That would be a lot for us...I am thinking 0.5-1" of snow and 1" of sleet would be our best case.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Low we are tracking is actually over south AL/GA on that image. The low over TN is more or less a reflection of the northern stream wave.
Snowlover34
Member
The way the models been going up here in the Tennessee valley they might as well down grade the winter storm warning we might just be getting a cold rain with the warm nose consistently pushing north
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think they'll be in line with Alabama's offices with a sharp curve north. Usually offices follow offices
I’m not sure why they wouldn’t include sleet in their snowfall maps. The NWS counts sleet officially as snowfall. You’re right though. It looks to me like once again, soundings aren’t being looked at closely. A lot of what these models are depicting as ZR is occurring with 925mb temperatures below freezing, so that should be sleet. We saw the same thing in January 2022
Makeitsnow
Member
I think that's a stretch. Given the expected model error in surface temps (probably at least 3 degrees) freezing rain is going to be a pretty big issue down that way.
Showmeyourtds
Member
At this point, I'm not even certain if we're in for a warning criteria event with how the 700mb nose is modeling, even up along the GA hwy 20 corridor (Rome-Canton-Cumming-Gainesville). If I were them, I'd throw out an advisory for everyone, then upgrade to warnings as observations unfold to the west.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Or maybe it will be more sleet for I-20 ?
ChattaVOL
Member
The precip shield on radar looks to be out performing the HRRR..
I remain confident that the models are still underestimating both the strength of the cold air mass and the potential snowfall amounts. The current setup, including an expansive surface high to the north and the associated cold air damming (CAD), is being downplayed in some of the global models. These features are critical in reinforcing the cold air across the region, especially with snowpack to the north helping to sustain subfreezing temperatures at the surface.
Additionally, the models seem to be underrepresenting the influence of dynamic cooling from strong vertical motion (ascent) ahead of the trough. With a robust mid-level jet streak and deep-layer forcing from the approaching shortwave, the cold air intrusion could be deeper and more resilient than currently depicted.
As the event nears and mesoscale models take over, I fully expect future runs to reflect colder boundary layer temperatures and a sharper thermal gradient, which will likely enhance snowfall totals. This underestimation is a classic pattern we’ve seen before, where models struggle to resolve the full impact of CAD and low-level cold air pooling until closer to the event.
Additionally, the models seem to be underrepresenting the influence of dynamic cooling from strong vertical motion (ascent) ahead of the trough. With a robust mid-level jet streak and deep-layer forcing from the approaching shortwave, the cold air intrusion could be deeper and more resilient than currently depicted.
As the event nears and mesoscale models take over, I fully expect future runs to reflect colder boundary layer temperatures and a sharper thermal gradient, which will likely enhance snowfall totals. This underestimation is a classic pattern we’ve seen before, where models struggle to resolve the full impact of CAD and low-level cold air pooling until closer to the event.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
How much is being reported on the ground though? Want to rule virga out.
Consolation prize WWA seems inevitable, but hard to say with sleet and freezing rain maybe still causing some headaches at first.
If true, are we sure that’s a good thing lol? Could mean more amped/warmer and we can’t afford that
Bigedd09
Member
RGEM coming further north as well. Never underestimate the NAM and its ability to detect the warm nose.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
No? Look at the 700 and 850 layers. It's a tick south/colder.
ChattaVOL
Member
mPING’s look like it is falling.. all the way near the New Mexico and Mexico line and north of OKC.
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I was an advocate for this thing to be more amped, and now with the sleet line on my doorstep on the NAM I guess I got my wish?
Generally I was hoping for more amplitude in our iteration of the trough in the eastern 2/3s. Early runs had it, then lost it, as the Baja low stretched the energy into some ugly positively tilted fold and we lost some northern stream support. Good enough for some, but my chief concern was qpf, and when you have low qpf that's when you can light snow/34/no sticking conditions, which isn't a complete L but still very frustrating.
What i didn't see coming was both the Baja low deepening more and this dumb shortwave appendage rotating around it and going negative tilt over Mexico. Generally this doesn't happen. This is already a highly anomalous event. The Cali fires and the winds that fanned them are directly related to the unusual position of this wound up low and the associated impacts.
Anticipating this little move on Monday would be impossible
So we got our amplitude but not by my desired method, this little move is what causes the WAA surge and pumps up heights ahead of the system. Broadly, this storm will feature a lot of P-types for the south. I noticed a lot of ill-will towards people rooting for a more amped solution, which I get, I think if you're in Huntsville and tenuously on the right side of the snow line it may seem punitive if the eastern folks want to amp things up so they get there's. I thought generally a more amped solution would be a tide that lifted more ships, as evidenced by model runs earlier in the week, but because it happened at the Baja low we're at risk for less pleasant solutions. So it goes.
Generally I was hoping for more amplitude in our iteration of the trough in the eastern 2/3s. Early runs had it, then lost it, as the Baja low stretched the energy into some ugly positively tilted fold and we lost some northern stream support. Good enough for some, but my chief concern was qpf, and when you have low qpf that's when you can light snow/34/no sticking conditions, which isn't a complete L but still very frustrating.
What i didn't see coming was both the Baja low deepening more and this dumb shortwave appendage rotating around it and going negative tilt over Mexico. Generally this doesn't happen. This is already a highly anomalous event. The Cali fires and the winds that fanned them are directly related to the unusual position of this wound up low and the associated impacts.
Anticipating this little move on Monday would be impossible
So we got our amplitude but not by my desired method, this little move is what causes the WAA surge and pumps up heights ahead of the system. Broadly, this storm will feature a lot of P-types for the south. I noticed a lot of ill-will towards people rooting for a more amped solution, which I get, I think if you're in Huntsville and tenuously on the right side of the snow line it may seem punitive if the eastern folks want to amp things up so they get there's. I thought generally a more amped solution would be a tide that lifted more ships, as evidenced by model runs earlier in the week, but because it happened at the Baja low we're at risk for less pleasant solutions. So it goes.
It has the front band similar to globals, doesn’t look anything like the nam
That’s important to remember. I’m not sure what FFC’s warning criteria is for sleet, but I know that GSP’s is .5”. With ground temperatures as cold as they are, .5” of sleet will absolutely have the impact of a major winter storm
RTRwx
Member
The (Not very reliable) WRF Suite has less warm nose in AL, GA and Southern TN too. NAM is torching just below 700MBs compared everything else. I'd love for the NAM to be wrong but it's usually pretty good with warm nose issues.
ChattaVOL
Member
I just know when storms have out performed out west it usually bodes well for us..
Epic mixed bag sleet storm headed for the 85 corridor. Very cold. Should be a lot of fun
Apps runner, phase, amp 3 phrases that need reevaluation after this system bc they are getting really misused/interpreted
Once again, regions currently forecasted for 1-2 inches of snowfall could realistically see totals in the 2-3 inch range or higher. This is a prime example of the models underestimating critical dynamics within the storm system. The strength of the low-level cold air advection, combined with the enhanced baroclinic zone along the front, creates a setup where mesoscale banding and localized upward motion are likely being overlooked. Additionally, the models may not be fully resolving the latent heat release in the mid-levels, which can intensify cyclogenesis and further enhance lift in the deformation zone.
With the cold air being locked in place due to strong CAD, surface temperatures are likely to be colder than what deterministic models are currently showing, further boosting snow-to-liquid ratios. As we approach the event and higher-resolution models refine these mesoscale details, I anticipate upward adjustments in snowfall projections, particularly in areas along the frontal boundary where dynamic cooling is most pronounced.
With the cold air being locked in place due to strong CAD, surface temperatures are likely to be colder than what deterministic models are currently showing, further boosting snow-to-liquid ratios. As we approach the event and higher-resolution models refine these mesoscale details, I anticipate upward adjustments in snowfall projections, particularly in areas along the frontal boundary where dynamic cooling is most pronounced.
Some of the p-types on the maps are somewhat misleading IMO. This sounding for Memphis on the backside of the storm has limited moisture and lift in the dendritic growth zone so tend to think that would be mostly snow pellets, snow grains, and freezing drizzle instead of "snow" it shows on a map But then you have some of the higher-resolution models with a similar sounding but showing it as "sleet" which is also misleading as no warm layer for sleet formation. Just so many factors involved with this storm lol.
Makeitsnow
Member
For a while but the warm nose aloft will be deep and max temp will reach 5c by afternoon. By 18z it's probably freezing rain
Once again, regions currently forecasted for 1-2 inches of snowfall could realistically see totals in the 2-3 inch range or higher. This is a prime example of the models underestimating critical dynamics within the storm system. The strength of the low-level cold air advection, combined with the enhanced baroclinic zone along the front, creates a setup where mesoscale banding and localized upward motion are likely being overlooked. Additionally, the models may not be fully resolving the latent heat release in the mid-levels, which can intensify cyclogenesis and further enhance lift in the deformation zone.
With the cold air being locked in place due to strong CAD, surface temperatures are likely to be colder than what deterministic models are currently showing, further boosting snow-to-liquid ratios. As we approach the event and higher-resolution models refine these mesoscale details, I anticipate upward adjustments in snowfall projections, particularly in areas along the frontal boundary where dynamic cooling is most pronounced.
With the cold air being locked in place due to strong CAD, surface temperatures are likely to be colder than what deterministic models are currently showing, further boosting snow-to-liquid ratios. As we approach the event and higher-resolution models refine these mesoscale details, I anticipate upward adjustments in snowfall projections, particularly in areas along the frontal boundary where dynamic cooling is most pronounced.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
FV3 is dramatically colder and south. Almost all snow on the N metro ATL region
Bigedd09
Member
Pivotal must be off, cause it had several hours of sleet from charlotte to huntersville
Actually it’s a tick south. As for the NAM and detecting a warm nose, I don’t think anyone can ever honestly dismiss that with it. I know I can’t because I’ve been on the wrong side of too many busted forecasts the last 10 years. What I will say and what I was saying last night was that I didn’t see how anyone could seriously take the low track it was giving at 0z seriously when it was nothing like anything we had seen on any modeling previously. The fact that it shifted the low track to almost the Gulf Coast at 12z from cutting up into Tennessee on the 0z is pretty good proof
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
Can you show it?
tractor girl
Member
janky snow/sleet totals via FV3
What i'm thinking for the tidewater:
-If the NAM is right, be prepared for sleety rain with a little snow to begin,
-If everyone else is right, it could be good, but the narrow corridor of accumulation does not make things easy
-As of now i don't foresee any coastal enhancement, we need better support at 5h first, but it's not out of the realm of possibility given how things are trending. but, we need that northern stream trend to depress heights in the ohio valley and not in texas, first and foremost
Yeah the line of snow didn’t necessarily change but it definitely hits the mountains/upstate pretty hard! Hope we trend to this look. Not that this is 10-1 ratios which are probably generous
