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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6136#msg6136 date=1483290486]
the cmc is horrible

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I second that!


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[/quote] yes, lol I agree. I was just saying I've seen cases like these before with this setup, where the CMC had performed good. But no doubt at all, it's not the brightest one out there
 
Storm5 link said:
the cmc is horrible

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What makes you think the CMC is horrible? Is it the temps being so cold?

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6136#msg6136 date=1483290486]
the cmc is horrible

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What makes you think the CMC is horrible? Is it the temps being so cold?

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[/quote]

I assume Storm5 is referring to the CMC's longterm track record, which is not good compared to the Euro, GFS, and UKMET. It is not nicknamed the Crazy Uncle for nothing. That nickname even came from JB! So, even he recognizes that it is wild.
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6148#msg6148 date=1483291413]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6136#msg6136 date=1483290486]
the cmc is horrible

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What makes you think the CMC is horrible? Is it the temps being so cold?

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[/quote]

I assume Storm5 is referring to the CMC's longterm track record, which is not good compared to the Euro, GFS, and UKMET. It is not nicknamed the Crazy Uncle for nothing. That nickname even came from JB! So, even he recognizes that it is wild.
[/quote]
yes this ^^^^

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Thanks storm. That's a good looking mean. So are the ensembles onto something?
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6151#msg6151 date=1483291628]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6148#msg6148 date=1483291413]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6136#msg6136 date=1483290486]
the cmc is horrible

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Click to expand...
What makes you think the CMC is horrible? Is it the temps being so cold?

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[/quote]

I assume Storm5 is referring to the CMC's longterm track record, which is not good compared to the Euro, GFS, and UKMET. It is not nicknamed the Crazy Uncle for nothing. That nickname even came from JB! So, even he recognizes that it is wild.
[/quote]
yes this ^^^^

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[/quote]
The cmc might not be the best but it's solution is well within the GFS Euro ensemble spread. While I'm not going to say it's right, given the model fluctuations over the last 36 hrs it's as valid as any.

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I can't check from my phone but did the 12z gfs take away the zr threat that the 6z had?
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
I can't check from my phone but did the 12z gfs take away the zr threat that the 6z had?
Click to expand...
No, and it actually got larger too, as it now extends well into the Eastern 3/4 of northern Alabama, and down to Macon area. Totals stayed about the same for your area, but would still cause problems.
 
Snowfan link said:
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=80.msg6161#msg6161 date=1483292803]
I can't check from my phone but did the 12z gfs take away the zr threat that the 6z had?
Click to expand...
No.
[/quote]
If someone would post a map I would appreciate it.
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg6163#msg6163 date=1483292897]
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=80.msg6161#msg6161 date=1483292803]
I can't check from my phone but did the 12z gfs take away the zr threat that the 6z had?
Click to expand...
No.
[/quote]
If someone would post a map I would appreciate it.
[/quote]
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
SD link said:
[quote author=bhs1975 link=topic=80.msg6167#msg6167 date=1483293195]
59b1bc86f991205392407076105b1a0d.png


Look familiar?


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Shhh

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[/quote]
The -NAO was stronger, and there doesn't appear to be a ridge in Siberia this time around. Sure, history can repeat itself, but it probably has a higher chance of being something entirely new.
 
Here in NC where things stand at the moment. Cold is a certain. We have 2 waves that are gonna provide 2 opportunities.  Worse case scenerio I'm seeing, gauging so far is wave 1 gets sucked into the pj and we get a widespread 1-3 event ns dominated with low qpf and high ratio and whiff on wave 2 as it dampens out. Best opportunity /highest gamble is we get a novelty event from wave 1 few flakes to maybe trace to 1 inch at best, but wave 2 gets the best ride across the conus and maximizes the polar jet positioning,timing and we get a nice hit maybe big dog from 3-8 inches depending on a multitude of if ands an butts.
Players are on the field and how ever it shakes out we should be gratefull. Personally I'm willing to root for number 2 scenerio even at risk we end up empty handed. Scenerio 1 like gfs has been consistently showing is a gurantee most of NC would see atleast a inch and a few would hit lollipop of 2-3. BUT it totally takes everyone else out of the game as wave 2 big dog or anything from wave 2, even for us would be off the table.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6155#msg6155 date=1483292326]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6151#msg6151 date=1483291628]
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6148#msg6148 date=1483291413]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6136#msg6136 date=1483290486]
the cmc is horrible

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Click to expand...
What makes you think the CMC is horrible? Is it the temps being so cold?

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[/quote]

I assume Storm5 is referring to the CMC's longterm track record, which is not good compared to the Euro, GFS, and UKMET. It is not nicknamed the Crazy Uncle for nothing. That nickname even came from JB! So, even he recognizes that it is wild.
[/quote]
yes this ^^^^

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[/quote]
The cmc might not be the best but it's solution is well within the GFS Euro ensemble spread. While I'm not going to say it's right, given the model fluctuations over the last 36 hrs it's as valid as any.

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[/quote]
while i agree, I was speaking on the fact it's last in verification at almost all leads. short medium and LR. I Should have been more clear

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If the 12z GFS is something close to true, I actually wouldn't mind it here. It's fairly mild ice and ice can be pretty to look at, it's when it's getting into .25+ accumulations that it starts getting bad.

And if something close to January 2000 happens, that actually gave my area some snow before it warmed up overnight and melted it. I didn't remember it as I was very young but my dad's personal observation from it was that it was snowing pretty hard over that day, and it was starting to accumulate, and since it was the first time that his daughter had seen snow he was very excited about the possibility of playing in it in the morning...but it was gone in the morning.
 
Holy cow at the cold snap that's coming at the end of this week. Looks nasty and it looks like it's going to go on for longer than usual. Looks like a Friday to Tuesday cold snap.

If this solution is close to true it looks like a really quick ice event to rain and it's separated from the first wave we were talking about at first.
 
WOW the differences with the energy in pac nw is amazing...GFS way off the coast and euro just inland.  hr 84
 
Deltadog03 link said:
WOW the differences with the energy in pac nw is amazing...GFS way off the coast and euro just inland.  hr 84
Click to expand...
Is that good?
 
Yeah, I remember that bad ZR storm in 2000. The power was out over 24 hrs if I remember correctly. I remember trees limbs were hanging down to the ground and tree snapping every several seconds.

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Snowfan link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6175#msg6175 date=1483294398]
WOW the differences with the energy in pac nw is amazing...GFS way off the coast and euro just inland.  hr 84
Click to expand...
Is that good?
[/quote]
yes we don't want it hanging around off the coast

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EURO is gonna try something I think...Energy diving south through the rockies...still attached to pac stuff...but NOTHING like GFS
 
Nice, the Euro has the energy slipping below that high that is sitting over the northern Rockies. That's what we want. I'm looking at the 500mb heights.

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That dies out by 120....energy trying to drop in from the west, but very flat....some moisture starting to pool over gulf.  H120
 
Moisture trying to ride up into panhandle AL and GA by 126...verbatim not cold enough, but looks** will compare later, but looks colder than 00z run.
 
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