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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

ForsythSnow link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6099#msg6099 date=1483288027]
I will take the new CMC for 1000000 please.
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What is it showing? Don't have access to the maps yet.
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Freebie site should update soon, but a nice light snow/ice event from basically TX to the Carolina's.  Heck its close to snow down to I-10....even some wintry around my area.  its LIGHT for sure, but very cold...nice difference btwn the euro and GFS
 
SD link said:
We in NC need that Thursday wave to be as strong as possible and more separated from the lead wave in the lakes. Given this wave is still over eastern Russia who knows what we will see

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Great point and what probably another 24 hours or so before it gets over Northern Canada not sure about sampling but I guess it's a while before proper data ingested from that wave

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Looks like the second wave is turning into a CAD region ice storm, but a bit beyond CAD regions. Been showing ice for my area for the past several runs. Plus it looks like 12Z sends the low north.
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6098#msg6098 date=1483287976]
We in NC need that Thursday wave to be as strong as possible and more separated from the lead wave in the lakes. Given this wave is still over eastern Russia who knows what we will see

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Great point and what probably another 24 hours or so before it gets over Northern Canada not sure about sampling but I guess it's a while before proper data ingested from that wave

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These waves coming from near the Arctic Circle and flying into the pattern are so frustrating. Looks like this one gets into the Canadian network around 12z Tuesday and the US 12z Wednesday.

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06z DGEX is similar as the 12z GFS. DGEX is wetter and brings the low closer to the Atlantic coast.

Also, DGEX is colder

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look on the bright side of things... least most of the Alabama folks are in a nice enhanced risk tomorrow late for severe weather... we cant buy any weather here in Tennessee... something to track at least ;D
 
12z cmc
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The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg6106#msg6106 date=1483288355]
OMG this is frustrating
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What?  Why?  It's just the weather.
[/quote] lol, just is sometimes but I'm fine
 
GaWx link said:
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle.
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ya, its nasssssty cold...I do think the CMC is a good split btwn the euro and GFS though.  I know this is weird for me to say this but...in a northern stream dominant pattern the GFS/CMC will do just as good, if not better than the euro....NINA winters (or N to slightly NINA) the GFS And CMC do pretty good...there bias' fit right into those types of patterns.
 
GaWx link said:
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
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It's very consistent with its 0z run

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Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle.
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ya, its nasssssty cold...I do think the CMC is a good split btwn the euro and GFS though.  I know this is weird for me to say this but...in a northern stream dominant pattern the GFS/CMC will do just as good, if not better than the euro....NINA winters (or N to slightly NINA) the GFS And CMC do pretty good...there bias' fit right into those types of patterns.
[/quote] I agree Chris.
 
I really wouldn't be surprised if we see one more major change in the modeling soon (probably not back to the cutter though) but if not I think a blend of the GFS and CMC will probably be close to the actual solution.
 
The CMC is a good model, I've seen it more accurate than the GFS short to mid range. I really do believe that energy will slip right underneath that cold high that the GFS is showing. Right now, I'm using a blend of the CMC and GFS.

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SD link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
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It's very consistent with its 0z run

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True though this run is even colder! It brings single digit lows to TN/NC and parts of northern AL/GA/SC and has 1/8-9 staying below 32 for highs for much of the SE! This would be making the headlines for sure. I obviously am not buying into it but this does show what COULD occur (small chance).
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6120#msg6120 date=1483289148]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg6116#msg6116 date=1483288815]
The 12Z CMC is ridiculously different from the 12Z GFS. It isn't as cold Friday but it then brings in really stupid cold in for the late weekend. But this is just the unreliable Crazy Uncle. For entertainment, it brings a hard freeze well down into FL a week from tomorrow.
Click to expand...
It's very consistent with its 0z run

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[/quote]

True though this run is even colder! It brings single digit lows to TN/NC and parts of northern AL/GA/SC and has 1/8-9 staying below 32 for highs for much of the SE! This would be making the headlines for sure. I obviously am not buying into it but this does show what COULD occur (small chance).
[/quote]
That 2nd wave coming out of Canada has some real deal cold air with it. 

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Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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CMC does well with wedges during CAD events, not sure about it as a model overall.
 
There's one thing about it. There looks to be a few chances of winter weather for the south, starting Thurs through the middle of the next week. I wouldn't mind taking a couple smaller storms over one big one.
 
I'd me more then pleased with an inch of snow or more. Models are all over the place. At least they are showing colder.
 
The CMC is slower, it has the snow breaking out over the central and southern apps at 0z Fri (Thur eve). So it's about 6 hrs. slower than 12z GFS. The 12z GFS has the 2nd wave starting off as an ice event early next week. (Not accurate imo)

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NorthGAWinterWx link said:
Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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What is this a cooking forum? ?
 
I like the CMC in the short/med range, I've seen the CMC become right in a few cases like this one with wintry weather, and became right. As frustrating it is hoping for something in the winter department, like Chris reminded me earlier it's just weather. I'm just happy we are getting some nice beneficial rain. Maybe models will have better handle on things this weekend, with this possible wintry Chance
 
bhs1975 link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg6128#msg6128 date=1483289920]
Let's see what the 12z Euro has when it comes out...if it agrees with the CMC then I'll be using a blend of CMC and Euro with a touch of GFS modeling.

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What is this a cooking forum? ?
[/quote]
Hahah, well the CMC is cooking up our possible snow storm lol ?

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ForsythSnow link said:
6Z GFS Para so close to a great storm. Gives some front end snow to NE GA and parts of NC Sunday before changing to rain. Definitely better than 0Z.
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Good thing is it has the storm
 
ForsythSnow link said:
Monday morning on the CMC. Brrrrr even if it verified warmer. It also keeps everyone below freezing Sunday.
gem_T2m_seus_33.png
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This 12Z CMC map of Monday 1/9 at 7AM has mid 20's between Orlando and Tampa but it has 53 at Melbourne thanks to flow off of the Atlantic. That kind of contrast, where the east coast of central FL is kept in the 50's due to the Atlantic while the western portion of central FL is well down into the 20's would be an extremely rare occurrence to say the least.
 
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