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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

I still don't understand why some models are showing such warm surface temps. GFS has me at 32/14 at 8am. And has snow starting to fall enough to accumulate by 9am. Then light snow from 9am to noon(.10 of liquid). But it takes my surface temp from 32 at 8am to 35 at 11am.

Sorry, I'm not buying that.
 
Sticking with my 2-4 incher for my immediate area. All Snow as ptype. I have more confidence in ending up closer to the 4 than the 2 this morning. Things look as good as they ever had for the Triad and NW NC , as they have the whole time tracking this thing all this week. Should be able to net .4-.5 qpf and hopefully keep warm nose out. See how we look after all the 12Z comes in latter today.
Hopefully everyone on here over performs
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Let’s not get too flat or we’ll be back to that drying up mess we were in about 24 hours ago.
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Right now we need flatter. QPF isn't the primary issue here, it's the low in the upper levels running too far north. We don't need out 500 low in TN, our 700mb low in N GA, and our surface in the panhandle. That's just translating to warmth elevator.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Kinda surprised NGA isn’t issued a warning yet
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NEGaweather said:
They said yesterday it would probably be afternoon.


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It likely will be in the next 4 to 6 hours. By noon we will see warnings and WWA's issued based on criteria. Current WSW criteria also is now 2-4 North, up to 2 in downtown ATL, and up to 0.2" ice across the board. I'd expect WWA's south of the city and WSW for ATL N based on those parameters and timing.
 
Public Service Announcement....Know your model history...

With all the back and forth about this model and that model and is this good or is that good it helps to have a little perspective on model history. Sad to say I am old enough that I was in college with the NAM (formely ETA) model was born in 1991. So let's rewind a tad....

I attended UNC Asheville in the early 90s for my Met degree and discovered the world of weather models. Keep in mind home internet didn't really exist back then and at the school all the computer models were printed out on dot matrix printers and hung on the map wall every day. Any who, the primary computer model back then was the NGM model that only went out to 48 hrs. It was developed in the 80s and upgrades were halted in 1991. Enter the ETA model that was supposed to supplant the the old and decrepit NGM. But real world running of both 48hr models side by side yielded the the ETA just wasn't up to par with the NGM so the NGM persisted on and on until the early 2000s without any upgrades.

Off to the side of the map wall was the "global" models...the AVN that ran out to 72 hrs and the MRF which took over from there to 5 days out. Accuracy left much to be desired on the MRF but the AVN held it's own against the NGM. And last but not least was King Euro that existed back then and sniffed out the blizzard of 93 the Monday before and locked in on that storm. Some things never change.

Fast forward a few years or a decade and the AVN was extended to run out 5 days and was renamed the GFS. Also the NGM was finally retired as the GFS became the primary model of choice. Also the ETA was renamed the NAM and other short range mesoscale models were born off it's architecture. RAP, HRRR and WRF to name a few.

From all this some solid rules of thumb can be developed...and this is just my opinion. The NAM is decent to pay attention to inside 24 hours. Outside of 24 hrs its just a "huh...look at that". The offshoots of the NAM (RAP, HRRR, WRF, etc) are good to look at inside 12 hours. Outside of that it's just for entertainment purposes. Too many times I've seen the NAM cave to the GFS/EURO in the last 36 hrs vs the other way around. Yes the NAM can pull a trump card and find a needle in a haystack 36 hours out but that is by far not the norm.

So remember, when your getting worked up one way or another with the NAM, that your fretting over a computer model that was born in 1991 to replace a model that was born in the 80s with upgrades halted in 91 and it couldn't.

Happy model watching.
Jason
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Public Service Announcement....Know your model history...

With all the back and forth about this model and that model and is this good or is that good it helps to have a little perspective on model history. Sad to say I am old enough that I was in college with the NAM (formely ETA) model was born in 1991. So let's rewind a tad....

I attended UNC Asheville in the early 90s for my Met degree and discovered the world of weather models. Keep in mind home internet didn't really exist back then and at the school all the computer models were printed out on dot matrix printers and hung on the map wall every day. Any who, the primary computer model back then was the NGM model that only went out to 48 hrs. It was developed in the 80s and upgrades were halted in 1991. Enter the ETA model that was supposed to supplant the the old and decrepit NGM. But real world running of both 48hr models side by side yielded the the ETA just wasn't up to par with the NGM so the NGM persisted on and on until the early 2000s without any upgrades.

Off to the side of the map wall was the "global" models...the AVN that ran out to 72 hrs and the MRF which took over from there to 5 days out. Accuracy left much to be desired on the MRF but the AVN held it's own against the NGM. And last but not least was King Euro that existed back then and sniffed out the blizzard of 93 the Monday before and locked in on that storm. Some things never change.

Fast forward a few years or a decade and the AVN was extended to run out 5 days and was renamed the GFS. Also the NGM was finally retired as the GFS became the primary model of choice. Also the ETA was renamed the NAM and other short range mesoscale models were born off it's architecture. RAP, HRRR and WRF to name a few.

From all this some solid rules of thumb can be developed...and this is just my opinion. The NAM is decent to pay attention to inside 24 hours. Outside of 24 hrs its just a "huh...look at that". The offshoots of the NAM (RAP, HRRR, WRF, etc) are good to look at inside 12 hours. Outside of that it's just for entertainment purposes. Too many times I've seen the NAM cave to the GFS/EURO in the last 36 hrs vs the other way around. Yes the NAM can pull a trump card and find a needle in a haystack 36 hours out but that is by far not the norm.

So remember, when your getting worked up one way or another with the NAM, that your fretting over a computer model that was born in 1991 to replace a model that was born in the 80s with upgrades halted in 91 and it couldn't.

Happy model watching.
Jason
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Fellow UNC Asheville alum! Great advice too
 
6z eps
1736704800-aHBCuTYatrY.png
 
As much as we are sweating the details of the snow/sleet/freezing rain lines and amounts, the bottom line is that if you are getting greater than .25" of precip with below freezing temps, this will be a high impact winter storm. Especially with our established cold temperatures leading up to the event. Enjoy the ride!
 
ForsythSnow said:
It likely will be in the next 4 to 6 hours. By noon we will see warnings and WWA's issued based on criteria. Current WSW criteria also is now 2-4 North, up to 2 in downtown ATL, and up to 0.2" ice across the board. I'd expect WWA's south of the city and WSW for ATL N based on those parameters and timing.
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I think KATL will hedge a bit to the warning side criteria simply because the chance of tomorrow's AM commute risk being a nightmare with the cold surface and sub-freezing air in any AM snowfall of significance.
 
MotoWeatherman said:
Public Service Announcement....Know your model history...

With all the back and forth about this model and that model and is this good or is that good it helps to have a little perspective on model history. Sad to say I am old enough that I was in college with the NAM (formely ETA) model was born in 1991. So let's rewind a tad....

I attended UNC Asheville in the early 90s for my Met degree and discovered the world of weather models. Keep in mind home internet didn't really exist back then and at the school all the computer models were printed out on dot matrix printers and hung on the map wall every day. Any who, the primary computer model back then was the NGM model that only went out to 48 hrs. It was developed in the 80s and upgrades were halted in 1991. Enter the ETA model that was supposed to supplant the the old and decrepit NGM. But real world running of both 48hr models side by side yielded the the ETA just wasn't up to par with the NGM so the NGM persisted on and on until the early 2000s without any upgrades.

Off to the side of the map wall was the "global" models...the AVN that ran out to 72 hrs and the MRF which took over from there to 5 days out. Accuracy left much to be desired on the MRF but the AVN held it's own against the NGM. And last but not least was King Euro that existed back then and sniffed out the blizzard of 93 the Monday before and locked in on that storm. Some things never change.

Fast forward a few years or a decade and the AVN was extended to run out 5 days and was renamed the GFS. Also the NGM was finally retired as the GFS became the primary model of choice. Also the ETA was renamed the NAM and other short range mesoscale models were born off it's architecture. RAP, HRRR and WRF to name a few.

From all this some solid rules of thumb can be developed...and this is just my opinion. The NAM is decent to pay attention to inside 24 hours. Outside of 24 hrs its just a "huh...look at that". The offshoots of the NAM (RAP, HRRR, WRF, etc) are good to look at inside 12 hours. Outside of that it's just for entertainment purposes. Too many times I've seen the NAM cave to the GFS/EURO in the last 36 hrs vs the other way around. Yes the NAM can pull a trump card and find a needle in a haystack 36 hours out but that is by far not the norm.

So remember, when your getting worked up one way or another with the NAM, that your fretting over a computer model that was born in 1991 to replace a model that was born in the 80s with upgrades halted in 91 and it couldn't.

Happy model watching.
Jason
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Good to know! If I find the time, I would love to create a spreadsheet of models and known biases, when they are most effective, etc. Everytime a storm comes up it is hard to remember which does what.


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rburrel2 said:
I predict we're gonna get seriously NAM'ed in a good way today at some point. It'll fold like a cheap tent.
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Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the NAM struggle with the snow that ended up being bigger than expected in February 2020?


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njbarrineau said:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t the NAM struggle with the snow that ended up being bigger than expected in February 2020?


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Yes. It struggled with that one. It completely missed the February 2021 event until 6 hours out and it missed the front end thump from the January 2022 storm until a few hours out. All 3 of those were WAA FGEN forced that the HRRR actually picked up on early
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not shocked. Those overnight runs sucked
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lets hope today is a better day and better trends. Comparing these awful computer models to ground truth will tell us alot. Some of the short range models arent initializing anywhere close to what actually happening in Texas. Need hail mary trends today and i expect you to bring the mojo Fro!
 
Oconeexman said:
lets hope today is a better day and better trends. Comparing these awful computer models to ground truth will tell us alot. Some of the short range models arent initializing anywhere close to what actually happening in Texas. Need hail mary trends today and i expect you to bring the mojo Fro!
Click to expand...

Are current conditions in Texas in our favor or against compared to models?


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packfan98 said:
As much as we are sweating the details of the snow/sleet/freezing rain lines and amounts, the bottom line is that if you are getting greater than .25" of precip with below freezing temps, this will be a high impact winter storm. Especially with our established cold temperatures leading up to the event. Enjoy the ride!
Click to expand...
Felt good waking up to the first Winter Storm Watch in years and while it will probably be borderline advisory/warning criteria here I'll gladly take either at this point. .25 qpf with these temps is definitely a high impact event, regardless or p-types, not gonna waste any of it to melting
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not shocked. Those overnight runs sucked
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One thing that I noted in their discussion was that they said that the models have trended towards the NAM. Of course that discussion was written before any of the 6z model runs started but it appears that the 6z runs have moved away from the NAM
 
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