Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[BIG FROSTY]

It may end up being a sleet fest for many on the board. But be happy we are about to have a winter storm for first time in a good while, let’s enjoy whatever we get.


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[CaryWx]

Some monsters here
View attachment 160854

What's funny about these ensembles is I'm counting the ones that don't perform for mby since there are far fewer now.

 

[RTRwx]

A lot of mets seem to think the warm nose is a major concern, Maybe the canadian is onto something? It's short range model also shows sleet. But they are the outliers as of now

I think it's dependent on your location. 850 warm nose is more likely further east as the low deepens. The 700 warm nose in AL, GA and southern TN depicted by the Canadian is a little weird so I'm tossing it in my wishcast. lol.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I'm not going to dismiss the cmc/RGEM but if the uk and euro are still holding and increasing I'd lean skeptical. It could be late to sorting the energy however so if it flips at 0z or tomorrow while the others hold, it could be biased.

 

[malak05]

Good Lord!!!! All signals overall on ensembles are pretty sweet but this one is a beast one of the biggest events we may have had in 30 years

 

[SimeonNC]

 

[Stormsfury]

I-85 N and W try to stay all snow, but southeast of there it’s a changeover to an icy mess in NC


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Canadian is driving the SFC low well inland and early Ala, like the GFS did the previous couple model cycles... redevelopment of a secondary off Savannah. Hybrid A/B.

 

[RTRwx]

You don't see many 5-6 inch ensemble snow means 3-4 days out here in Southeast TN. Love the GEFS trends for this region.

 

[Bigedd09]

UKIE is warmer through 72. and weaker

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Vibes:

January 9-10, 2011 Major Winter Storm

 

[KyloG]

GEFS v/s EPS...getting closer. Probably blend moving forward.

 

[DopplerWx]

Ukie..

 

[DopplerWx]

UK at 93

 

[WXinCanton]

Ukmet 10:1

 

[jrips27]

UKMET looks like a North Georgia bullseye

 

[Snowflowxxl]

CMC and UK show this is far from a slam dunk. Rain is still in play for many

 

[RTRwx]

UK Precip maps on Pivotal don't match the Snow Totals. I can't see sounding data, but based on the temp profiles, most of North Alabama will be snow where it depicts rain (as shown on snow total maps).

 

[Stormlover]

CMC and UK show this is far from a slam dunk. Rain is still in play for many

almost always will be, but this is a classic storm for a lot of us

 

[1300m]

 

[BullCityWx]

UKMET has less QPF but it is a snowy solution for the majority of NC

 

[Stormlover]

Well, that has sure escalated

 

[malak05]

UK Precip maps on Pivotal don't match the Snow Totals. I can't see sounding data, but based on the temp profiles, most of North Alabama will be snow where it depicts rain (as shown on snow total maps).

yeap some wonky stuff with the Precip types maps on Pivotal it seems based on temp profiles your right and the Snow totals maps seem to imply that it was similar last night

 

[ITUSETOSNOW]

I’ll take a NW trend by about 20 miles…


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So, you're not happy with 4-5?

 

[weather bubba]

Is the UKMET warmer this run? It looks like changeover to rain or mostly rain for folks south of RDU. I do not like the position of the high pressure at all sitting off the Bahamas instead of north of us helping to pump down colder air into the storm.

 

[BullCityWx]

This map would lead me to believe that a chunk of GEFS members have coastal involvement

 

[BIG FROSTY]

UKMET has less QPF but it is a snowy solution for the majority of NC

Except me, 0.2 inches lol never have liked that model anyway.


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[RBR71]

UKMET has less QPF but it is a snowy solution for the majority of NC

Yeah some of the precip maps on pivotal aren't aligning with soundings, could be rate issues but the snow maps solid 2-4
Example: map showing rain with this sounding, borderline bl but below freezing through the column

 

[ForsythSnow]

UKMET looks like a North Georgia bullseye

It looks better in general for NGA. I think we're still sitting good. Most trends seem to be pushing it towards a Miller A style storm which will make the western areas decrease more.

 

[tractor girl]

To get Athens under the bullseye

 

[carolinachaos]

Being that our “system” is now being sampled. Would we say that these newest outcomes are more plausible?


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[Rain Cold]

How does the UK track compare with the previous run?

 

[packfan98]

This is the Storm Thread, not the banter thread. Please report there for complaining or wishing the model would move 50 miles in a certain direction.

 

[packfan98]

How does the UK track compare with the previous run?

The track was similar, didn't have enough energy to bomb out and keep more folks in the snow category I think. @griteater, what did you see?

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Well, that has sure escalated View attachment 160862

Can you show the entire SE map for that?


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[weather bubba]

Well so far the 12z runs have the GFS looking better for many of us and the UKMET and CMC looking worse. We'll see if the Euro continues to show a winter wonderland for most of us.

 

[hunter64]

lNice to see you here, enjoy your thoughts on YT!

 

[Stormlover]

To get Athens under the bullseye

Athens is, Athens, Al. ;-)

 

[jrips27]

The National Blend of Models feels like a good starting point for totals

 

[jackendrickwx]

Even with a more slider-miller A type low track I think mixing could be more widespread than the snowier models indicate. nothing's stopping that WAA, but a better track helps at least push that area of mixing south for longer on the front end. Just gotta find that sweet spot that juuuust barely is able to stay 0c throughout.
also, sfc temps will be a concern. never count out sfc temps. its gonna be close for many

 

[NCWeatherhound]

Hmmm: UKIE's 12Z has FAY in rain Sat. morning, but model soundings are all snow. Sensing some shenanigans. Wait for the ensemble before burning any Team UKIE jerseys.