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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

SoutheastRidge said:
Shawn said:
Anyone that doesn't know Eric Webb yet, check him out here on twitter.  BTW Eric, got you set up as a met student over here.  I figure people might not exactly know you're a beast yet.
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I remember him from Am Wx. The dude is a genius!
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He's here. ;)
 
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
 
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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I think we are gonna see our energy trend stronger over the next few days. the stronger the Better as it will be able to survive any pull from the northern stream. Plus more times than not we see SWs trend stronger as time rolls forward

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
So it looks more and more like NC is going to get the big daddy this go around. The closer we get the more I feel this isn't a northern middle Tennessee storm but that's ok with me. I'm really hoping Atlanta and everyone south of Nashville gets a good snow out of this system as I know it's much harder to come by south of here.
 
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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I don't see a cutter or anything like some ensemble members think.  I see a weak, destroyed wave being sent to the middle of the country that might can spark something in the upper Southeast at worst.

I think when all is said and done, someone in Northern AL, GA, into Upstate SC and NC are in a better spot right now.   Us down here in the Deep South want the 18z GFS run.  I do like the Euro is taking a slight step to GFS though.
 
Shawn said:
Cary_Snow95 said:
I want to go ahead and give a huge pat on the back to you guys getting this site up and running in time for winter after TW. The site looks great, functions great, and has great people in it! Thank yall
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Thanks!  We are doing our best to streamline and make the site stable for everyone to enjoy and talk about the weather.  The forum software upgrade will hopefully allow us to really send this site off on another level.
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That sounds great Shawn. I like it already, the main reason being it's great to see all of you again. I don't post much but I do follow these forums religiously during the winter. Thanks for being here for us.
 
tonysc said:
Shawn said:
Cary_Snow95 said:
I want to go ahead and give a huge pat on the back to you guys getting this site up and running in time for winter after TW. The site looks great, functions great, and has great people in it! Thank yall
Click to expand...

Thanks!  We are doing our best to streamline and make the site stable for everyone to enjoy and talk about the weather.  The forum software upgrade will hopefully allow us to really send this site off on another level.
Click to expand...

That sounds great Shawn. I like it already, the main reason being it's great to see all of you again. I don't post much but I do follow these forums religiously during the winter. Thanks for being here for us.
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Awesome to have you here Tony.  :heart:
 
Shawn said:
bouncycorn said:
What do you all think about the major trend towards more interaction and a flatter s/w in the pacific northwest?
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 Us down here in the Deep South want the 18z GFS run.
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 Yeah, even way down here in the SAV, the 18Z GFS gave a very rare ~0.15" of rain equivalent mixed wintry precip. at 32 or colder (ZR to IP to SN)(tail end it is 29)! That would be a very rare event down here. Even the 0Z GFS, due to that very far south track and help from the cold high to the north, gives us here IP mixed with the rain and then changing to all IP late. It is 33-34 during most of this....very close call while 0.57" of qpf falls. Even that would be an uncommon occurrence here. This is the type of thing that can occur with a sfc low moving with such an uncommonly south track...moving through south-central FL on the 0Z GFS...while there is a cold high to the north. Even the 18Z's move through north-central FL can do this kind of thing, especially when there is a cold high to the north.

 Tracks more often than not trend north and climo says this is rare. Combining that with the fact there's little agreement with the other models tell me this is a low probability situation as of now. However, there being a small chance for something wintry in SAV-CHS is itself noteworthy.
 
Larry (GAWX) you are invaluable on these forums. Your ATL data or GA as a whole is unmatched.
 
EPS mean ticks up for the southeast. Some support for EURO OP and others target TN/Apps. Better EPS run compared to 12Z though!!
 
Shortwave on 6Z NAM is looking good. Starting the day off with positive trends continuing. Night all!
 
Control had a coastal it seems from the snowfall maps. Better EPS run.
 
EPS snowfall ( i know its empty, but better than 12z! ):

iknownotpretty.png
 
Thanks Storm. Gawd help me tonight. So amped the new site is working okay so far!
 
Uhm is the long range (crap range) NAM shearing out by HR 54? :(
 
Looks like NAM is gonna send it down through Northern Cali, no fail yet on that model.

Might be sending a weaker wave. Impressive.
 
Not much from 06z NAM. I wasn't a super fan. Not as bad as 00z run but not great. Piece of deeper vort sticks in the back.. likely says "nah, im good" and sticks back away from the n. branch.
 
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
 
Olaf said:
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
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Easiest way to put it:

1) Operational comes out and you check the model.
2) Control runs which is a lower resolution run from the operational.
3) Off that lower resolution run, ensemble members are generated.
4) You get ensemble members along with the operational and control.
5) A mean is made from the ensemble members as an average.

Long story short, the main run of a model is best, second best is control and third best is ensemble agreement for the most part.

It is really important for models to have agreement with their operational counterparts.  Earlier today, the Euro run (12z) had agreement from it's own ensemble system and turned many people off.

I'm sure Google can give a better answer though. :p
 
Shawn said:
Olaf said:
What is the difference in the control and mean? Maybe I should just google that...
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Easiest way to put it:

1) Operational comes out and you check the model.
2) Control runs which is a lower resolution run from the operational.
3) Off that lower resolution run, ensemble members are generated.
4) You get ensemble members along with the operational and control.
5) A mean is made from the ensemble members as an average.

Long story short, the main run of a model is best, second best is control and third best is ensemble agreement for the most part.

It is really important for models to have agreement with their operational counterparts.  Earlier today, the Euro run (12z) had agreement from it's own ensemble system and turned many people off.

I'm sure Google can give a better answer though. :p
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Thanks a lot. That makes sense.
 
tues am discussion from Huntsville:
Friday starts the long term period off cold as the reinforcing front
that moved through overnight brings much colder air to the area with
850mb temps falling to -8C to -10C. With continued cold advection
and clouds lingering, highs will only reach to around 31-34 degrees.

Models are still in disagreement on how to handle the next system. A
weak upper wave develops over the Texas panhandle Friday afternoon
with a piece of energy ejecting eastward across the area. Early this
week the GFS was showing some light QPF with this system (dry now)
and now the 03/00z ECMWF is showing some through Friday evening.
There is still moisture above about 750mb through the day but dew
points are in the teens and the low levels are very dry. We could
see some flurries/light snow with this but would think whatever fell
would evaporate and not cause any accumulation.

Things get slightly more interesting Friday night as the upper
trough digs into LA and a surface low forms along the gulf coast.
This low tracks E-NE along the gulf through the day Saturday. This
is a good snow set up for the local area especially with the arctic
air mass and lows Friday night in the lower 20s (wind chills in the
lower teens). The ECMWF/CMC are much stronger with this system and
therefore more QPF with the GFS being much weaker. If the GFS
verifies, maybe we get a dusting of snow. With the ECWMF, measurable
snow would occur. Given the extreme run to run inconsistency with
this event, it is too early to talk about accumulations or timing so
a chance of light snow will suffice.
 
06z GFS is coming soon... maps initialized. Lets see if it's a lame wave or a good one. ;)
 
Through 24, looks like 12z & 18z & 00z.
 
Looks like the Northern Stream is going to leave that energy behind. Likely a good run again. Lets see. (will take a bit to come out)

Maybe a bit more shear/interaction vs previous runs.. but so far nothing major.
 
Yeah, wave is on the way. Might be a bit more South.
 
Snow already across Northern TX, North Central Arkansas, Trying to spread into Northern MS by hour 78 per 06z GFS.

Dropping into Southern Arkansas, Northern LA, NE TX.

Likely a big run for the South/Deep South.
 
Well, FFC finally put out a new forecast discussion. Confidence is growing:

Models are is a lot better agreement in the extended periods but
there are still some differences in timing and intensity. The
extended period starts off dry with a weak high pressure ridge
dominating the region. The ECMWF keeps a bit more moisture across
the area than the GFS but its still expected to be precipitation
free. They both also show a weakening frontal boundary moving
south out of the northern plains Thu and pushing into N GA friday.
Again the ECMWF brings a bit more moisture into the state than the
GFS but they are both showing almost the same solution. this front
moves into the GA with another wave/frontal boundary moving into
the state Fri/Sat. Again the ECMWF is a bit wetter with this next
front and about 6 to 12 hours faster with the system moving
through. With the models coming into a bit better agreement am
able to up pops a bit in the extended with the two frontal system
and getting a bit better handle on the expected rain/snow mix
across the area. As these two system push into the area cold air
is already in place so will see some mixed or frozen precipitation
mainly across N GA. There will be some areas across central GA
that see some mixing but its still a bit to early to try and get a
handle on accumulations if any. High pressure builds back into the
area Sat night/Sunday with dry conditions expected through the
end of the forecast.
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If you live from central AL, GA, SC into NC this run will likely be as big as 18z! Hell, it caught up and may be good for C. MS even.
 
Low is further south this run. Gonna be a good run for many except for the western regions of the Carolinas and the northern tier where less precipitations makes it into the region.
 
Quite a Winter Storm for the Deeper parts of the South. Will post snow maps soon.
 
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