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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

But JB said in his Saturday Summary that a low should come up out of the gulf around the upcoming weekend. So I really don't understand all the worry around here (sarcasm).


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metwannabe link said:
Oh well only good from the 0z suites is a slight uptick in the eps, with a handful of members with a decent hit.  So at least the pattern still has some potential albeit small... I'm leaning towards the shredder doing the dirty work and spoiling it for anyone. 

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I'm all in on the Thursday wave. But even that looks like crap now. Ah Nina winter in the south. Remember when we were worried about not enough northern stream? Those were the days

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Well, hell...remember when it wasn't so hard to go snow around here??  oh wait...never mind...its the south...always difficult..  :snowflake: :snowflake: :snowflake: :eyeroll:
 
Deltadog03 link said:
Well, hell...remember when it wasn't so hard to go snow around here??  oh wait...never mind...its the south...always difficult..  :snowflake: :snowflake: :snowflake: :eyeroll:
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LOL


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Gfs very consistent through 12z Tuesday versys the previous 24 hrs of runs.  It's after this time that all hell breaks loose

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SD link said:
Gfs very consistent through 12z Tuesday versys the previous 24 hrs of runs.  It's after this time that all hell breaks loose

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Yup, I don't see no major changes from the 12z through that period.

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This run is going to bring back the Thursday wave for NC after the 6z dropped it.  Not sure if it's as north and warm as the euro

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SD link said:
This run is going to bring back the Thursday wave for NC after the 6z dropped it.  Not sure if it's as north and warm as the euro

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Looks a lot like the 0z with that wave so far, maybe a tick sw so far....definitely better than the 06z

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I know their are probably more North Carolina folks on here than anybody, but I do think someone in the mid-south will see some winter weather late next week into the weekend.  :snowflake:
 
Energy is really off the pac nw coast now.  So we can't really count on that (from the GFS) 
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6068#msg6068 date=1483285922]
This run is going to bring back the Thursday wave for NC after the 6z dropped it.  Not sure if it's as north and warm as the euro

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Looks a lot like the 0z with that wave so far, maybe a tick sw so far....definitely better than the 06z

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[/quote]
90-108 should be interesting. 

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More robust with that Thursday wave, just need it to dig more...

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Not liking where this is heading....1 thing to note, in a NORTHERN stream dominate pattern, like we have this winter (so far) I will say that the GFS usually shines since things are progressive and northern stream happy.  GFS looooooooves those conditions.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg6069#msg6069 date=1483286159]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6068#msg6068 date=1483285922]
This run is going to bring back the Thursday wave for NC after the 6z dropped it.  Not sure if it's as north and warm as the euro

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Looks a lot like the 0z with that wave so far, maybe a tick sw so far....definitely better than the 06z

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[/quote]
90-108 should be interesting. 

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prob going to get yall a nice little swath of snow there.  its trying to dig, but waaaaay too late for all of us except yall prob....
 
Pretty crazy looking pattern with that ul hanging back and interacting with the low in a the pacific.
 
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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That high is little further SW at 06z Thur than 06z GFS. Little bit of some snow breaking out at 12z Thur

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SD link said:
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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yes sir!  swing and a miss for everyone except the upstate and NC.  Might be a nice little event your way. 
 
SD link said:
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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Maybe it will over perform. That seems to be the trend lately.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6077#msg6077 date=1483286521]
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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yes sir!  swing and a miss for everyone except the upstate and NC.  Might be a nice little event your way.
[/quote]
Gfs is close to getting some Atlantic moisture involved. 

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For most of the SE, the 12Z GFS is looking to be really cold late week into the weekend but this kind of setup (northern Rockies high diving down into TX) usually results in no widespread SE winter storm to follow. I'd much rather there be a big high going from ND/MN ESEward into the Midwest to have a better shot.
 
SD link said:
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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Yep so close again, popping lp off coast too far....still light event

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The back and forth dance with the models will probably continue until the middle of next week. Just good seeing a threat there, and knowing we still have an opportunity for a storm. Going to be a while before we know what is going to happen. A lot of times the back and forth dance ends up being a good storm, and sometimes it ends up being nothing.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6079#msg6079 date=1483286650]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6077#msg6077 date=1483286521]
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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yes sir!  swing and a miss for everyone except the upstate and NC.  Might be a nice little event your way.
[/quote]
Gfs is close to getting some Atlantic moisture involved. 

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Very true...I honestly think at this point....yall have the best shot at anything...the northern stream is just going to hammer the cold....
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6077#msg6077 date=1483286521]
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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Yep so close again, popping lp off coast too far....still light event

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[/quote]
The next wave over Manitoba might be interesting too. Typical Nina look here hoping for the last second coastal. I like the ridge building in the west.  I hate it for the rest of the region but what can you do

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Definitely alot of northern stream energy flying around. We got a beefy baroclinic zone too with the hot tub Atlantic.
 
The low is closer to the Atlantic coast at 06z Fri than the 06z GFS. The 06z GFS had the low poping up at 108 further south and east. The low has to pop up before getting out to the Atlantic.

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Man if we had a clean western ridge this pattern would be fooking epic

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SD link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg6083#msg6083 date=1483286755]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg6077#msg6077 date=1483286521]
Moisture plume developing nicely.  Jet max off the coast energy coming in should be a light precip event across NC

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Click to expand...
Yep so close again, popping lp off coast too far....still light event

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[/quote]
The next wave over Manitoba might be interesting too. Typical Nina look here hoping for the last second coastal. I like the ridge building in the west.  I hate it for the rest of the region but what can you do

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Nothing you can do about that, I'd love a board wide event....  this first wave looks like a good 1-2" event for most of NC

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So we have the slower and warmer and much wetter European, versus the much colder more Progressive less precipitation GFS. So that we just split the difference? LOL
 
The models keep changing each run, so I don't thing everything is lost yet. For all we know the storm could come back on Tuesday, or later today, or something could happen that could alter the models like yesterday.
 
The chances for a widespread significant SE wintry event like what that GFS run from yesterday showed are continuing to inch down based on the 12Z GFS though there's still time for the threat to return on the models. This looks to be like the rather typical dry, cold SE setup with most of any moisture chasing away the cold rather than interacting with it. But let's see what the rest of the run shows. I at least like the path of the 2nd Arctic high from the northern Plains to the Midwest. That is better than the first one's path for major SE wintry chances. Let's see how this evolves.
 
The upstate looks to get a possible 1-2" event from that first wave Thursday. That's being fairly consistent and we're within 4 days.
 
We in NC need that Thursday wave to be as strong as possible and more separated from the lead wave in the lakes. Given this wave is still over eastern Russia who knows what we will see

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12z CMC is better than 12z GFS IMO. Has precip breaking out over the upper plains at 12z Thur moving east. What a different completely run of the 12z GFS.

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