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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

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[/quote]
Yeah I remember either 1999 or 2000 when I was stationed at Bragg. we had a system come thru and wasn't expecting anything in FAY, and ended up with a pretty good storm.

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Wonder if Spann feel outta his chair and threw his laptop after that run lol jk.

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swbamaweatherguy link said:
NWS Jackson MS AFD  bit the hook and likes the GFS!!!
Click to expand...
yep. This from Jackson:  this will bring increasing
chances for wintry precipitation late in the week into early next
weekend. Some chances for wintry precip are possible next Friday and
possibly into Saturday (if the GFS is correct on slower solution).
Continued to lean toward wet and colder solution due to consistency
of the Euro/GFS the past couple of days, the GFS coming in line with
the upper pattern and ensemble support. Left slight chance POPS in
Friday and possibly into Saturday. Looking at forecast temperature
profiles, boundary layer, including surface wet-bulb temperatures, and
temperatures aloft seem to be supportive of winter weather, including
light snow, per Euro/Canadian, along and north of I-20 Friday morning
and down to I-20 Saturday morning, per the GFS. These timing issues
and details will have to be ironed out the next few days. This model
agreement and less divergence could change but wintry weather
potential looks to be on the increase later this week.
 
metwannabe link said:
Well the GEFS is another thing of beauty, increase in the mean

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Click to expand...

Pd8Bf06Sas4yQ.gif
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg7710#msg7710 date=1483399819]
Well the GEFS is another thing of beauty, increase in the mean

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Click to expand...

Pd8Bf06Sas4yQ.gif

[/quote]
LMAI...Yeah kinda like Oparah...here's some snow for aeverybody

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David Glenn at News Channel9 didn't pull the trigger but, he's still going with snow showers for now.  The key words from him was "for now".  His words "this will have to be closely monitored".  Also, he agrees the cold is in-place for CHA area.  Question this time is precep???
 
tellicowx link said:
Wonder if Spann feel outta his chair and threw his laptop after that run lol jk.

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Click to expand...
Haha, that's what I was thinking lol

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Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


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The 18z GEFS members are pretty evenly split on snow totals for Chattanooga:

<2" - 7 members
2-5" - 6 members
6"+ - 6 members
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg7708#msg7708 date=1483399688]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yeah I remember either 1999 or 2000 when I was stationed at Bragg. we had a system come thru and wasn't expecting anything in FAY, and ended up with a pretty good storm.

Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk


[/quote]

I think you're referring to the January 24-25 2000 storm, completely different set of circumstances in that case, but the forecast confidence was similar (relatively low)... I personally wouldn't mind getting a foot of snow in Fayetteville, we haven't seen that since December 1958, when as much as 23" was recorded in Pope AFB & Fort Bragg... Most of the counties immediately surrounding Fayetteville have seen at least one (in some cases more) 1 ft+ snow storms since... February 9-11 1973, December 22-24 1989, January 24-25 2000, and January 2-3 2002 were certainly some very close calls and storms that immediately come to mind

December-11-12-1958-NC-Snowmap.png
 
mydoortotheworld link said:
[quote author=ForsythSnow link=topic=80.msg7723#msg7723 date=1483400435]
GEFS members almost all look like all in or not at all.
Click to expand...
we should be very scared of the presence of e6,7,10, & 17
[/quote]
But with e3,13,18, and 21, it balances it out. Two extremes balance each other.
 
tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg7707#msg7707 date=1483399574]
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
Click to expand...
Wouldn't that put more into play....If I'm understanding you right?

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[/quote]

Yes it would... Even if the low pressure track doesn't change at all on the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET, the correction for this bias alone could shift the axis of precipitation 50-100 miles northward. Just as recently as hurricane Matthew, we've seen this systematic bias wrt isentropic lifting play itself out time and time again in the models and I wouldn't be surprised to see it here
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


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[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
 
Hey folks just another reminder that we may have to enter a storm mode state later this week if things continue which means we may have to disable guest viewing. All you have to do to make sure you don't get left out is join.  It takes 30 seconds and you aren't required to post.

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Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]

Exactly. It's really misleading to make ridiculous statements about one model over the other. No one would fault him for saying that significant "snowfall is possible but there is considerable uncertainty".


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Stormlover link said:
GEFS ens chance of over an inch is 60-70% up here....
15870772_1539836889377297_574302369_n.png

and of over 6 inches is 20-30%
15841178_1539837019377284_733029805_n.png
Click to expand...
Will l have a new Grandbaby in Florence and this would be a good weekend to visit and make her a snowman lol
 
Ron Burgundy link said:
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

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The Euro and EPS tend to be the most accurate model but it did fail with either this system now or one that's happened recently. I think our ultimate answer is going to trend closer to the Euro but not completely toward it.
 
The 12z Euro is in line with the GFS pretty much. The Euro is warmer, less moisture as well. I'm not agreeing with the less moisture the Euro has cause the low will cross over the NE Gulf (If track verifies). In the northeastern GOM, the water surface temperatures are warm. Warm waters mean, high QPF. This is why I don't agree with the less moisture the Euro has.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


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Click to expand...
Our chances just skyrocketed lol

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[/quote]
Burns used to be aggressive when forecasting snow. Now he tries his best to put dampers on snow forecasts


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I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
 
Tagat link said:
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
 
sigwx link said:
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
 
NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]

Burns sucks and he is a troll.. we used to talk a lot via DM and i finally figured out why he hates winter so much.. Its bc he said the winter and snow in the south is more dangerous and costly than severe weather and heat...
 
NForsythWX link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]
It's my thinking, the Euro only updates 2 times a day. The GFS has been consistent on each of it's runs from today. We even had similar set ups from past runs on the GFS. Normally the GFS is verified at this range.

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Thunder Wives Tale
We just had lightning and thunder here in Marietta. Guess we'll see if that old bit of folklore comes true this weekend


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Tagat link said:
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7747#msg7747 date=1483402513]
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
[/quote]It would be a nice if we could build a snowman. l have not had snow since Feb. 2010
 
The main thing we'll be looking for in this system seems like northern stream interaction. Some northern stream interaction is fine, but if there is too much interaction it's going to shear this wave out too much.

As long as this system is able to release from interaction with the NS without being weakened too much, I think we'll see a winter storm for someone in the southeast.
 
sigwx link said:
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7748#msg7748 date=1483402743]
[quote author=sigwx link=topic=80.msg7747#msg7747 date=1483402513]
[quote author=Tagat link=topic=80.msg7745#msg7745 date=1483402204]
I know we still have a ways to go but as it looks right now what should central AL be looking at. A dry powdery snow or a wet sloppy snow.
Click to expand...
If we get it would be wet.
[/quote]

That is what I thought. Last true powdery snow I remember was Jan 2014 here. Most every other snow was wet and sloppy. Great for building snowmen but rough on trees and power-lines.
[/quote]It would be a nice if we could build a snowman. l have not had snow since Feb. 2010
[/quote]

Every little snow we have had here since Jan 2014 only lasted a few hours and was gone. That being said we have missed on just about every little flurry that came since.
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=NForsythWX link=topic=80.msg7746#msg7746 date=1483402376]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg7739#msg7739 date=1483401554]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7733#msg7733 date=1483401066]
[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=80.msg7727#msg7727 date=1483400763]
[quote author=Ron Burgundy link=topic=80.msg7721#msg7721 date=1483400256]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg7702#msg7702 date=1483399465]
1e794320d52a252688e7b77078551911.png

LOL!!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Glenn will let you know about the 4" of snow about the time you're shoveling it off your driveway....
[/quote]
Where does he get this stuff? Does he have empirical evidence to support this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

He's always just played the odds when it comes to winter weather in NGA. He operates under the "none of the credit / all of the blame" mantra when it comes to early snow forecasts. I guess I can't blame him but when you see how definitive he is for the viewing public while we (enthusiasts) all know how fluid the situation is, it's maddening.
[/quote]
Glenn doesn't use a blend of models far as I know...the 0z Euro should be a completely different story. (More in line with GFS).

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk


[/quote]
What's this based on?
[/quote]

Burns sucks and he is a troll.. we used to talk a lot via DM and i finally figured out why he hates winter so much.. Its bc he said the winter and snow in the south is more dangerous and costly than severe weather and heat...
[/quote]
That doesn't make sense though. Ok I know this is banter material and I'll stop now but the danger and cost of winter weather in the south is PRECISELY why you give the models credence when they predict the possibility of winter weather. You can do so in a balanced manner without fear mongering.


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