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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Not sure I agree with the GFS on 850 temps. Strong 1032 block to our north and the cold air is displaced by a very weak low? Yeah, not gonna happen. If this solution occured, I'd say 1-2" right along i-20.
 
good place to be this far out no doubt. Hopefully that energy can consolidate and survive the journey . cause this run isn't what we want

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bouncycorn link said:
Not sure I agree with the GFS on 850 temps. Strong 1032 block to our north and the cold air is displaced by a very weak low? Yeah, not gonna happen. If this solution occured, I'd say 1-2" right along i-20.
Click to expand...

Seriously, a 1032 high that close and my area still can't get any cold air lol
 
Webberweather53 link said:
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
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so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
 
Kaboom
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
 
Suppression in this range is actually odd. Usually the models start showing suppression early (like 210hrs+ out) then lose and system this far out and it's off of our minds. I'm seriously concerned that we actually see suppression when push comes to shove. Still will have to continue to monitor closely.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

The GFS has a significant progressive bias with disturbances in the western hemisphere and is often (esp near the east coast) too far south and east w/ systems in the medium range... It also has problems withholding precipitation too close to the northwestern side of low pressure areas
 
What we're still good 6/7 days away? Thats time enough for improvement.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

Mostly because as an event get closer it starts to move north and west. So suppressed at this range is not a bad thing. We have some room to play with if the NW trend starts.
 
bouncycorn link said:
Suppression in this range is actually odd. Usually the models start showing suppression early (like 210hrs+ out) then lose and system this far out and it's off of our minds. I'm seriously concerned that we actually see suppression when push comes to shove. Still will have to continue to monitor closely.
Click to expand...
suppression is last on my list of concerns at the moment .

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