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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg5542#msg5542 date=1483207124]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg5535#msg5535 date=1483206716]
Screenshot_from_2016_12_31_12_51_06.png


Here's individual members
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I'm pretty sure these are counting ZR/IP as SN based on the idea that the first one (control) is the operational and most of that in SC/GA is ZR.
[/quote]
agree they clearly are

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[/quote]
E1 is a Miller B with CAD...those high totals are ice to snow.

E8 on the other hand is mostly all snow thanks to an almost perfect old fashioned Miller A track. If you wanna see what a Major Winter Storm evolution is just run thru E8.

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Deltadog03 link said:
Bets on the euro?  lol  coming in now....
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Just because it wouldn't surprise me.....a crush job for central AL through north Georgia....based on nothing but a wishcast!
 
With the way everything is progressing, I would not be at all surprised if one of these OPs goes woof woof in the next 24-48 hrs. Doesn't mean I think that's the final solution tho lol.

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It's either going to be a southern slider or a good Miller A...remember the NAO trends negative around the event time period...Im leaning more on the Miller A.

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tellicowx link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg5548#msg5548 date=1483207340]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=80.msg5542#msg5542 date=1483207124]
[quote author=bouncycorn link=topic=80.msg5535#msg5535 date=1483206716]
Screenshot_from_2016_12_31_12_51_06.png


Here's individual members
Click to expand...

I'm pretty sure these are counting ZR/IP as SN based on the idea that the first one (control) is the operational and most of that in SC/GA is ZR.
[/quote]
agree they clearly are

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]
E1 is a Miller B with CAD...those high totals are ice to snow.

E8 on the other hand is mostly all snow thanks to an almost perfect old fashioned Miller A track. If you wanna see what a Major Winter Storm evolution is just run thru E8.

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[/quote]

Do you know what's happening on E13, 16, and 19?
 
50/50 is weaker and cold push isn't quite as strong...Don't think this is gonna be sppressed

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850s look okay at 120. Not gonna be amazing run but won't be terrible
 
MUCH more moisture in the west Gulf compared to the suppressed 0Z run. Good trend for now.
 
metwannabe link said:
Shawn's not gonna like the icy look for SC

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It's not that I absolutely hate ice or anything but Tony has it stuck in my head that I never want to see the true ZR monster.  The bigger ice events around here, I do not remember much of due to my age.  I remember sitting in a living room watching a portable black & white TV waiting for power and barely being able to make food though.

I'd be down for say, 0.25 of ice max and the rest sleet or snow like what happened last time the ZR monster knocked on my door.
 
modelwatcher link said:
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg5565#msg5565 date=1483209056]
Suppression city on this run!
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Yep, :(
[/quote] why are you sad ? I thought suppression is what we want at this point in the game
 
At least with a cutter we get rain and MAYBE some flurries on the backside. I hope this suppression trend doesn't continue.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=modelwatcher link=topic=80.msg5568#msg5568 date=1483209210]
[quote author=Deltadog03 link=topic=80.msg5565#msg5565 date=1483209056]
Suppression city on this run!
Click to expand...

Yep, :(
[/quote] why are you sad ? I thought suppression is what we want at this point in the game
[/quote]

As we are getting closer in time I would like to see the models start trending north, not agreeing with each other (for the most part). Still a couple of days before the general idea locks in.
 
You all are pretty happy with suppression, but i've seen suppression ruin fantasy storms several times.. even last year.
 
They wouldn't start trending north until at least Monday or Tuesday. That's how it usually goes.
 
But honestly, if we get a middle route between the CMC 12z and ECMWF, we'll have a major miller A system.
 
Seems like after last night's 00z runs things have now gone downhill. I hope the models start trending in our favor again shortly
 
Euro strings the energy like the GFS OP...first piece was a little closer than GFS when it pops a low of the MA, close to being a big hit for Eastern NC...Second wave that makes it on GFS, gets shredded on the EURO

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I could see the suppression not being an issue when push comes to shove... but the real problem here is the energy being strung out. If the energy weren't strung out, we'd have an unsuppressed system moving right under the high pressure.
 
Are y'all serious? Y'all realize that storms trend north as we get closer. Y'all really want the CMC to come true and get a 46'degree rain? Cmon
 
Just like with Matthew, if its going to happen, the positive trends will happen on Sunday/Monday.

Suppression really is NBD with me for now but these trends are going to take the western part of the south out of the game...
 
ECMWF loves to hold energy back...but GFS loves to be progressive. Right now, our problem is too much energy being held back/strung out and both models are showing it.
 
This storm has been a strong signal for days. A couple of strung out model runs are unlikely to be the final outcome.


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Maybe I'm just superstitious, but I like where we are with the GFS/EURO/UK right now. Realistically, we'll possibly be somewhere between those three models and the Canadian which I think would satisfy mostly everyone on this board.
 
ZR storms bring back memories. While growing up I thought it was normal to have a ice storm once a year. Always happened. Usually a week without electricity. The ice storms do not happen like they use to. I think trimming the trees near power lines help with outages.  I have been through some zn monsters (one was 4 inches). I remember two of the zn storms specifically which the transformers were blowing. Going to sleep while it sounded like bombs blowing up and hearing trees/limbs falling. The longest I remember going without electricity was 2 1/2 weeks. I still remember how strange it felt when the electricity and the heat came back.
 
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Not really any consistency with the models now, and usually isn't at this range. Main thing is there is a strong signal for a storm next weekend, and the potential is still there. Going to be until at least the middle of next week until they start showing more consistentcy.
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finally a voice of reason. Thank you brick and I agree
 
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