Snowfall n of i-20 @ 171. Still need a stronger s/w... but this run is much better than 06z.
bouncycorn link said:Not sure I agree with the GFS on 850 temps. Strong 1032 block to our north and the cold air is displaced by a very weak low? Yeah, not gonna happen. If this solution occured, I'd say 1-2" right along i-20.
Webberweather53 link said:We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
LovesSnowHatesRidges link said:[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
suppression is last on my list of concerns at the moment .bouncycorn link said:Suppression in this range is actually odd. Usually the models start showing suppression early (like 210hrs+ out) then lose and system this far out and it's off of our minds. I'm seriously concerned that we actually see suppression when push comes to shove. Still will have to continue to monitor closely.
Webberweather53 link said:[quote author=LovesSnowHatesRidges link=topic=80.msg5469#msg5469 date=1483201665]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=80.msg5453#msg5453 date=1483201293]
We definitely want the cold/suppressed look this far in advance esp on the GFS...
Webberweather53 link said:Kaboom
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Ouch for Shawn!metwannabe link said:![]()
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metwannabe link said:![]()
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That's one, but to me that's gonna depend on how strong the vort is . I don't think there is alot of room for this to jump way nw , but some movement is likely . Obviously we don't want a system that's gonna be an over amplifier . The 00z gfs kept the vort intact nicely, but the 06z and now the 12z really stretch it out . I'm ok with a weaker vort this far out as we have seen them modeled stronger the closer we get. We also still have to have pause and look for stream interaction which could throw a monkey at us.bouncycorn link said:Storm, is your biggest concern an over adjustment to the n, giving many in the deep south only rain?