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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

6z GEFS mean went back up, after dropping at 0z.  It's now similar to yesterdays 12z and 18z.
snod.conus.png
 
Snowfan link said:
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=80.msg6014#msg6014 date=1483271635]
Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs:
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Is that from Today or Yesterday?
[/quote]

It's the latest run: 6z 1/1/2017  You can see the timestamp in the top right corner of the map.
 
I'll take yesterday's 12z para setup

00z eps was much improved

Need to start seeing things improve on today's run.

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packfan98 link said:
[quote author=Snowfan link=topic=80.msg6017#msg6017 date=1483276804]
[quote author=packfan98 link=topic=80.msg6014#msg6014 date=1483271635]
Here's what we don't want from the 6z gfs:
Click to expand...
Is that from Today or Yesterday?
[/quote]

It's the latest run: 6z 1/1/2017  You can see the timestamp in the top right corner of the map.
[/quote]
Oh good. An ice storm.
 
Spanarkle08 link said:
Our weather guys have taken all precip out of forecast for the end of the week here in West TN. What's your thinking?
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Good call because models have been trending drier for our area
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=80.msg6022#msg6022 date=1483277227]
Does anyone have the GEFS individual members?



'
Click to expand...
not impressed
00b23d5216f457c5c40da36e9fa83f46.jpg


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[/quote]
This puppy might be slipping away.


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The GEFS doesn't look too bad, I seriously doubt the cold is gonna be that strong to completely squash the system. Today's runs should begin to see the end of complete model mayhem and some serious agreement should be starting. Nobody should be giving up at this point.
 
SimeonNC link said:
The GEFS doesn't look too bad, I seriously doubt the cold is gonna be that strong to completely squash the system. Today's runs should begin to see the end of complete model mayhem and some serious agreement should be starting. Nobody should be giving up at this point.
Click to expand...

I think we could still see some pretty significant fluctuations in the models through Tuesday.  Complicated setup with multiple pieces of energy.  They often switch which one gets more emphasis.  Possible phasing is really complicated.  The depth of the cold air push is key.  I doubt we have seen the final solution yet.
 
I don't like the 06z GFS. The energy is held back, it waits for that high to get on the east coast. Then the energy gets kicked out from the out west. This is not the setup we want. There would be some winter weather at the onset than the warmer air would take over with that setup. That high would be a big role to see what pans out.

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so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Storm5 link said:
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Click to expand...

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
 
Storm5 link said:
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Click to expand...
Yeah man, I don't jump the cliff, specially when the models are all over the place. Jumping the cliff is like leaving the party at 9 lol. I know members have jumped the cliff. Their going to wish they didn't, if models show something entirely different. 

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SimeonNC link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6032#msg6032 date=1483279231]
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

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Click to expand...

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
[/quote]
I agree there is a little time left. but not doubt this has trended the wrong way over the last few days. I don't see this going back to the nice overrunning idea that was showing last week which would have put more people in play

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Storm5 link said:
who  jump ?

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I'm saying that, I'm sure some members have jumped, even the ones that don't post anything.

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12z will be coming out soon. We're getting into that 3-5 day window. We should start to see better runs today.

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=80.msg6033#msg6033 date=1483279763]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg6032#msg6032 date=1483279231]
so we have been at this for 3 days now with wild model swings yet those swings are not showing anything that's favorable for a region wide event like they were showing last week.

now we have a possible light event Thrus/Fri for tenn into NC . Then you have another camp that is slower and places the trough a tick further west that tries to bring precip into western areas with a slitely better SW orientation of the trough but floods the Carolinas with warmer air. Regardless of the outcome, IF IF IF there is any type of wintry weather many of us will get screwed. This has trended far away from a setup that could impact many on the board.

while chances are not zero, they remain fairly small at the moment

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The models are poorly handling this wave, we should accept that anything is possible at this point and it won't be until tomorrow or Tuesday that we can get a good handle on this.
[/quote]
I agree there is a little time left. but not doubt this has trended the wrong way over the last few days. I don't see this going back to the nice overrunning idea that was showing last week which would have put more people in play

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[/quote]
I agree w/you. While things are still going back and forth the idea of a widespread overrunning event MAY be slipping away. Only time will tell and no I haven't jumped.


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I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.
 
Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.
 
DadOfJax link said:
Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.
Click to expand...
we are getting plenty of rain currently . no one wants rain as we head towards prime winter season lol

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I sense folks giving up, still don't think the final solution is set in stone. :snowflake:
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.
Click to expand...

+1. This sums up the current situation well imo based on the model trends. You can't deny the model trends. This isn't saying it can't turn out differently and suddenly revert back to a more widespread significant SE wintry event threat since it would still be about a week away, but this has now become an "underdog" possibility and the line is going more and more against it. The chances will continue down if each run continues showing what Chris describes here.

Nevertheless, I maintain that the main CAD areas, especially in GA, are still under a higher than average threat for a major ZR/IP at some point this winter due to the current ENSO and since a large portion of prime time ZR season remains. I wouldn't knock this chance down to average or lower until well into January if nothing were to occur by then and nothing were to then be showing up in the modeling.
 
I hope this trends back south to put Bama and West GA in the game. I know that we still have time, but it's looking like the normal folks who always get snow will be the ones to get it again this time if anyone. I really want to see snow.
 
well we lost the para. yesterday's para runs were encouraging.  then 00z happened and the para went towards the gfs and ukmet with squash city

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=DadOfJax link=topic=80.msg6046#msg6046 date=1483283109]
Hopefully we wont see the cold push and we can get a much needed rain event across AL assuming the winter wx solutions are pretty much gone at this point.
Click to expand...
we are getting plenty of rain currently . no one wants rain as we head towards prime winter season lol

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[/quote]

I have playfully said in the past that plain rain is treated as evil on weather forums by many during DJF even though plain rain dominates precip because that's what SE precip does. I noticed that this winter that plain rain might be treated differently as of early December due to drought relief but that sure changed quickly soon after the good early December rains.
 
Deltadog03 link said:
I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.
Click to expand...
good news is we will know within the first 10 minutes of the gfs run how H5 is shaping up....

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It's going to be tough when we warm up week 2 of the month

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg6044#msg6044 date=1483282267]
I think we have some clues of what may happen here, but not set in stone for sure. I do think this is either a light band of snow for TN and NC with a massive push of cold (ie suppressed or non existant) or this could be cold chasing moisture and for most it's rain. Still plenty of time for sure, but a big event is (widespread for the SE) might be quickly fading away.
Click to expand...
good news is we will know within the first 10 minutes of the gfs run how H5 is shaping up....

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[/quote]

Agreed...Its funny, to me, when we get to the point of a potential threat and instead of waiting for like hr 140+ to see whats up and within the first 48-72 hours we can have a good idea...lol
 
SD link said:
It's going to be tough when we warm up week 2 of the month

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Click to expand...

Ya, we are going to see some pushback for sure, but until then looks very cold at times.
 
Oh well only good from the 0z suites is a slight uptick in the eps, with a handful of members with a decent hit.  So at least the pattern still has some potential albeit small... I'm leaning towards the shredder doing the dirty work and spoiling it for anyone. 

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