• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=LovesSnowHatesRidges link=topic=80.msg5469#msg5469 date=1483201665]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

The GFS has a significant progressive bias with disturbances in the western hemisphere and is often (esp near the east coast) too far south and east w/ systems in the medium range... It also has problems withholding precipitation too close to the northwestern side of low pressure areas
[/quote]
And that's why we like the suppressed look right now, NW trend will commence at some point.  What a difference a day makes

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 link said:
Kaboom
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
Click to expand...


Yea if we take this look and start a NW trend, a Good many folk on this board would see a Major winter storm!
 
I'd gladly take this & run in Fayetteville, of course I also have to go back up to NC State in Raleigh around this time to start up the 2nd semester so I have some options & maneuverability lol

gfs_asnow_seus_31.png
 
Looks like an icy look just south of me. Snow per that run for my county.
 
I personally, as of now, think that the sheared southern route has just as much of a chance, if not more, happening then a stronger look.  *obviously if the 500mb pattern is what that is showing*  There is too much shredder there.
 
It will become a low as the precip shield moves from west to east. The low pops up at 180 in the Atlantic, it will form way before it gets out to the Atlantic. Nice setup with the highs to the north.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
There is two separate pieces of energy to watch #1 causes the thin stripe of snow around 132hr and doesn't ramp up until it is off the MA. #2 is the piece around 172hr that starts to get going off the SE coast. Interesting times ahead.

#1 (off MA)
8431035d97fbf28aa38a1ed81401a317.jpg


#2 (off SE coast)
e5e6916a64cfe21a53b8d8976c7077d7.jpg


Sent from my SM-S820L using Tapatalk
 
Our usual problem is that systems look like they're gonna be monsters but then trend north in the last days (like 84 hours out) and just end up being rain. That's usually our problem with huge monster storms at this range. So this is, in fact, a pretty good place to be
 
A suppressed look is no big deal right now, but if the pattern really is going to change and there's going to be enough blocking we do want to see a southern slider with a low pressure.

One change on these models is more blocking is available...
 
Good afternoon hoping to get some snow in the North Carolina foothills.. this model watching will drive ya crazy lol
 
metwannabe link said:
aaf3983b915c8f600cc172cfa922ce84.jpg


44e746f0e5fe8bc89b874ccf5f06a343.jpg


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

yuck...don't like ice but if I have that read right that's not as bad as it could be. It's not good but it's not nightmarish.
 
I hope nobody is looking at totals, it's way to early to determine amounts tbh.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
bouncycorn link said:
Storm, is your biggest concern an over adjustment to the n, giving many in the deep south only rain?
Click to expand...
That's one, but to me that's gonna depend on how strong the vort is  . I don't think there is alot of room for this to jump way nw , but some movement is likely . Obviously we don't want a system that's gonna be an over amplifier  . The 00z gfs kept the vort intact nicely, but the 06z and now the 12z really stretch it out . I'm ok with a weaker vort this far out as we have seen them modeled stronger the closer we get. We also still have to have pause and look for stream interaction which could throw a monkey at us.

But my biggest issue right now is the cold press. we see over and over again cold presses being modeled to strong . If the 50/50 is further north and east then what's being modeled we could see the temps back off some which would also make a huge difference for many and also allow for a more NW track  .

seeing the ukmet with its cold press is encouraging though

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top