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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]
Usually with a Gulf low, there will always be thunder storms down closer to the coastal area's. Sometimes those thunder storms can make it into colder air providing thunder snow. It just depends on the instability. The low should start "bombing" off the coast of the Atlantic.

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[/quote]
Well not exactly generally gulf thunderstorms interrupt moist inflow. Most of the thundersnow cases occurring across the south involved a closed upper low and steep lapse rates

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NorthBamaWeather link said:
Normally any convection along the Gulf Coast chokes off the moisture to the North.
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I'm not sure if the same applies to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast or not. I always hear about people up there wanting the low to bomb, but apparently that's not a good thing for us ?
 
18Z GEFS mean has near one inch of liquid equivalent near Atlanta on Saturday. Still several members with the moisture over the Gulf. Huge improvement in the mean overall though.
 
bouncycorn link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6401#msg6401 date=1483312744]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6379#msg6379 date=1483311572]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6371#msg6371 date=1483311259]
Checked surface water temps in the northern Gulf. Waters are warm, temps are in the 70s...some stations reporting close to 80. There will be some high QPF levels with this low. 

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Click to expand...
I think Larry can back me up on this, you don't want a " bomb" low in the gulf! Too much waa, and could even be convections robbing moisture influx! Only need, want a 1003-1014 mb,low
[/quote]

Mack,
I don't think he is saying he wants a bomb in the Gulf. I think he's just saying that even a very weak low with those warm SST's would produce a lot of QPF. The 18Z GFS has it at 1016 mb per my source. Per history, weak Gulf lows wit this kind of track have been associated with many very wet SE major winter storms with liquid equivalents up to 0.75-1"+ well north of the low in much of the cold sector in sonme cases.

Some history of 1016-18 mb Gulf lows:

1. The great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and great snowstorm for much of the Carolinas and far north GA of 1/1988 1/7/1988: 1018 mb
2. Another great 4" sleetstorm at Atlanta and big snow for the Carolinas 2/17-18/1979 1018 mb
3. The great blizzard of Feb. 1899: 2//11-12/1879 1017 mb

Translation:  You don't at all need or even want a strong low while in the Gulf.
[/quote]
Too strong of a low will push too much warm air.


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[/quote]
Not necessarily, it depends on track of low. Even with a weak low you can still get strong WAA.

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E4 would probably be the best for most on this board, except for maybe folks in TN. E4 would bury Montgomery !
 
Today's trends sure look great. Let's see if this holds as we get closer. Major winter storm is possible. I'd say 40% chance at this point for NGA. I would have said 10% this am.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
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E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most likely freezing rain and sleet, not snow.
 
RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
2fe9e24ae6ef44c40e54426f43b37a10.jpg



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E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most of that would be sleet on the southern edge I would think.
 
tellicowx link said:
Miss anything with the 18z run?

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Just your usual 18z foolishness!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=tellicowx link=topic=80.msg6427#msg6427 date=1483314037]
Miss anything with the 18z run?

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Just your usual 18z foolishness!
[/quote]
18z has a major winter  storm miller A.


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Being 5 or so days out really sucks because so much can go wrong. I just hope these next few days go by fast so we can hurry up to next weekend.
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=RollTide18 link=topic=80.msg6425#msg6425 date=1483313870]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=80.msg6409#msg6409 date=1483313171]
2fe9e24ae6ef44c40e54426f43b37a10.jpg



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Click to expand...

E4, E5, E20 please. Wonder what could cause those members to have such heavy totals around my area
[/quote]

Most of that would be sleet on the southern edge I would think.
[/quote]
not necessarily always the case....if the track is over the central gulf, that places those areas in the north and west quad...it could be depicting snowfall as well

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There is no such thing as an unreliable run. It depends on past runs, cause some past runs will agree with future runs. Also, it depends on other models. If they agree on similarities of another model, it doesn't make the run unreliable.

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For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
 
ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6432#msg6432 date=1483314306]
Being 5 or so days out really sucks because so much can go wrong. I just hope these next few days go by fast so we can hurry up to next weekend.
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Far better than the eleven, when we first saw this storm!
[/quote] Well yeah, at least we are getting closer to whatever happens whether its rain, snow, or nothing. Anything but cold and dry, that's the worst !!!!!
 
GaWx link said:
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
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What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
 
getting close to a big run...give it about another 24 hrs.

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modelwatcher link said:
16/20 18Z GEFS members have snow for Atlanta next weekend. Cash out now please?
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Maybe we should just all take the week off from this forum so that our hopes are not smashed and we just assume what the models are showing today will be the end result.
 
That's one of the sweetest gefs runs I've ever seen. Several that crush central and south central Alabama. Awesome mean!
 
I'm about to go live on my Facebook weather page, called North Georgia Winter Weather Information. Come on by and say hi and ask me questions.

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SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
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What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
 
Ensembles have been dancing around this idea for days now...and the OPs have been kinda playing out like they used too. Cutter, then suppress /shred it, then start merging into a solution around day 4. I remember the Christmas storm, talk weather was going nuts with cliff divers cause the OPs were all going to Cuba and shredding it. I believe it was Shane who said give it time then. I'm getting older and my memory isn't what it used to be, but this seems to repeat itself when models are trying to deal with a Miller A track.

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GaWx link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote] Does it show for Dahlonega or is Gainesville the closest city it shows ?
 
GaWx link said:
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
I take it that the zr has been relegated to the south. Towards Macon/Augusta?
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6445#msg6445 date=1483314982]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg6438#msg6438 date=1483314574]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6436#msg6436 date=1483314439]
For the ATL metro area per my interpretations of MeteoStar, the 18Z GFS gives the ATL airport about 2" of SN followed by ~2.5" of IP. It gives NE ATL (PDK) about 4" of SN and 1.5-2" of IP. I see almost no ZR at these locations.
Click to expand...
What is it showing for  Gainesville ?
[/quote]

GVL per MeteoStar gets about 6" of mainly SN but probably with a little IP mixed in.
[/quote] Does it show for Dahlonega or is Gainesville the closest city it shows ?
[/quote]

GVL is closest. You'd be all snow and would get ~5" per maps.
 
this question is for SD preferably but anyone can answer it. What do you think about the s/w out in pacific? Will it come out properly or get sucked into the low in pacific and it ends up being northern stream dominance? Isnt that the key to if a system happens or not? Thanks kevin
 
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