This storm is largely just using the initial conditions to form snow and loses the snow growth to sleet then cold rain. There will be some narrow ZR but I can’t see it being noteworthy given temps rising or near 32.
Is that bad news?
First n/s s/w was weaker at 21hr, more separation from the Baja Low. I don't have it out past 21 on TT. But looked better on a map posted later in the run.
For your location maybe not so much
NAM looking solid with the track.
I’d say that is a good take. The thing that keeps me hopeful is I believe the thing that is hurting them right now is the thing that is helping us. Flatter setup instead of a nuke to our west sucking all of the available cold air into it and onto the wrong side of the mountains.
This run def showing the point RAH made about it being mostly just rain or snow.
Yes largely snow or cold rain. Don’t see a big ice storm for anyone. There will be sleet in between
If you check the 500 vort, you'll see the tilt going neutral and really pulling in the moisture and pushing the cold in too. If extrapolated I'd bet we would see someone hitting high totals and a huge streak from GA into NC
Ensembles look amazing for us who are so snow starved. Seems like even us in eastern Wake County will score. That NAM run really did put a dot on the exclamation mark!
I think that will end up being too warm. I think those areas will be okay honestly unless something changes.
That rain line is still too close for my liking..
Rain and snow line is too close to my house. I mean I am in the snow but I need it alittle more south of me to feel comfortable.
It really has been awhile since we have something that in that 4-5 day window basically had all the models trending into 1 general distilled direction and sure their are variants in all the models but the overall theme is the same and that lately hasn't been something you see till maybe at most 48 to 56 hours out.
If this does indeed become a Miller A event, every foot of elevation will help.
Lot of moving parts, no doubt. A perfect-timed phase and many of us may score bigly. But we've already seen what happens if we get too much. Northern and western parts of the board are in great shape to see something wintry no doubt, but that CLT to RDU and east corridor in NC are really toeing the line.
