“Pos - i - tive” trends on the GFS
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yup. It was never gonna crash in one run. But that was a nice step. Excited to look at it in more detail later
Going to continue, playing catch up
Cary_Snow95
Member
Blood connection saw the Icon. They are all-in
See what you are saying there. So many of us want the trough to tilt positive overall, but sharpen to neutral at the base
Good to see the GFS correct slightly east. The model loves to plow into wedges.
bud006
Member
The GFS verbatim would be the biggest snowfall for my location since December 2017. Wow.
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Bigedd09
Member
Brad P thinking 1-3 in CLT but a bust lower is more likely than a bust higher. He thinks mixing will be an issue.
Same here, stayed at or below freezing entire time. It was close but that's improvement, again need it shift south/east another 100 miles or so to feel comfortable
It almost always is. I think we should be skeptical of all snow solutions until more models jump on board with that
Benholio
Member
The snowfall maps don't account for melting/show actual accumulations, right? Like the GFS shows 4-5"+ swath of snowfall around ATL metro but the snow depth map from TT shows ~3". How accurate is this? I just want to temper expectations on the "snowfall" maps that we always see if they are significantly different than actual accumulations
Why are we wasting time watching trends on all these model runs when the Euro AI is like “where you guys been all week?”
Bigedd09
Member
Did it show texas getting shafted this whole time?
Benholio
Member
The consistency on the Euro AI has been pretty incredible
Tokenfreak
Member
I hope so as we need snow here in the lowcountry
rburrel2
Member
Texas hasn't gotten shafted yet.
Don’t know but we could probably find out (may not want to know that answer though lol)
Stormsfury
Member
More separation from the 1st n/s s/w and the Baja Low a tick south.
Basically cut and paste for Charlotte, especially if you’re south/east of LKN.If you’re in/near Atlanta, specifically south of 20, this will be easier on yourself if you accept now that there will very likely be mixing issues at some point. It’s going to come down to that front end thump for the city and how much we can lay down before temps above start to warm and there’s a flip to IP/ZR. Root hard for the front end thump
Is all snow on the table? For sure. But is it likely? Probably not. Still a ways to go. We’re still in the “…but it’s the long range NAM/RGEM” phase of the game. You’d certainly rather be where we are today than where we were 2-3 days ago, but the story on this one has not been written.
iGRXY
Member
ChattaVOL
Member
In Chattanooga as well… holding my breathe and hoping we can nail this.
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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This a fairly accurate look here. Ratios farther south might not be the greatest. Dealt with the problem up here in Roanoke with the storm a couple days ago.
lord have mercy at the GFS on approach 
Classic
Classic
Bigedd09
Member
Canadian Mixed Bag for many. Not even much of a front end thump
Canadian is warm bleh
beanskip
Member
Meanwhile, the 12z Canadian still has it 13F in Charlotte at 7 a.m. Friday morning.
But, what's 15 degrees among friends (AIFS 28F at the same time)?
But, what's 15 degrees among friends (AIFS 28F at the same time)?
Bring it home to Frosty Land, Jimmy Jam. I seem to be in the minimum on just about every output. So need little help pal. They should be locked in by 00z tomorrow night.
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Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC has consistently been a pinger fest here
RTRwx
Member
Canadian is colder at the surface for some (what else is new?) but it has a weird 700 mb inversion not shown by other models thats making sleet the predominant p-type where other models have snow.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Only concern at the moment is how the RGEM and CMC about have the same look.
beanskip
Member
Pretty big jump north with the surface low from the Canadian. 0z had it at the Alabama/Ga./FL line - 12z up to Columbus. It doesn't make much difference in the sensible weather because of the CMC's crazy cold temp profiles (see, 13F in Charlotte Friday morning), but if I were trying not to let my expectations get out of whack, I would take note of this sizeable shift. A low that cuts too far west seems like the main (only?) way this thing can crash.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Tale as old as time. Frosty on the northern fringe. Boom, gets a foot.
Bigedd09
Member
A lot of mets seem to think the warm nose is a major concern, Maybe the canadian is onto something? It's short range model also shows sleet. But they are the outliers as of now
John1122
Member
The Canadian/RGEM is more amped and has a 725mb or so warm nose. The DGZ is also very elevated as upper level temps are warmer than normal. That's why it's showing sleet.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
I-85 N and W try to stay all snow, but southeast of there it’s a changeover to an icy mess in NC
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GEFS ticked colder/south again on the I-20 corridor. We’re so close folks 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Some monsters here
