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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Can't wait to see what the Nam says about this storm, when the time frame is here
 
I'm not sure why the blue diamond with the white V isn't showing next to my name on tapatalk

It should reappear soon.

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Site does look great. I am finally trying Tapatalk

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This site is home to me, because I know my friends made it happen. Thanks guys
 
Nam looks good...And as Eric said looks to be still in the GFS camp...


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SD said:
MichaelJ said:
Not to rain on the parade but it is really hard for me to go away from the EURO in this "model war"

I kind of agree here. I have enjoyed watching these GFS runs but a part of me is screaming....reality is somewhere else


+1 x 10^100


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Sorry for the major changes so fast guys, but it was extremely needed and it was best to do it when people were logging on to get help from each other to get everything like bookmarks and tapatalk working on their end again.
 
Looks like the NAM is going to close it off near Portland. It certainly handed off some energy but its still a stout wave
 
At 35 the NAM is having a good amount of stream interaction. Its certainly a trend from the 12z run and its much more than the 18z GFS. Not the best trend guys
 
I'm just so glad to be tracking a potential winter storm on the NAM. It's been a LONG time since we've gotten one this close. Hope we can keep it !
 
There's a bit more phasing with the northern branch this run... Starting to give a nod to ECMWF beyond 30 HR
18z
namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png



New run


namconus_z500_vort_us_39.png
 
Something tells me this isn't going to end well for us in the coming days...I hope I'm wrong.


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Webberweather53 said:
There's a bit more phasing with the northern branch this run... Starting to give a nod to ECMWF beyond 30 HR
18z
namconus_z500_vort_us_41.png



New run


namconus_z500_vort_us_39.png
Yeah that's a clear euro look

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Definitely a step towards the ECMWF/CMC camp thru 48 HR. Every run has been progressively trending that way over the course of the past few days on the NAM
 
I got attacked for giving bad PBP earlier talking about watching the 500mb charts and making sure the Euro solution from earlier wasn't right! Late range NAM I am not a good fan of though. GFS will be telling soon.

We do not want to see it start to go more towards the Euro. The last run was actually not bad for a lot of deep South areas to get snow. If we see a noticeable trend to have even more Northern Stream interaction, that is bad.
 
Looks like the northern stream is further west this run which would make it easier for stream interaction as the NAM is moving the energy a good bit faster

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I'm back thanks Shawn....

and as SD mentioned earlier there will be some interaction just how much is probably yet to be seen, hopefully the Euro gives us a tad bit of separation tonight and steps towards a model compromise
 
NAM is getting squashed right now....part in the northern branch and the other part trying to tuck west...not a good start for sure.
 
I have very low confidence that the GFS is going to look good tonight...


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If everything goes completely to the Euro and there's no meeting in the middle, then there's no reason to ever look at the GFS again.
 
This isn't channeling the energy as quickly or as severely as the CMC so by 84 we might have a decent look.
 
Once again, it's too early to start to panic.

If the interaction starts showing up for multiple runs consecutively, then we can begin to raise alarms. Plus, were looking at the NAM beyond 48 hours.
 
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