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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

After the inland runs from the GFS the last couple of days I'll take the 12 euro. Plus I would think/guess that qpf would be a little more expansive than shown.

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RDU stays below freezing the whole event. The one or two inches of snow and ice would be frozen to the roads. That's still a win event in my eyes right now.
 
Euro/Ukmet ticking warmer/weaker concerns me. But lets see what ensembles say.

The biggest consistency for MBY I've noticed is the lack of good qpf. Snow means have increased some, but it's usually max .5 qpf. That's not alot especially with mixing issues. For some reason the storm just doesn't stay strong to the coast and GA gets and SC gets most of the moisture. I need to temper my expectations here.

Hopefully Euro/Ukmet ensembles still stay the course, but I bet a downtick is likely.
 
BullCityWx said:
it's actually held serve or is slightly colder here
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Yeah, temps look okay with it to my initial eye, we just have to hope for more than 0.2” liquid. More precip will help with temps, too (all else being equal). That was a nasty run QPF-wise for anyone in central NC wanting a major event (though it does support a 1-3” type event, which, let’s be honest, is probably most likely one way or another). At least it’s cold leading up to the event, so 1-3” could still have major impacts.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, temps look okay with it to my initial eye, we just have to hope for more than 0.2” liquid. More precip will help with temps, too (all else being equal). That was a nasty run QPF-wise for anyone wanting a major event (though it does support a 1-3” type event, which, let’s be honest, is probably most likely one way or another).
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Wonder if we lose a lot to column saturation? Low initial dewpoints and all.
 
CaryWx said:
Wonder if we lose a lot to column saturation? Low initial dewpoints and all.
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Could be, that’s always the flip side to getting the low DPs we want for temp reasons…lots of precip lost to virga. I do think there’s a chance the front end thump over performs based on past experience, at least.

Also, to be honest, we’re still a ways away to be splitting hairs over 0.2” or 0.4” QPF (as I’m doing, hah!). Often, modeling can’t get that right at go-time, much less several days before the storm. Predicting precip amounts is quite difficult, and precip forecasts bust all the time…people just don’t care if the weather forecast predicts a quarter inch of rain and we get a half inch, but in winter terms that could be the difference between 2” and 5”.
 
ILMRoss said:
here's where i've landed- we want a mix of both- positive tilt on the southern half and more negative on the northern half. we want the entire trough to look like a bow

View attachment 160870
when the entire feature is more neutrally tilted we get more height rises out ahead of it, which nobody wants, even puts me at risk. however when that entire feature is too positively tilted we get a strung out mess and we're squeezing qpf out of a stone

when the southern half is more positively tilted, it leaves that vort appendage in in baja. I think we want this. GFS and other have been trending this way. adios. i like this trend a lot because when we detach this piece it allows for a cleaner vort down the line. like pruning a crepe myrtle
View attachment 160873

meanwhile a more neutrally tilted northern piece has an easier time digging, advancing eastward and allows for a healthier storm track for everyone in my opinion. this is why i still think we can still trend colder and snowier.

(it took me like 8 attempts to finally write this in a way that made sense, starting from last night lol)

and yeah, i have an ulterior motive. i'm praying for some coastal enhancement. thats how my event goes from good to great. but i think that can be achieved without sacrificing amounts for the rest of the board

moderately encouraged by trends today from my perspective, we're chiseling away more outer ranges and have a healthier consensus
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models-2025010712-f090.500hv.conus.gif
comparison gif:

notice how big/robust the vort appendage is on the euro and ukmet compared to others. i think that feature makes our shortwave weaker/less diggier and the surface reflection lamer in response

*whispering: i think the 12z euro looked better at 5h than 00z*
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm fully expecting wobbles and ticks one way or the other. This is a typical thing for it to tick one way and back the other or a couple one way and step back one. My money is on what I said the other day, N of 85 storm. No panic until 24 hours out unless you're 100 miles away.
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Climo..... Know your Climo. N/W of I-85 . Draw a line N GA to NW Raleigh.... theres a historical reference point of 90%
 
I would agree that it's definitely not a trend & trust me I am no where close to the guy that is going to get pissed off when someone post something I don't wanna see. But if we have two more ticks from the 18z & 00z Euro North along with other guidance, then I think it's safe to say that we are heading in the wrong direction.

Go back and look at the back & forth over the nearly 250 pages of this thread.. We just spent nearly 24 hours heading in the right direction. The short range guidance is about to full be in range over the next 24 hours. Hopefully the positive trends outweigh the negative trends going forward. This is coming from someone in Columbia that is likely going to see mainly rain.
 
Mitch West said:
I would agree that it's definitely not a trend & trust me I am no where close to the guy that is going to get pissed off when someone post something I don't wanna see. But if we have two more ticks from the 18z & 00z Euro North along with other guidance, then I think it's safe to say that we are heading in the wrong direction.

Go back and look at the back & forth over the nearly 250 pages of this thread.. We just spent nearly 24 hours heading in the right direction. The short range guidance is about to full be in range over the next 24 hours. Hopefully the positive trends outweigh the negative trends going forward. This is coming from someone in Columbia that is likely going to see mainly rain.
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100% agree. When you head in the right direction for multiple runs in a row, then all of a sudden things shift 50 miles the opposite direction, there is zero reason to be screaming about it. If it does it run after run, then yes, its time to consider it and figure out what changes have occurred to drive it. Right now, it looks like the SLP was slightly further north, 850mb ridging was slightly increased over the GL's, and the northern stream didn't dig as much.....all very subtle differences from the last run of the Euro. I don't have the ability, but I challenge someone to post a 48 gif of the Euro total snowfall and see how it looks.
 
RoddyPiper said:
100% agree. When you head in the right direction for multiple runs in a row, then all of a sudden things shift 50 miles the opposite direction, there is zero reason to be screaming about it. If it does it run after run, then yes, its time to consider it and figure out what changes have occurred to drive it. Right now, it looks like the SLP was slightly further north, 850mb ridging was slightly increased over the GL's, and the northern stream didn't dig as much.....all very subtle differences from the last run of the Euro. I don't have the ability, but I challenge someone to post a 48 gif of the Euro total snowfall and see how it looks.
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While not a trend amongst the current models, I think everyone has grown accustom to expecting a N/NW trend with these setups, in the final days. So yes, while it is just one run, it also falls in line with expectations.
 
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