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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
These model trends are looking awesome for North Alabama. When do they normally start looking at putting out watches?
On a side note, I want to personally thank the peeps that put the time and effort posting the models, the evaluations of those models, and the ones that take time to fulfill the IMBY requests. You guys are the real heroes!
On a side note, I want to personally thank the peeps that put the time and effort posting the models, the evaluations of those models, and the ones that take time to fulfill the IMBY requests. You guys are the real heroes!
here's where i've landed- we want a mix of both- positive tilt on the southern half and more negative on the northern half. we want the entire trough to look like a bow
when the entire feature is more neutrally tilted we get more height rises out ahead of it, which nobody wants, even puts me at risk. however when that entire feature is too positively tilted we get a strung out mess and we're squeezing qpf out of a stone
when the southern half is more positively tilted, it leaves that vort appendage in in baja. I think we want this. GFS and other have been trending this way. adios. i like this trend a lot because when we detach this piece it allows for a cleaner vort down the line. like pruning a crepe myrtle
meanwhile a more neutrally tilted northern piece has an easier time digging, advancing eastward and allows for a healthier storm track for everyone in my opinion. this is why i still think we can still trend colder and snowier.
(it took me like 8 attempts to finally write this in a way that made sense, starting from last night lol)
and yeah, i have an ulterior motive. i'm praying for some coastal enhancement. thats how my event goes from good to great. but i think that can be achieved without sacrificing amounts for the rest of the board
moderately encouraged by trends today from my perspective, we're chiseling away more outer ranges and have a healthier consensus
NCSNOW
Member
think that Fay sounding above the Dendrite Growth region at 14,575 ft is -10.9 Celsius. Needs to be between -12 to - 17 Celsius
I think this continues,
The setup is more like we saw in the 70's & 80's with Miller A's back then.
If so it will be colder on the East side of the apps with higher snow totals.
We'll see but that's my prediction as of now!
Stormlover
Member
I expect a WS Watch by Wed morning and a warning by Thursday morning
That storm was an unmitigated disaster for central NC, so please not.
One of the worst storms in living memory out here as the storm and cold literally fell moving east, after crushing you guys. Fortunately, it was two weeks steer the Christmas 2010 storm, so it was fine. But if it happened now, oh boy…Yeah, that’s easily a snow sounding. Doesn’t even seem close.
EDIT: Wasn't thinking about the dendritic growth zone, could be it. That can be a problem at times, although it’s almost always associated with very light precip, it seems like.
I’m thinking a general 1-3” / 2-4” type event for central NC looks likely at this point. Probably erring on the lower side of those predictions. Best bet is to err on the side of there being more sleet than expected, since it seems like that always happens in situations where the temperature is marginal somewhere in the column.
Seems like the 12z modeling has been mixed. Don’t love the Canadian going the wrong way.
thanksgivingbrown
Member
I’m placing my bets on watches going out tonight. They are already out to our west and there’s less model agreement for those areas.
NCSNOW
Member
I've been swamped today. I can go back and look at the Physics models. My question in laymans terms is how have the AI models shook out this morning? same as 0z/ last nights?
Stormsfury
Member
I'm trying to figure with the Canadian and UKmet solutions, how much of the 1st initial northern stream shortwave interacted initially vs what the NAM and GFS did (along with the ICON to some extent) keeping it separated more.
i think they arrive later than everything else, well after the euro ens
I'm sure it got posted a million pages ago but man the 6z euro AIFS was pretty. widespread ~1-1.5" QPF. uptrended a couple runs ago and has been steady the last two
This is something I’ve noticed. I think on its depiction on Pivotal, it automatically shows anything below the 540 line as rain, but as some mets on here have pointed out in the past, the 540 line was often doesn’t match with the R/S line in this region. The track of the low was roughly the same
NCSNOW
Member
The loop of the 12z Ukie, looked like it transferred to GA coast from central GA? weird, instead of just a straight route from point A. (Pensacola) to point B. (Ga/SC coast)
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Weather Channel taking a blend of gfs and euro.
SimeonNC
Member
My thoughts on the storm for NC rn
I think the CLT metro area is far enough west that we should stay all frozen, plus I still think the CAD element is being downplayed. We won't have the classic 1040 High but modelling does show a weak high initially in a good placement that later slides east and I think others have pointed out yesterday the potential of a meso high. Despite ppls opinions on him, I think ------------- as a good handle on this event for this region. This may well be a classic I-85 split. I think Statesville up through GSO might be the big winners here.
The RDU/Triangle area is more precarious. Areas east of I-95 have the biggest chance of switching to rain while from I-95 west up to I-74 is honestly too unpredictable for me to make a comfortable call lol. If CAD is stronger than modeled/the low is more to the east then RDU might be a similar position to CLT but if the low tracks further west and the CAD is scoured our faster then rain might become a bigger issue.
I think the CLT metro area is far enough west that we should stay all frozen, plus I still think the CAD element is being downplayed. We won't have the classic 1040 High but modelling does show a weak high initially in a good placement that later slides east and I think others have pointed out yesterday the potential of a meso high. Despite ppls opinions on him, I think ------------- as a good handle on this event for this region. This may well be a classic I-85 split. I think Statesville up through GSO might be the big winners here.
The RDU/Triangle area is more precarious. Areas east of I-95 have the biggest chance of switching to rain while from I-95 west up to I-74 is honestly too unpredictable for me to make a comfortable call lol. If CAD is stronger than modeled/the low is more to the east then RDU might be a similar position to CLT but if the low tracks further west and the CAD is scoured our faster then rain might become a bigger issue.
NCSNOW
Member
This is another sleet sounding per gfs. Says it at the bottom and has pink on the clown. To the naked eyeball it should be snow as everything stays left of the freezing line on the way down. But I think if you kiss this line, its enough to melt the flake some or give you icey flake, not pure powder one.
Euro ticked north/warmer 
it's not the mid levels it's sniffing out, it's surface temps i think. another issue the skimpier wave solutions bring is 2m temps. i know "rates overcome all" is basically a meme but surface temps are meh and heavier precip will stabilize it. the gfs actually has mixing/surface temp issues for me in richmond on saturday. i wouldn't overlook this as a risk of the flatter solutions
Stormsfury
Member
Canadian injected more energy into the Baja Low with the 1st northern stream s/w... Way more than the GFS/ICON did
So we've got the NAM + ICON + GFS all a bit better and the RGEM + CMC + UK all a bit worse. Wonder which way the tiebreaker heartbreaker will go?
I think we should be prepared for a few worse runs over the coming days. It's just not possible for everything to trend colder and snowier from here on in.
We just have to hope for minor adjustments and not some major trend change at the 11th hour.
The lack of a cold air feed always concerns me. But this pattern has afforded us some wiggle room in this area. This is one of the reasons I'm always enthusiastic about well-positioned, strongly blocking. Even with less than ideal conditions, you can still find more ways to score.
I think we should be prepared for a few worse runs over the coming days. It's just not possible for everything to trend colder and snowier from here on in.
We just have to hope for minor adjustments and not some major trend change at the 11th hour.
The lack of a cold air feed always concerns me. But this pattern has afforded us some wiggle room in this area. This is one of the reasons I'm always enthusiastic about well-positioned, strongly blocking. Even with less than ideal conditions, you can still find more ways to score.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Man, that downtown AVL downslope effect is brutal.
weather bubba
Member
I think that is a good analysis of the situation as it stands. The strength of the CAD is going to be crucial to determining the precipitation type for folks from RDU south and east. I wish there was a reinforcing high pressure to the north of this system but no such luck. Hopefully that low will track more east and give folks here a better chance of seeing all snow.
SSGa
Member
Never bet on Atlanta. Whether it's the Super Bowl or snow, you will lose.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Atlanta is getting a dusting with that…
Anyone have the Canadian ensembles from 12z?
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EPS was almost double the QPF of the euro last run.
Snowflowxxl
Member
we are still 84 hours out. Still plenty of time for northern trends. This is not surprising.
Avalanche
Member
From Wake, Chatham all the way to Iredell
Euro and ukie both a tick warmer at sfc? That gets a quiet ruh roh from me
Cary_Snow95
Member
This reminds me of January 2017 a bit for NC
weather bubba
Member
Well it looks like the Euro is going to be a disappointment for folks in Central and Eastern North Carolina.
Front end thump still there on euro
Stormsfury
Member
Both the Canadian, and UKMET did a transfer. The GFS/ICON didn't or kept the primary low far enough south, the energy transfer was barely noticed. The Canadian still infused a little bit of the 1st northern stream energy, actually literally came down from due north of the Baja Low back on hour24, where the GFS/ICON/NAM didn't do so.