Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

[packfan98]

the 12z RGEM has much more of a mixed bag at the end of its run.

 

[iGRXY]

This is the 6z.

 

[Mitch West]

 

[jrips27]

Let's keep the good vibes going!! We're almost at 300 on the member map. Take a look and see where your fellow weenies reside and if you'd like to be added, fill out the form below.

You can view the map here -----> Map Link

You can fill out to get added here -----> Link

 

[NCWeatherhound]

Somebody pinch me...
Clemson, SC
2.7 inch ECMWF Ens mean
3.9 inch GEFS mean(increased from 00z run)
2.6 inch CMC Ens mean

View attachment 160740

View attachment 160739View attachment 160741

 

[BullCityWx]

If I was in N GA/N AL/NW SC I would not feel comfortable with the RGEM showing alot of sleet and back toward Alabama, Freezing rain.

 

[packfan98]

 

[griteater]

NWS makes a good point about the isothermal layer and no / limited warm nose....but it could still be early to know on that. Ideally, you have a Miller A sfc track with a good closed low at 850mb tracking to your south. That's the type of setup that keeps the warm nose at bay with a thin rain to snow transition line - storms like 1/22/87, 1/2/2002, 2/26/04. In this case, the 850mb low may open up and sheer out as it moves NE. So, that may limit a super strong warmth surge from the SE to NW, but it's probably not going to be a solid closed low tracking well south (we may have that, but maybe not). I'd say it's a little early to know how that is going to shake out. It's pretty common to see dialog about no warm nose when the globals are on the storm, but then it changes once the hi-res models get on it. But again, we just have to wait and see. It could go either way. Here's is what the 06z Euro looks like with the 850 low / wave

 

[Mahomeless]

the 12z RGEM has much more of a mixed bag at the end of its run.

It's also an outlier from all the Global Ensemble support on almost every aspect of this system.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

If I was in N GA/N AL/NW SC I would not feel comfortable with the RGEM showing alot of sleet and back toward Alabama, Freezing rain.

It’s going to be a sloppy mess of mostly IP IMO. Little snow on the front end and back end

 

[Storm5]

Best chance for a board wide winter storm in a long time . We are never gonna have one that gets everyone at the same time but this one Is gonna cover a large area . Let's keep the colder trends going

 

[griteater]

View attachment 160812

Looks like it's trending to the ICON ensemble mean

 

[jackendrickwx]

Not to be a downer, but lets not put toooo much stock in the icon (or extendo rgem). Those are models we often “toss” when they don’t show what we want

 

[RBR71]

the 12z RGEM has much more of a mixed bag at the end of its run.

This is where I question it's thermals, as Rah NWS stated in there AFD, classic Miller A tracks have very limited mixing issues, basic rn/sn with what mixing there is being mostly ip. Of course I know you know this lol

 

[Stormlover]

If I was in N GA/N AL/NW SC I would not feel comfortable with the RGEM showing alot of sleet and back toward Alabama, Freezing rain.

eh, it's a big outlier

 

[mydoortotheworld]

If I was in N GA/N AL/NW SC I would not feel comfortable with the RGEM showing alot of sleet and back toward Alabama, Freezing rain.

It gives me pause for sure and it wouldn’t be the first time RGEM sounds the alarm bells but the fact is it’s on its own at the moment despite providing what feels might be reality given our luck with these systems the past few years. We’ll know in a couple hours if it’s ahead of the curve or out to lunch

 

[NCWeatherhound]

The 12Z ICON has stirred up folks in the Sandhills. That 3-plus total on the Kuchera scale for FAY would be the most we've seen in 5 years. On the 10-1 scale, it would be closer to 10 years.
It's hard not to be excited for the kids who have only seen spits and sputters -- and, of course, ice.

 

[BullCityWx]

It's also an outlier from all the Global Ensemble support on almost every aspect of this system.

Believe what you wanna believe kiddo but there aint a model out there better with ptypes than the RGEM

 

[rburrel2]

NWS makes a good point about the isothermal layer and no / limited warm nose....but it could still be early to know on that. Ideally, you have a Miller A sfc track with a good closed low at 850mb tracking to your south. That's the type of setup that keeps the warm nose at bay with a thin rain to snow transition line - storms like 1/22/87, 1/2/2002, 2/26/04. In this case, the 850mb low may open up and sheer out as it moves NE. So, that may limit a super strong warmth surge from the SE to NW, but it's probably not going to be a solid closed low tracking well south (we may have that, but maybe not). I'd say it's a little early to know how that is going to shake out. It's pretty common to see dialog about no warm nose when the globals are on the storm, but then it changes once the hi-res models get on it. But again, we just have to wait and see. It could go either way. Here's is what the 06z Euro looks like with the 850 low / wave

At least for the upstate, our warm nose issues are coming from that screaming jet up above 850mb... Sorta unusual to have to worry about an above freezing warm nose at 650-700mb. In fact, I don't think i've ever seen that here before. It's also one reason I think it's unlikely to materialize.

 

[Rain Cold]

Not to be a downer, but lets not put toooo much stock in the icon (or extendo rgem). Those are models we often “toss” when they don’t show what we want

Agreed. I think the key is to mainly look at trends and the relation to other models, at this point. I'm talking about the ICON, the GFS, the Euro, all of it. We know there are going to be changes.

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

It gives me pause for sure and it wouldn’t be the first time RGEM sounds the alarm bells but the fact is it’s on its own at the moment despite providing what feels might be reality given our luck with these systems the past few years. We’ll know in a couple hours if it’s ahead of the curve or out to lunch

The canadian models, unfortunately, have been fairly consistent with that idea in north Alabama.

 

[Cbmatt2408]

If you’re in/near Atlanta, specifically south of 20, this will be easier on yourself if you accept now that there will very likely be mixing issues at some point. It’s going to come down to that front end thump for the city and how much we can lay down before temps above start to warm and there’s a flip to IP/ZR. Root hard for the front end thump

I have accepted my fate and expect a day of 35 degree rain with some flakes and sleet mixed in, but I look forward to the pictures and am rooting for the rest of you.

 

[EmersonGA]

If I was in N GA/N AL/NW SC I would not feel comfortable with the RGEM showing alot of sleet and back toward Alabama, Freezing rain.

I expect it to be like 2011 or 2015. Big thump of snow followed by sleet and a glaze. Could even go to rain for a bit. Seems to happen frequently. I’m glad I moved further north though.

 

[BullCityWx]

I expect it to be like 2011 or 2015. Big thump of snow followed by sleet and a glaze. Could even go to rain for a bit. Seems to happen frequently. I’m glad I moved further north though

and honestly, if you want it to hang around, its the best option.

 

[Mahomeless]

The jealousy of the Deep South paste job most all models are showing is really rearing its ugly head. This is a CLASSIC Miller A look, with a TON of agreement. I-20 special incoming!

 

[NCSNOW]

Not to be a downer, but lets not put toooo much stock in the icon (or extendo rgem). Those are models we often “toss” when they don’t show what we want

The Icon is run off highest res of all global Physics models. I hear ya, but it scores better than the tax payer op model.

 

[BullCityWx]

Bufkit for Florence, AL:
250110/0700Z 67 21003KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 24005KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 23006KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 23004KT 31.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 19004KT 31.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 19003KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 17004KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 19003KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 17004KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 86| 0| 14
250110/1600Z 76 17004KT 33.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 83| 0| 17
250110/1700Z 77 VRB02KT 33.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 83| 0| 17
250110/1800Z 78 18003KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 74| 0| 26
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 20003KT 33.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 83| 0| 17
250110/2000Z 80 VRB01KT 33.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 83| 0| 17
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 33.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 83| 0| 17
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 33.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 84| 0| 16
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 32.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 2:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 86| 0| 14
250111/0000Z 84 28003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 2:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 81| 0| 19

Birmingham, AL:
250110/1300Z 73 VRB02KT 35.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 20003KT 35.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 VRB02KT 32.4F SNPL 5:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.029 5:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.03 47| 47| 6
250110/1600Z 76 VRB02KT 32.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.045 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.07 14| 83| 3
250110/1700Z 77 12003KT 33.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.12 32| 45| 23
250110/1800Z 78 11003KT 34.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.15 35| 25| 40
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB02KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.19 26| 14| 59
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 34.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.25 38| 0| 62
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 34.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.35 50| 0| 50
250110/2200Z 82 VRB01KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.47 84| 0| 16
250110/2300Z 83 01003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.61 86| 0| 14
250111/0000Z 84 02003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.75 68| 0| 32

Huntsville, AL:
250110/0700Z 67 VRB02KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 VRB02KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 20003KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 21005KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 VRB02KT 29.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 15003KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 16003KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 15005KT 29.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 17005KT 30.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
250110/1600Z 76 16005KT 31.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
250110/1700Z 77 17005KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
250110/1800Z 78 16004KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 16004KT 31.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 16004KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 12:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 15003KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 12:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 31.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0
250111/0000Z 84 VRB01KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0

Tupelo, MS:

250110/0600Z 66 23005KT 32.1F SNPL 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 57| 43| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/0700Z 67 24005KT 31.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 21003KT 31.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 19003KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 VRB02KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 VRB02KT 31.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 VRB02KT 31.9F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 VRB02KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 15003KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 90| 0| 10
250110/1500Z 75 14003KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 88| 0| 12
250110/1600Z 76 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 88| 0| 12
250110/1700Z 77 VRB01KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 86| 0| 14
250110/1800Z 78 VRB01KT 32.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 86| 0| 14
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 88| 0| 12
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 33.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 84| 0| 16
250110/2100Z 81 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 87| 0| 13
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 10:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 90| 0| 10
250110/2300Z 83 31003KT 32.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 10:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 89| 0| 11
250111/0000Z 84 32004KT 32.4F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 10:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 90| 0| 10

 

[Deleted member 609]

Hopefully I don’t jinx this but with how cold it’s been if this starts as snow everything will stick instantly.

So much better than my normal storms where snow is trying to stick to puddles of water.

 

[LukeBarrette]

RGEM definitely a further north solution. It’s on the table

 

[Stormlover]

Bufkit for Florence, AL:
250110/0700Z 67 21003KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 24005KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 23006KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 23004KT 31.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 19004KT 31.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 19003KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 17004KT 32.1F SNOW 18:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 19003KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 17004KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 86| 0| 14
250110/1600Z 76 17004KT 33.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 83| 0| 17
250110/1700Z 77 VRB02KT 33.2F SNOW 11:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 83| 0| 17
250110/1800Z 78 18003KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 74| 0| 26
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 20003KT 33.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 83| 0| 17
250110/2000Z 80 VRB01KT 33.2F SNOW 9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 83| 0| 17
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 33.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 83| 0| 17
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 33.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 84| 0| 16
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 32.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 2:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 86| 0| 14
250111/0000Z 84 28003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 2:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 81| 0| 19

Birmingham, AL:
250110/1300Z 73 VRB02KT 35.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 20003KT 35.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 VRB02KT 32.4F SNPL 5:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.029 5:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.03 47| 47| 6
250110/1600Z 76 VRB02KT 32.8F SNPL 1:1| 0.1|| 0.08|| 0.00|| 0.045 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.07 14| 83| 3
250110/1700Z 77 12003KT 33.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.12 32| 45| 23
250110/1800Z 78 11003KT 34.2F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.15 35| 25| 40
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB02KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.19 26| 14| 59
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 34.1F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.25 38| 0| 62
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 34.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.101 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.35 50| 0| 50
250110/2200Z 82 VRB01KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.116 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.47 84| 0| 16
250110/2300Z 83 01003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.138 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.61 86| 0| 14
250111/0000Z 84 02003KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.146 3:1| 0.2|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.75 68| 0| 32

Huntsville, AL:
250110/0700Z 67 VRB02KT 30.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 VRB02KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 20003KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 21005KT 29.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 VRB02KT 29.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 15003KT 29.2F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 16003KT 29.6F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 15005KT 29.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 17005KT 30.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
250110/1600Z 76 16005KT 31.0F SNOW 16:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 13:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
250110/1700Z 77 17005KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 13:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
250110/1800Z 78 16004KT 30.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 13:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 16004KT 31.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 16004KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 12:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 15003KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 11:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 31.5F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 12:1| 4.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 31.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 100| 0| 0
250111/0000Z 84 VRB01KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 12:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.52 100| 0| 0

Tupelo, MS:

250110/0600Z 66 23005KT 32.1F SNPL 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 57| 43| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/0700Z 67 24005KT 31.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0
250110/0800Z 68 21003KT 31.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/0900Z 69 19003KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/1000Z 70 VRB02KT 31.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0| 0
250110/1100Z 71 VRB02KT 31.9F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
250110/1200Z 72 VRB02KT 31.9F SNOW 18:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1300Z 73 VRB02KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 12:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 15003KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 90| 0| 10
250110/1500Z 75 14003KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 88| 0| 12
250110/1600Z 76 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 88| 0| 12
250110/1700Z 77 VRB01KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 86| 0| 14
250110/1800Z 78 VRB01KT 32.8F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 86| 0| 14
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 88| 0| 12
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 33.0F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.56 84| 0| 16
250110/2100Z 81 VRB01KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 13:1| 3.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 87| 0| 13
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 32.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 10:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.68 90| 0| 10
250110/2300Z 83 31003KT 32.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 10:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 89| 0| 11
250111/0000Z 84 32004KT 32.4F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 10:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 90| 0| 10

off which model, nam?

 

[BullCityWx]

off which model, nam?

That is based off the 12z NAM. I'm pulling for everyone but in my experience, you never ever want to see BUFKIT lag behind the clown maps

 

[CaryWx]

Looks like it's trending to the ICON ensemble mean

That 12z 996 LP sits way out there off NC coast it's goodnight nurse for totals in central/eastern NC

 

[malak05]

GFS looks colder so far at frame 57.... snow showers breaking out over N. Miss

 

[jrips27]

 

[rburrel2]

Absolutely perfect trends here at 42hrs out...

 

[BullCityWx]

Bufkit for GSP:

250110/1900Z 79 17003KT 36.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 19005KT 36.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 22006KT 33.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/2200Z 82 25003KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0
250111/0000Z 84 VRB02KT 31.4F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0

Rome, GA:
250110/1300Z 73 VRB02KT 31.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 VRB00KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 VRB02KT 33.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1600Z 76 VRB02KT 34.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1700Z 77 19003KT 36.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1800Z 78 VRB02KT 31.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB00KT 30.3F SNOW 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 12:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 VRB01KT 30.8F SNOW 11:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 11:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 31.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0
250110/2200Z 82 10003KT 30.8F SNOW 10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0
250111/0000Z 84 06003KT 30.6F SNOW 12:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 11:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0

Dekalb-Peachtree:
250110/1300Z 73 VRB01KT 31.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 VRB01KT 32.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 VRB02KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1600Z 76 VRB02KT 34.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1700Z 77 17005KT 35.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1800Z 78 17003KT 31.5F SNPL 7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.020 7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.02 74| 26| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 14003KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 9:1| 0.6|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 9:1| 0.8|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 9:1| 0.8|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.12 88| 0| 12
250110/2200Z 82 11003KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 9:1| 0.8|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.15 88| 0| 12
250110/2300Z 83 11004KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 9:1| 0.8|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.20 88| 0| 12
250111/0000Z 84 10005KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 10:1| 1.6|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.28 90| 0| 10

Fulton County Airport:
250110/1300Z 73 VRB01KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1400Z 74 VRB02KT 33.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1500Z 75 VRB02KT 35.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1600Z 76 VRB02KT 35.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1700Z 77 19004KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0
250110/1800Z 78 16003KT 31.4F SNPL 8:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.033 8:1| 0.3|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.03 85| 15| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
250110/1900Z 79 VRB02KT 32.1F SNPL 8:1| 0.3|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.040 8:1| 0.6|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.07 80| 20| 0
250110/2000Z 80 VRB02KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.04|| 0.00|| 0.024 8:1| 0.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.10 74| 14| 12
250110/2100Z 81 VRB02KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 8:1| 0.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.13 85| 0| 15
250110/2200Z 82 11003KT 33.0F SNOW 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 8:1| 0.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.17 85| 0| 15
250110/2300Z 83 11003KT 32.8F SNOW 9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054 7:1| 1.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.22 86| 0| 14
250111/0000Z 84 10004KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 7:1| 1.1|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.30 88| 0| 12

Gainesville:

250110/1900Z 79 20004KT 30.5F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
250110/2000Z 80 VRB00KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
250110/2100Z 81 VRB01KT 29.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036 10:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
250110/2200Z 82 VRB02KT 30.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0
250110/2300Z 83 VRB02KT 29.6F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
250111/0000Z 84 VRB02KT 29.6F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 100| 0| 0

 

[Mahomeless]

View attachment 160821
RGEM definitely a further north solution. It’s on the table

Extreme northern outlier

 

[Storm5]

View attachment 160821
RGEM definitely a further north solution. It’s on the table

Meh that's at the end of the rgem its money inside 36 hours

 

[Bigedd09]

I think this GFS run will be better

 

[Mahomeless]

Meh that's at the end of the rgem its money inside 36 hours

I may have missed your current thoughts somewhere through the pages, but I always enjoy reading a locals perspective to bounce off my own. What is your current thinking out our way along and north of I-20?