Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?sigwx link said:
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Twenty minutes or so north.
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Twenty minutes or so north.
swbamaweatherguy
Member
NWS Jackson MS AFD bit the hook and likes the GFS!!!
sigwx
Member
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?ARCC link said:
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Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
WHEN WILL FFC ISSUE THEIR LATEST AFD?!
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Edit: The suspense is killing me.
Me too bud... what's the deal on NE MS and NW AL? Dry nose?JLL1973 link said:
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i really wouldnt worry right now. these systems usually trend northwest. we still in a good spot
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That run took the system further south into the Gulf before turning the corner and going up the coast. I think you guys are still in a good spot. The chances of this trending a lot further NW isn't that big with this system.
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RDUHeatIsland
Member
GEFS mean just a tad higher for central NC on the 18z.
Webberweather53 link said:
The northern stream wave will be entering the north america upper air network at 6-12z tomorrow, and the data should be ingested into the models by 0z Tue Night/Wed
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I think if there is going to be a big change in the models that's when it's going to happen.
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That mean isn't backing down!!
Hey Gawx, what does this possible winter storm analog to?
mydoortotheworld
Member
from my end on wxbell, it's still updatingaccu35 link said:
sigwx
Member
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.tellicowx link said:
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CummingWx
Guest
tellicowx link said:
Not sure, but this is one of the latest times I can remember them putting it out. I bet they're definitely shaking their heads as to which model to believe at this stage.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Webberweather53 link said:
We need more stream separation for the disturbance in the Pacific northwest to cut-off, amplify and slow down as it enters the Great basin and southwestern US
mydoortotheworld link said:
The northern stream is essentially the polar jet stream, while the southern stream is also known as the subtropical jet stream. Split flow over the Pacific with 2 defined streams (as we currently have) is often a necessary ingredient for overrunning/southern sliders in the southeastern US, mid-south, and southern plains. Split flow in the northeastern Pacific typically occurs when we observe a large-scale ridge in the vicinity of Alaska (-EPO), which usually retrogrades westward with time and moves towards the Bering Sea & far eastern Siberia (-WPO). Essentially, w/o going into much of the physical details why this occurs, -WPOs often lag -EPOs... Here's a nice animation of the NCEP Reanalysis top 20 -EPO days in January rolled forward a week and another animation showing the z500 in the week leading up to the top 20 -WPO days in January. Notice how the Alaskan ridge retrogrades westward into Bering Sea/Eastern Siberia, while the southeastern US ridge becomes increasingly amplified with time. This pattern evolution is virtually what we're gonna see later this week and into the following week, hence we can probably expect milder wx to (@ least try to) return by the middle portions of the month..
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thank you so much for explaining this for me. clears up a lot!
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.sigwx link said:
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I would say so...a lot of coordination going on trying to interrupt everything.
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I was wondering the same thing.
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.Snowfan link said:
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I would like to see the ensembles.
Stormlover
Member
From Jason Simpson of WHNT 19 in Huntsville
That sets us up for what could be a winter storm in the South on Friday and Saturday. Timing and accumulation are still very much in flux right now, so expect some major adjustments to the forecast for Friday and Saturday as we get a better handle on the situation.
Some guidance (American GFS) produces over 5†of snow for North Alabama, the European guidance shows only around 1†of snow, and the Canadian guidance has nothing but very cold weather.
That sets us up for what could be a winter storm in the South on Friday and Saturday. Timing and accumulation are still very much in flux right now, so expect some major adjustments to the forecast for Friday and Saturday as we get a better handle on the situation.
Some guidance (American GFS) produces over 5†of snow for North Alabama, the European guidance shows only around 1†of snow, and the Canadian guidance has nothing but very cold weather.
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.bouncycorn link said:
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Hahaha....sounds like the server and met saw the models and said yeah we don't want any part of this lol
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Louis
Member
What time will the CMC run ?
sigwx
Member
Do you think their talking to other officers such as BMX because they have not issue their AFD as of yet.tellicowx link said:
[/quote]
I would say so...a lot of coordination going on trying to interrupt everything.
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[/quote]Ya, BMX almost always has their AFD out before the 5pm news
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?sigwx link said:
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Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
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Looking at soundings, north of Montgomery to north of BHM would get anywhere from 4-10" depending on ratios. The only reason it doesn't show up is it has surface temps holding just above freezing for this area for the most part. I doubt that with heavy snow falling and thicknesses crashing.
But its all just sweet dreams at this point.
Louis
Member
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.bouncycorn link said:
How many forecasters do they have ?
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I would like to know why it matters what is in the forecast discussions this far out though? If the local offices mention Wintry in their discussion it is a much higher chance of happening? Calm down guys!
They're working on severe and are short one forecaster to the flu.Louis link said:
How many forecasters do they have ?
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They have plenty of forecasters, but are still down one unreplaced so it's even more stretched. Manager at FFC mentioned that they'll start talking about any winter event tomorrow.
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Nam0806
Member
Louis link said:
Tonight around 11:30-12. EST
LOL!!!
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sigwx
Member
Hey ARCC, how far are you from Rockford?ARCC link said:
[/quote]
Twenty minutes or so north.
[/quote]Okay your closer to Goodwater, l am about 35 miles west/southwest. How much snow in the sweet spot for you?
[/quote]
Looking at soundings, north of Montgomery to north of BHM would get anywhere from 4-10" depending on ratios. The only reason it doesn't show up is it has surface temps holding just above freezing for this area for the most part. I doubt that with heavy snow falling and thicknesses crashing.
But its all just sweet dreams at this point.
[/quote]I will take 4" and be very happy. Thanks ARCC
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CummingWx
Guest
Shawn link said:
No, but they're the professionals and likely have more data than does the general public (I'm guessing anyway), and it's always nice to see the thoughts of these professionals. Not saying the more educated mets on here don't, but again always nice to get the office's perspective on it too.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's worth mentioning here that even once we properly sample the primary features involved in this setup another issue we're going to have to contend w/ @ some pt in the short range is the dry biases most guidance has wrt isentropic upglide (likely to be the main lifting mechanism here). Models often underestimate its poleward extent and amplitude. The February 11 2014 storm is a good recent example of this that immediately comes to mind to me... I was in FAY and we were only expecting 1" at most but ended up w/ ~4" of snow
mydoortotheworld
Member
Well the GEFS is another thing of beauty, increase in the mean
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