sigwx
Member
man, take a break....get away from it for a while..seriously.Stormlover link said:
[/quote]
Its just 2 model runs today
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[/quote]
Its just 2 model runs today
Stormlover
Member
big time ice storm with some snow too in my area....most of this is ice
Stormlover
Member
This is the 18Z now...but the 0Z tonight...expect some good stuffaccu35 link said:
ATLwxfan
Member
Seems like once the snow trends north, it doesn't trend back.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Good luck with trying to get the first disturbance to trend back south, lol, confidence is starting to increase that it'll end up in the OH valley and lower great Lakes as usual for a NINA, and of course as I mentioned earlier wrt the northern tier snow cover extent, the track of that system now makes more sense, and could potentially help open the door for us down the road if things line up... Even those along the mid-Atlantic I-95 corridor should be weary to hang your hat on the current GEFS/EPS solutions wrt seeing wintry precipitation, they're still in the process of adjusting from the wave taking its sweet time to come out of the west. I think for now only the south-central plains, OH Valley, lower lakes, interior northeast & maybe north-central coastal New England are in relatively decent shape to receive wintry weather from the first system. Although the slowing of the overall trough allots more time for the arctic front to make headway southeastward, the PV lobe over southeastern Canada that was shearing the system apart and suppressing it southward east of the Rockies, now has time to get out of the way, hence the first system now has time to amplify, thus the massive shift northward. There's definitely at least an outside chance of a secondary wave riding along the front, but we need to give this another few days before we start getting excited about a storm... This secondary disturbance still may not form and could consolidate with the first initial piece and lead to a massive storm that goes into the lower lakes, providing us with perhaps maybe some very light, parting wintry wx as the cold air would be chasing whatever moisture remains along the front as the EPS currently shows. Although this isn't the favored solution atm, it's a very legitimate one...
Snowman63
Member
12Z GFS Para...
The snowfall out west is setting up fine at 132 on 18z GFS. One of the issues is that high over west central IL slips off to the east too fast. This causes some CAD at 138 and 144. At 150, the high pushes off north of Bermuda, warming us up here with southernaly winds. If that high at 132 hangs around there for a bit and then moves along as the low comes along, we would have more snow and some CAD going on. The first low is just way too far north for my liking. The 2nd low at 180 is the right location for the 1st low. The reason why the 2nd low is further south and east is because it's colder to the north and west. I still see the potential of a winter storm setting up IMO.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's a huge northwestward shift on the parallel, and it's likely not done correcting towards the OHV/lower lakes... Keep in mind @ 6z it had this first system staying well offshore the SE US with virtually no little precip making it poleward of the I-20 corridor
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah I have no idea why someone said they wanted a low pressure with this pattern. There simply isn't enough blocking for a low pressure to be wanted with this.
Again your best luck is probably something that isn't that likely, for the first wave to be weakened so the second wave can come in somewhat cleanly. If there's actually cold in place with the second wave, then that's your best luck.
Edit: Nevermind I'm dumb, I have it reversed.
Again your best luck is probably something that isn't that likely, for the first wave to be weakened so the second wave can come in somewhat cleanly. If there's actually cold in place with the second wave, then that's your best luck.
Edit: Nevermind I'm dumb, I have it reversed.
Storm5
Member
agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .Webberweather53 link said:
And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.
Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.
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SimeonNC
Member
I don't really see this trending any better for us, once storms do this it's very unlikely even at this range that it'll trend back in favor for us. I'll take the rain, congrats to the MA and Ohio Valley for now. If things end up trending better then it'll be a miracle.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .Storm5 link said:
And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.
Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.
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[/quote]
Yep, I'm in the exact same boat atm, not impressed with the idea of a secondary wave yet but we have a better chance with that than scoring on the first wave, which really isn't saying much to begin with lol
ATLwxfan
Member
agree, I'm not sure why people think the first wave is going to come back south .Storm5 link said:
And color me not impressed with the second wave idea. the ensembles don't support that idea. I'd favor one consolidated piece of energy coming out vs pieces at different times.
Still time no doubt ,but I'm not impressed nor excited at the moment.
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[/quote]
Ok...back to the January thread. Only because it's too soon for the February thread.
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VegasEagle
Member
How much ice for N. Alabama?Stormlover link said:big time ice storm with some snow too in my area....most of this is ice
Storm5
Member
18z gefs does have some members showing a second wave
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Stormlover
Member
How much ice for N. Alabama?vegaseagle link said:[quote author=Stormlover link=topic=80.msg5068#msg5068 date=1483137674]
big time ice storm with some snow too in my area....most of this is ice
[/quote]The pivotal ice map is posted above, so some significant ice is possible
by the way, this for me from Huntsville:
Thursday night: Rain and snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
FridayA 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
I remember that Matthew wasn't supposed to hit the east coast at all, and then it almost all of a sudden trended to affecting the east coast. If something like that is going to happen, the trends will begin on Sunday and next Monday.
accu35
Member
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- Jan 5, 2017
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Maybe if the 18z GFS is a step up and improve from there, then things will shape up and Ens will hopefully support the idea.I would love to see support from the Ens as we get closer to the time frame, but I was little more encourage to see 18z improve from 6z/12z.
JLL1973
Member
I'll take that map and call it a wintersnowman63 link said:12Z GFS Para...
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Miracle 00z runs gonna bring the first wave back
Usmeagle2005
Member
you guys usually get more than we doStormlover link said:
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
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It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all are something serious.
SimeonNC
Member
We have until Sunday for the storm to work back into our favour, after that it's game over.
I know webber doesn't have a met tag over here, but he's usually right for those who don't know him yet. He thinks the first wave will continue North and there is a possibility of a second wave maybe kinda sorta. I'll put my money on that idea.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I remember the Christmas 2010 storm went away and came back here days before it hit. I can't remember if the models had it going north and it came back south, or vice versa.
Bsudweather
Member
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Shawn link said:
Yea may have a winter storm, Maybe, Kinda, Sorta.
packfan98
Moderator
Brick Tamland link said:
It was suppressed and came back north.
JLL1973
Member
you guys usually get more than we doUsmeagle2005 link said:
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
[/quote]
It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all are something serious.
[/quote]
Well you must not go to Corinth much. In the last few years we had had very little snow. It usually goes north or south of us. I know for a fact tupelo had gotten several snows while we had nothing. I know because I've drove the 50 miles and saw it
Just some more thoughts, if the first wave comes further south like what I've been thinking. There still would be overrunning down through WV, KY, central and western TN, NW MS and down through eastern AR because it will be colder due to more of a southern track (we've seen this on past runs). With the track of the first wave on the 18z, it's too far north, there would not be any overrunning. The Precip that overruns will be in the form of ZR/IP depending on elevation, thickness values, wetbulb temp and other factors, there would even be some snow...if that first wave tracks little further south. After the first wave it gets colder (note: I've also been mentioning that) and then the 2nd wave comes up little further south and east than the first wave. Plus, we have a high coming in behind the 2nd wave which would help reinforcing the cold and would allow of a more southern track than the 1st wave. We still have the potential of a winter threat from the 2nd wave...and the 2nd wave has a higher potential for winter weather than the 1st wave. There would be more snow with the 2nd wave (if the first wave has any winter wx) cause the 850mb gets colder, the 0c line moves further south and east and the 2m temp starts to get colder. The NAO does start to trend, to neutral around the first wave and then the NAO starts to trend negative again around when the 2nd wave comes up which would mean that the 2nd wave could turn out to be an east coast low after coming up from the southeast. The 12z Euro from today does support that idea, that the 2nd wave does become a eastern coastal low.
Stormlover
Member
18Z GFS gives Huntsville 1.6 inches of snow with temps of 28-31 on Thursday night alone, before any second wave
170106/0000Z 168 02007KT 31.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171 02007KT 30.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
170106/0600Z 174 01007KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
170106/0900Z 177 01007KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 10:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
170106/0000Z 168 02007KT 31.0F SNOW 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 15:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170106/0300Z 171 02007KT 30.1F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050 11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0
170106/0600Z 174 01007KT 29.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 10:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 100| 0| 0
170106/0900Z 177 01007KT 28.3F SNOW 9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 10:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 100| 0| 0
Again, it depends on how far south the first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge. Most likely the model is picking up that it's actually IP accumulations. I have no idea where the snow is coming from. The 850mb temps won't be cold enough to support snowfall...there could be a narrow band of snow along the colder edge but I would think that the precip would be mostly IP...depends on how deep the cold layer will be.Stormlover link said:
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Stormlover
Member
Again, it depends on how far south the first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).
Again, it depends on how far south the first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge.Stormlover link said:
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[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).
[/quote]
Are you sure your looking at the right model? 18z GFS 850 temps are 5c north of Birmingham at 0z Thur and all the way till 18z Thur. The 850 temps warm to 10c even for Huntsville at 18z Thur. 850 temps start crashing over Hunstville Fri evening on that run.
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Stormlover
Member
Again, it depends on how far south the first wave will be. If it's further south, Huntsville will be on that colder edge.NorthGAWinterWx link said:
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[/quote],That's incorrect.(striked through that part) This takes the 850's into account and says the chance for snow as the precip is 100% at those times(in bold)
And I went and checked the 850's on weatherbell and they are all below freezing from the time this starts (0Z Thur night) through the period, they come crashing in from the NW and continue to fall).
[/quote]
Are you sure your looking at the right model? 18z GFS 850 temps are 5c north of Birmingham at 0z Thur and all the way till 18z Thur. The 850 temps warm to 10c even for Huntsville at 18z Thur. 850 temps start crashing over Hunstville Fri evening on that run.
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[/quote] Birmingham has nothing to do with it, and 18Z Thur has nothing to do with it. I'm not wasting any more time on someone that clearly doesn't know what he's talking about. When you find the 850's for 0Z Friday(Thur night) and into Friday, come back and talk. Do you even now how to read the times on the GFS output I posted? :
??? here's a hint, 0Z Jan 6 is 6PM Central Thur night...THAT'S ABOUT WHEN THE SNOW STARTS on the output I posted. Jeez...
Usmeagle2005
Member
you guys usually get more than we doJLL1973 link said:
[/quote]are you serious? wow....not this stuff again. I'd take where Corinth is in a heartbeat. Same junk every winter. Why would a place a few miles south of you usually get more? smh
[/quote]
It was a total joke, I do not believe in any of that voodoo or whatever you call it... it doesn't matter if I told my wife in august or we started a winter threat thread for this weekend in august. It's going to do what it's going to do.... y'all are something serious.
[/quote]
Well you must not go to Corinth much. In the last few years we had had very little snow. It usually goes north or south of us. I know for a fact tupelo had gotten several snows while we had nothing. I know because I've drove the 50 miles and saw it
[/quote]
Your right, we have been in the right spot the last few years... it's like a cycle.... mid to late 90's it was always down near Jackson or up just north of you guys. Now last year it snowed everywhere but here in January. Ok sorry back to this threat.