What's funny about these ensembles is I'm counting the ones that don't perform for mby since there are far fewer now.
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
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RTRwx
Member
I think it's dependent on your location. 850 warm nose is more likely further east as the low deepens. The 700 warm nose in AL, GA and southern TN depicted by the Canadian is a little weird so I'm tossing it in my wishcast. lol.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm not going to dismiss the cmc/RGEM but if the uk and euro are still holding and increasing I'd lean skeptical. It could be late to sorting the energy however so if it flips at 0z or tomorrow while the others hold, it could be biased.
SimeonNC
Member
Stormsfury
Member
Canadian is driving the SFC low well inland and early Ala, like the GFS did the previous couple model cycles... redevelopment of a secondary off Savannah. Hybrid A/B.
I-85 N and W try to stay all snow, but southeast of there it’s a changeover to an icy mess in NC
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RTRwx
Member
You don't see many 5-6 inch ensemble snow means 3-4 days out here in Southeast TN. Love the GEFS trends for this region.
Bigedd09
Member
UKIE is warmer through 72. and weaker
Showmeyourtds
Member
Ukie..
UK at 93
WXinCanton
Member
Ukmet 10:1
UKMET looks like a North Georgia bullseye
Snowflowxxl
Member
CMC and UK show this is far from a slam dunk. Rain is still in play for many
RTRwx
Member
UK Precip maps on Pivotal don't match the Snow Totals. I can't see sounding data, but based on the temp profiles, most of North Alabama will be snow where it depicts rain (as shown on snow total maps).
Stormlover
Member
almost always will be, but this is a classic storm for a lot of us
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UKMET has less QPF but it is a snowy solution for the majority of NC
Stormlover
Member
Well, that has sure escalated 
yeap some wonky stuff with the Precip types maps on Pivotal it seems based on temp profiles your right and the Snow totals maps seem to imply that it was similar last night
ITUSETOSNOW
Member
So, you're not happy with 4-5?
Is the UKMET warmer this run? It looks like changeover to rain or mostly rain for folks south of RDU. I do not like the position of the high pressure at all sitting off the Bahamas instead of north of us helping to pump down colder air into the storm.
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This map would lead me to believe that a chunk of GEFS members have coastal involvement
Except me, 0.2 inches lol never have liked that model anyway.
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Yeah some of the precip maps on pivotal aren't aligning with soundings, could be rate issues but the snow maps solid 2-4
Example: map showing rain with this sounding, borderline bl but below freezing through the column
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It looks better in general for NGA. I think we're still sitting good. Most trends seem to be pushing it towards a Miller A style storm which will make the western areas decrease more.
To get Athens under the bullseye
carolinachaos
Member
Being that our “system” is now being sampled. Would we say that these newest outcomes are more plausible?
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How does the UK track compare with the previous run?
packfan98
Moderator
This is the Storm Thread, not the banter thread. Please report there for complaining or wishing the model would move 50 miles in a certain direction.
packfan98
Moderator
The track was similar, didn't have enough energy to bomb out and keep more folks in the snow category I think. @griteater, what did you see?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Well so far the 12z runs have the GFS looking better for many of us and the UKMET and CMC looking worse. We'll see if the Euro continues to show a winter wonderland for most of us.
Stormlover
Member
Athens is, Athens, Al. ;-)
The National Blend of Models feels like a good starting point for totals
Even with a more slider-miller A type low track I think mixing could be more widespread than the snowier models indicate. nothing's stopping that WAA, but a better track helps at least push that area of mixing south for longer on the front end. Just gotta find that sweet spot that juuuust barely is able to stay 0c throughout.
also, sfc temps will be a concern. never count out sfc temps. its gonna be close for many
also, sfc temps will be a concern. never count out sfc temps. its gonna be close for many
NCWeatherhound
Member
Hmmm: UKIE's 12Z has FAY in rain Sat. morning, but model soundings are all snow. Sensing some shenanigans. Wait for the ensemble before burning any Team UKIE jerseys. 
I have not looked close... But is it possible to that the type maps are showing rain because the dendritic growth region is not adequately saturated?.....
Things to look at for sure
Things to look at for sure