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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Snowfall n of i-20 @ 171. Still need a stronger s/w... but this run is much better than 06z.
 
Not sure I agree with the GFS on 850 temps. Strong 1032 block to our north and the cold air is displaced by a very weak low? Yeah, not gonna happen. If this solution occured, I'd say 1-2" right along i-20.
 
good place to be this far out no doubt. Hopefully that energy can consolidate and survive the journey . cause this run isn't what we want

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Not gonna complain one bit about this run.... game not over

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bouncycorn link said:
Not sure I agree with the GFS on 850 temps. Strong 1032 block to our north and the cold air is displaced by a very weak low? Yeah, not gonna happen. If this solution occured, I'd say 1-2" right along i-20.
Click to expand...

Seriously, a 1032 high that close and my area still can't get any cold air lol
 
Webberweather53 link said:
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
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so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
 
Kaboom
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
 
Suppression in this range is actually odd. Usually the models start showing suppression early (like 210hrs+ out) then lose and system this far out and it's off of our minds. I'm seriously concerned that we actually see suppression when push comes to shove. Still will have to continue to monitor closely.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

The GFS has a significant progressive bias with disturbances in the western hemisphere and is often (esp near the east coast) too far south and east w/ systems in the medium range... It also has problems withholding precipitation too close to the northwestern side of low pressure areas
 
What we're still good 6/7 days away? Thats time enough for improvement.
 
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

Mostly because as an event get closer it starts to move north and west. So suppressed at this range is not a bad thing. We have some room to play with if the NW trend starts.
 
bouncycorn link said:
Suppression in this range is actually odd. Usually the models start showing suppression early (like 210hrs+ out) then lose and system this far out and it's off of our minds. I'm seriously concerned that we actually see suppression when push comes to shove. Still will have to continue to monitor closely.
Click to expand...
suppression is last on my list of concerns at the moment .

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Webberweather53 link said:
[quote author=LovesSnowHatesRidges link=topic=80.msg5469#msg5469 date=1483201665]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Click to expand...


so i'm new to the game but why is a cold/suppressed look good this far out?
[/quote]

The GFS has a significant progressive bias with disturbances in the western hemisphere and is often (esp near the east coast) too far south and east w/ systems in the medium range... It also has problems withholding precipitation too close to the northwestern side of low pressure areas
[/quote]
And that's why we like the suppressed look right now, NW trend will commence at some point.  What a difference a day makes

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I'd gladly take this & run in Fayetteville, of course I also have to go back up to NC State in Raleigh around this time to start up the 2nd semester so I have some options & maneuverability lol

gfs_asnow_seus_31.png
 
Looks like an icy look just south of me. Snow per that run for my county.
 
I personally, as of now, think that the sheared southern route has just as much of a chance, if not more, happening then a stronger look.  *obviously if the 500mb pattern is what that is showing*  There is too much shredder there.
 
It will become a low as the precip shield moves from west to east. The low pops up at 180 in the Atlantic, it will form way before it gets out to the Atlantic. Nice setup with the highs to the north.

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There is two separate pieces of energy to watch #1 causes the thin stripe of snow around 132hr and doesn't ramp up until it is off the MA. #2 is the piece around 172hr that starts to get going off the SE coast. Interesting times ahead.

#1 (off MA)
8431035d97fbf28aa38a1ed81401a317.jpg


#2 (off SE coast)
e5e6916a64cfe21a53b8d8976c7077d7.jpg


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Our usual problem is that systems look like they're gonna be monsters but then trend north in the last days (like 84 hours out) and just end up being rain. That's usually our problem with huge monster storms at this range. So this is, in fact, a pretty good place to be
 
A suppressed look is no big deal right now, but if the pattern really is going to change and there's going to be enough blocking we do want to see a southern slider with a low pressure.

One change on these models is more blocking is available...
 
Storm, is your biggest concern an over adjustment to the n, giving many in the deep south only rain?
 
Good afternoon hoping to get some snow in the North Carolina foothills.. this model watching will drive ya crazy lol
 
metwannabe link said:
aaf3983b915c8f600cc172cfa922ce84.jpg


44e746f0e5fe8bc89b874ccf5f06a343.jpg


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Click to expand...
Ouch for Shawn!
 
metwannabe link said:
aaf3983b915c8f600cc172cfa922ce84.jpg


44e746f0e5fe8bc89b874ccf5f06a343.jpg


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Click to expand...

yuck...don't like ice but if I have that read right that's not as bad as it could be. It's not good but it's not nightmarish.
 
I hope nobody is looking at totals, it's way to early to determine amounts tbh.

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bouncycorn link said:
Storm, is your biggest concern an over adjustment to the n, giving many in the deep south only rain?
Click to expand...
That's one, but to me that's gonna depend on how strong the vort is  . I don't think there is alot of room for this to jump way nw , but some movement is likely . Obviously we don't want a system that's gonna be an over amplifier  . The 00z gfs kept the vort intact nicely, but the 06z and now the 12z really stretch it out . I'm ok with a weaker vort this far out as we have seen them modeled stronger the closer we get. We also still have to have pause and look for stream interaction which could throw a monkey at us.

But my biggest issue right now is the cold press. we see over and over again cold presses being modeled to strong . If the 50/50 is further north and east then what's being modeled we could see the temps back off some which would also make a huge difference for many and also allow for a more NW track  .

seeing the ukmet with its cold press is encouraging though

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Canadian looks TERRIBLE! Brings the system north through Central Georgia and cuts it.
 
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