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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5960#msg5960 date=1483248206]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg5957#msg5957 date=1483248091]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

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They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

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[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

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[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.

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[/quote]
Right now Thursday has my interest more than the potential 2nd "event", especially for us.  Seeing that coastal on most of the members shows some promise....  although it almost reminds me of the big storm that never was for NC, the one that burned all tv Mets, I don't remember date but it's why Fishel is so conservative to this day.

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[/quote]
December 2000
 
snowcrazy link said:
I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.
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That's a really good question..... It could be any one of the global models. However, what I look at, is a super-blend of the trends in the European and GFS ensemble mean. If this storm is going to happen, you will notice an upward trend in the means. Also, at some point the Euro will show a bomb off the coast. It has a bias of doing that. Watch the western ridge, taller is better. Energy can "dig" easier to the lower latitudes and phasing is more likely. Lastly, note the trends in the 50/50 low position. That will provide the needed confluence and keep the storm from cutting. Cold air should not be an issue this time. Hope that helps
 
December 2000
[/quote]
Actually, I see more of Jan 2003 type storm with this one..... High ratios and a lee trough. Will likely enhance the snow totals in the western piedmont of NC.
 
We're still several days out and the cold air looks to be in place, and the pattern overall looks to be favourable for a storm next week. The models are having a really hard time figuring out this pattern and how things will play out.
 
Snowfan link said:
Better do my special snow dance again
aoHFoG.gif
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Omg, is this Monsieur Tucker of snow dance fame? If so, your services are badly needed!
 
NCSNOW link said:
If Trump would apoint me secretary of state, the first thing I'd do is fly to Europe and make some knucklehead run the euro op before midnight. The amount of sleep I loose in the winter.ugh
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+1. Thank goodness DST is not year round! I've considered moving to CO just to get Doc two hours earlier. It was the best part of my vacation there! I didn't want to leave and dreaded coming home after being spoiled.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
December 2000
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Actually, I see more of Jan 2003 type storm with this one..... High ratios and a lee trough. Will likely enhance the snow totals in the western piedmont of NC.
[/quote]
Agree. He was talking about a massive storm forecasted by all tv mets and nws for 12 inches on the eve before and next day we got zilch, milky skies where ns and ss missed phase. Big egg in face. Never forget.

I'm always nervous with snows 100 percent ns driven on this side of apps. But they can happen. Jan 2003 was one and another was late Dec, early Jan back in 93 or 94 I beleive.
 
snowcrazy link said:
I have a few questions to ask for anyone that is more model savvy than me.At 6-7 days out what model do you think is the best? This is the time the GFS often loses a storm for a few days. If things start trending back good what model should pick up on it first, I'm just asking based on the models history. Just wanting to find out the overall tendencies of the models at all ranges.
Click to expand...
It depends on the situation. I like to look at the most widely used models to see the the differences and similarities between models. Sometimes you have to use a blend of models. The NWS does that, they use a blend of models that have similarities. That's why I mentioned that, what ever models agree with the most, that is what is the most probable outcome.

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Cold air should not be an issue this time. Hope that helps
[/quote]

Um I feel like the cold air is our issue this time...it's too overwhelming. Can't tell you how many times storms skunk out when its so freaking dry in the low 20s or teens all we get is overcast skies across the mountains/foothills. Our big dogs don't happen this way...it's usually warmer...
 
Deltadog03 link said:
Dr NO looks like it's not going to suppress city tonight.
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And warmer!! Good times
 
Dry snow...high ratios.

This will not be the shoveling snow it will be like sand on the beach. No shoveling for dry weight...poor snow building/sledding...not much you can do with it other than look at it before it evaporates with temps below freezing or gets blown away by the winds over the weekend.
 
Storm5 link said:
light snow in Dallas on Saturday

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2nd wave FTW!?
 
Storm5 link said:
14162a852aded33f06c3c36641fe8ba0.jpg


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This has a look of a past GFS run...models indeed lost consistency than what we've seen in the past. We should start seeing better consistency at this range.

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Brent link said:
What a weird run lol the 500 mb setup is completely different ::)
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Good Lord.... at this rate, it will be verification time and we still will not have any idea of what to expect. On a positive note....taking a super-blend of the 0z GFS and EURO will be just what we want. Let's see what the ensembles have to say.
 
Crappy New Years , from Euro! :(
 
metwannabe link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5960#msg5960 date=1483248206]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg5957#msg5957 date=1483248091]
[quote author=SD link=topic=80.msg5952#msg5952 date=1483247730]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5950#msg5950 date=1483247346]
Lots of gefs members bring light snow across the region on Thursday

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
They are going to be all over the place. Just looking through them right quick there will be some high totals for NC

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
When the ensembles aren't helping smooth out the noise it's a very volatile pattern, forecasters nightmare this week

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Yep. There is good agreement for some snow Thursday but that's about it. They are all over the place with totals and low strength. Then after that it's just a mess.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
Right now Thursday has my interest more than the potential 2nd "event", especially for us.  Seeing that coastal on most of the members shows some promise....  although it almost reminds me of the big storm that never was for NC, the one that burned all tv Mets, I don't remember date but it's why Fishel is so conservative to this day.

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[/quote] yes I'm with ya there about Thursday/Friday chance. GFS op was showing that piece of energy moving through, prob the same some the gefs was showing.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6000#msg6000 date=1483252723]
Crappy New Years , from Euro! :(
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You say its a crappy run and storm says its a good run. What gives ?
[/quote]

Some have patience and some don't.
 
Storm5 link said:
that was a much better run

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We have to remember the Euro's bias of over-amping systems. I believe this run is pushing heights up too much. It should verify colder. That's just my opinion.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg6000#msg6000 date=1483252723]
Crappy New Years , from Euro! :(
Click to expand...
You say its a crappy run and storm says its a good run. What gives ?
[/quote]
End result is crappy, but I'm assuming he's talking upper air pattern stuff!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
Crappy New Years , from Euro! :(
Click to expand...
idk man lol, I thought it was a much improved run. It wouldn't take much to get frozen out of that
 
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