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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

If a GFS and Euro blend give me half of what the GFS showed, then that's fine by me.
 
If the GFS continue to show the goods, then hopefully the Euro will eventually follow, I'm a long ways from jumping
 
accu35 link said:
If the GFS continue to show the goods, then hopefully the Euro will eventually follow, I'm a long ways from jumping
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I'm thinking that the Euro will eventually come more in line with the GFS.

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Matthew East on Facebook:

All talk of model biases, strengths & weaknesses, etc... all valid, but we're dealing with handling of one small feature a little differently over the next 48 hours resulting in HUGE end result differences.
 
12Z GFS Para coming in, pretty much in lock step with it's 6z run/12Z GFS Op...
 
12z GFS PARA holds serve...
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WXinCanton link said:
We should know pretty rather quickly on the 18z GFS if it blinks.
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The problem is, it won't be as good as the 12z so it will be a lemming city around here.


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I will be genuinely shocked if the 18z GFS caves to the Euro. I expect it not to change much other than cooling it on the totals.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=WXinCanton link=topic=80.msg7459#msg7459 date=1483390972]
We should know pretty rather quickly on the 18z GFS if it blinks.
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The problem is, it won't be as good as the 12z so it will be a lemming city around here.


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[/quote]
As long as everyone gets a fantasy foot then no!
 
What's the difference between the op and para? Do they crunch or sample data differently?


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Lookout elsewhere made a good point for you guys thinking about giving up.  Euro runs twice, not four times a day.  Include the Para and we end up with 6 GFS runs vs 2 Euro.
 
I'm honestly in the camp of tempering expectations, but I'm not jumping at this point.

Obviously, the 12z GFS seems too amplified to me, but it is a possibility and this potential event still bears watching.

Here's to hoping everyone gets something they want!
 
Deltadog03 link said:
New weather video up.....
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons/
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For the new guys trying to understand the models & this set up, take a few & watch Chris explain what's going on. 



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I think the Euro where it is now may be a good thing, as we will most likely see some NW trend start (almost always). GFS solution can't take much of a NW trend without hurting a lot of people. Either way, going to be a worthless week at work!
 
I'm saying the 18z GFS, stays the course, or slightly higher totals!!! That's right, SD gets 36"! Instead of the measly 33" at 12z! :)
 
So when is the event, no matter the size, suppose to begin?  Friday night or during the day sat?  I have saw both mentioned
 
Storm, I've seen you mention the NAM in non-positive terms quite a bit (Canadian too). Being somewhat a newbie, which model(s) should I pay attention to and which ones do I just pretend don't exist?
 
Storm5 link said:
all this NAM talk makes me chuckle

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Hey I chuckle at cmc talk too it gave me like 5 hurricanes this year, I only got one.... Lol

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tarheels2 link said:
So when is the event, no matter the size, suppose to begin?  Friday night or during the day sat?  I have saw both mentioned
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There are two waves.  Wave one is more of a TN/NC/Upper SC deal.  Might or might not do much.
Wave 2 time varies depending on how fast it ejects out of the West (if at all).
 
Storm5 link said:
all this NAM talk makes me chuckle

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Me too, we're not close enough to the short range to use the NAM

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Tarheel1 link said:
I'm saying the 18z GFS, stays the course, or slightly higher totals!!! That's right, SD gets 36"! Instead of the measly 33" at 12z! :)
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Only 36....I'm out on this one

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Shawn link said:
Lookout elsewhere made a good point for you guys thinking about giving up.  Euro runs twice, not four times a day.  Include the Para and we end up with 6 GFS runs vs 2 Euro.
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That is a great point to be honest. Ya euro is ultimately a better model but it's not always correct.
 
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
 
Eh, maybe a little more stream interaction vs 06/12z through 30. not much else to say right now.  by 36 it gets a 1 contour. lets see where she goes.
 
CummingWx link said:
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
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Trying to find a boat to paddle back to the office!  It is pouring!!!
 
CummingWx link said:
I wonder why FFC hasn't put out their afternoon AFD yet. Maybe due to questions regarding this system?
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Have to believe there's way too much uncertainty at this point.  I've got a 20% chance of snow on Friday/Sat based on their grids...best we can expect at this point.


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