if we amp it up with more qpf we run the risk of waa. It's never easy
View attachment 161730
View attachment 161731
Click to expand...
I was just gonna say that GFS run for those of us north of 85 remained all snow. 5" from roughly my house to your house.
 
BullCityWx said:
I was just gonna say that GFS run for those of us north of 85 remained all snow. 5" from roughly my house to your house.
Click to expand...
I see, hadn't even looked that closely at the GFS this morning lol. I think on the northern fringes you can make up for less qpf with higher ratios, gonna be a narrow money spot in there somewhere
 
BirdManDoomW said:
the ice trending north out of Georgia&South Carolina will push the heaviest snowfall ever so slightly north…gonna be a sweet spot somewhere closer to us now. It’s a rug pull so to speak last minute, sleet/zr really gonna kill a lot of areas in the snowfall department.
Click to expand...
I think you’re mostly right here. There will be a big winner somewhere between Murphy and Hendersonville that stays all snow. Prob an 8-10” report
 
15 this am in middle Tenn. Hasn’t been above freezing in several days. We should accumulate every flake that falls unless something tragic happens
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top