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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

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Very reminiscent of what the HRRR did with the Jan 22 storm in NE Ga. It began honking about Front end snow that hung til ending as sleet.


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Spurs up said:
mitch what's your opinion on i 20 corridor?
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I think we get a heavy burst of snow/wintry mix at the start tomorrow afternoon. That is going to be our chance to make the ground white which to me will be our "boom scenario". I think that is possible IF we get the finger front banding. Then I think we get a glaze of ice overnight (Not thinking an ice storm or anything)
 
Does anybody know if I40 from Knoxville to Hwy 276 to Maggie Valley is open from the damage back in the Fall? If so, how well do they treat this area? Debating a weekend trip.
 
I’m surprised there’s not more upset people here with the increasing ice warm nose. Gonna be a much smaller footprint of snow than originally thought. If I was in Atlanta to Charlotte I would be chasing places like Winston Salem, Blowing Rock and maybe down to Hickory.
 
DopplerWx said:
06z graf
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I don't have a clue how reliable the graf is though the simulated radar is really cool. One thing some models may be missing is that this part of Georgia (no, not the mid-south LOL) does very well with NW flow events when the storms track to our south and east. It sometimes accounts for an extra inch or two.
 
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Still expecting a moderate event for Asheville and south-west NC but believe the maps there are overdone due to ice coming further north than expected. This puts more of our friends in south-west Virginia into play like Galax, Virginia.
 
NAM appears to be an outlier, like I thought. Good to see some of the ultra short range models trend snowier.

A Rain Cold rule of thumb is to slash snowfall map amounts. In this case, the southern end of the max zone will likely mix more than depicted.

Anyway, good to see some better trends overnight/this AM. At the end of the day, it's going to be an impactful winter storm. Many of us haven't seen one of these in quite a while.

Enjoy the day, folks. We don't know when we'll get to do it again.
 
Its still surprising to me to see most modeling with so little temp response at the surface after snow begins. As you can see here by this sounding the low levels are cold and dry as precip begins with wetbulb temps into the mid 20s off the surface. It would be one thing if these levels were marginal or there was strong waa at these levels but 925 to 975mb temps stay well below freezing after saturation..so there should be a good temp response at the surface. So I don't buy these 30 to 32 degree temps being shown..should be more like 26 to 29 imo. Second is gfs sounding.

Code: 
Date: 31 hour NAM valid 13Z FRI 10 JAN 25
Station: 34.2,-83.59
Latitude:   34.20
Longitude: -83.59
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   190                                                               
SFC  991   261  -0.1 -10.0  48  9.8  -3.3 252   1 273.7 274.0 270.4 278.8  1.81wetbulbs
  2  950   600  -0.0 -12.2  39 12.2  -3.8 193  10 277.2 277.4 272.1 281.6  1.57
  3  900  1032  -0.2 -26.4  12 26.2  -6.0 219  10 281.3 281.4 272.8 282.8  0.49
  4  850  1490   1.2 -29.5   8 30.7  -5.6 244  15 287.4 287.4 275.9 288.6  0.39
  5  800  1974  -2.8 -14.7  40 11.8  -6.5 238  13 288.1 288.4 278.0 292.7  1.53
  6  750  2482  -4.1  -4.8  95  0.7  -4.4 210  11 292.1 292.7 282.4 302.6  3.56
  7  700  3031  -0.6  -0.8  99  0.2  -0.7 222  33 301.8 302.7 287.9 317.3  5.16
  8  650  3622  -2.5  -3.0  97  0.4  -2.7 217  33 306.1 307.0 288.9 320.6  4.73

Gfs


Code: 
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   170                                                                 
SFC  976   365  -0.1  -6.3  63  6.2  -2.3 138   2 274.9 275.3 272.1 281.7  2.44
  2  950   581  -0.8 -11.4  45 10.6  -4.1 158   6 276.3 276.6 271.8 281.1  1.68
  3  900  1012  -1.2 -11.5  45 10.3  -4.5 176   8 280.3 280.6 274.2 285.3  1.75
  4  850  1468  -0.8  -7.8  59  7.0  -3.3 190  13 285.4 285.8 278.0 292.6  2.51
  5  800  1951  -1.6  -2.0  97  0.4  -1.8 208  24 289.4 290.1 281.9 301.3  4.12
 
If you’re not hard to please, there are going to be a lot more haves than have nots with this one I think. If frozen precip is your thing.

If you are only praying for snow you are going to be sorely disappointed. Now is the time to adjust your expectations accordingly.
 
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