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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

The US snow cover extent is the big elephant in the room many are ignoring here, and its fairly atrocious for most of the southern US, minus areas at or well north of the I-40. We can hardly keep the southern extent of the snowpack inside the US/Canadian border &/or south of I-94...

Not only does this feeble snow cover feedback to moderating arctic air masses more quickly on their trek towards the southeastern US (as will occur next week), and setup a natural area of lower-level baroclinicity well to our north, but it has a directly link to the overall height pattern. Since the troposphere is heated largely via conduction at the surface, a dearth of snow cover (which when fresh reflects ~90% of incoming radiation) causes the ground temperatures to warm, therefore more radiation is absorbed @ the surface and conducted/mixed upward through the column, warming the troposphere and raising the height field... This physical concept is supported by the Hyposometric equation which states the thickness in an atmospheric layer are directly proportional to the mean temperature in the layer. Essentially what this means in a nut shell in this instance, less snow cover= warmer surface temps = more heat fluxed upward in the tropospheric column = higher heights/greater thicknesses (even @ 500mb) = stronger SER/storm track lifts northward. It's all connected... Definitely won't be impossible for us to get a canonical southern slider here, but the piss-poor snow cover is making it significantly less likely...

Oth, if a robust secondary or tertiary area of low pressure were to develop behind this first system (as the GFS/CMC depict with some wintry precip chasing the back end of the frontal boundary and associated (& weak) frontal wave), then that changes everything...
gfs_snowdepth_conus_21-1024x768.png
 
Tarheel1 link said:
A good reason to not start a thread, for a 7 day+ winter event, especially, when is been trending worse, when models have been trending worse!
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Not necessarily, this thread gives us, to discuss in for this time period and not cluttered up the Jan. thread.

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Tarheel1 link said:
A good reason to not start a thread, for a 7 day+ winter event, especially, when is been trending worse, when models have been trending worse!
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What trend? There hasn't been any consistency or trend one way or the other. The models are different, and the GFS has had three different solutions it's last three runs.
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Im surprised anyone was allowed to start a thread for an event over 5 days away. Stupid.
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Yes, because it really matters when the thread is started.  ::)
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Im surprised anyone was allowed to start a thread for an event over 5 days away. Stupid.
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come on man, don't take this to serious, lol. It's good that brick started this, this is not a done deal it's a threat. So therefore I think this thread is very reasonable
 
NorthGAWinterWx link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg4927#msg4927 date=1483121733]
A good reason to not start a thread, for a 7 day+ winter event, especially, when is been trending worse, when models have been trending worse!
Click to expand...
Not necessarily, this thread gives us, to discuss in for this time period and not cluttered up the Jan. thread.

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[/quote]

I agree 100% with this. It declutters the main Jan thread, where other things can be discussed. Whether or not it ever amounts to anything is pretty irrelevant imo. Once a system dominates the discussion, it needs to have its own thread imo.

On another note, the 12Z Euro is coning in warmer than the 0Z Euro at 850 mb ahead of any 1/6-1/8 systems. Not looking too good.
 
accu35 link said:
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg4929#msg4929 date=1483122353]
Im surprised anyone was allowed to start a thread for an event over 5 days away. Stupid.
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come on man, don't take this to serious, lol. It's good that brick started this, this is not a done deal it's a threat. So therefore I think this thread is very reasonable
[/quote] I don't consider anything a threat until we are within 5  days
 
GaWx link said:
[quote author=NorthGAWinterWx link=topic=80.msg4930#msg4930 date=1483122379]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=80.msg4927#msg4927 date=1483121733]
A good reason to not start a thread, for a 7 day+ winter event, especially, when is been trending worse, when models have been trending worse!
Click to expand...
Not necessarily, this thread gives us, to discuss in for this time period and not cluttered up the Jan. thread.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
[/quote]

I agree 100% with this. It is a decluttered of the main Jan thread, where other things can be discussed. Whether or not it ever amounts to anything is pretty irrelevant imo.

On another note, the 12Z Euro is coning in warmer than the 0Z Euro at 850 mb ahead of the 1/7 system. Not looking too good.
[/quote]
Not good! I don't see a trend at all! :(
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
[quote author=accu35 link=topic=80.msg4934#msg4934 date=1483122573]
[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=80.msg4929#msg4929 date=1483122353]
Im surprised anyone was allowed to start a thread for an event over 5 days away. Stupid.
Click to expand...
come on man, don't take this to serious, lol. It's good that brick started this, this is not a done deal it's a threat. So therefore I think this thread is very reasonable
[/quote] I don't consider anything a threat until we are within 5  days
[/quote] well actually we are in a threat if you consider the areas NW of us. There a good 5/6 days away
 
I don't see why some people are flipping out over OP runs. We went from a great track, to suppression, to cutter. The ensembles have showed each of these outcomes to a certain extent for awhile. The GEFS mean really hasn't changed much lol

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slow evolution which is good but the initial cold press isn't enough . it's gonna develop a way here in a few so we will see where it goes

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tellicowx link said:
I don't see why some people are flipping out over OP runs. We went from a great track, to suppression, to cutter. The ensembles have showed each of these outcomes to a certain extent for awhile. The GEFS mean really hasn't changed much lol

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The GEFS mean shifted considerably northward, the core of the members are now closer to the I-64 corridor vs the I-40 corridor this morning
 
The 12Z Euro has 850's of +10C at ATL vs only +2C on the prior run! Way warmer over the SE US.
 
If there are going to be bad runs, I much rather now then next week
 
nice winter storm northern miss Arkansas and west tenn as the second energy kicks

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The heaviest snow accumulation axis of the 0Z run, which stretched from NE AL to NW and central NC, shifted ~200 miles NW on the 12Z run.
 
I believe the cliff divers are going to be in full force today. No need to upset about models it is going to be up and downs.
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HartselleWeather link said:
I believe the cliff divers are going to be in full force today.
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they going ahead jump I'll take my chances
 
Let them dive!  I think it's stupid myself! Living and dying by model runs.. REALLY?! lol.  If they jump, then when they come back if the models look better again I just block them cause they have nothing constructive to offer anyways!

At any rate, sure looking interesting next weekend!  Wouldn't mind snow for my 32nd, but looks like its going to be close depending on how things evolve

HartselleWeather link said:
I believe the cliff divers are going to be in full force today.
1d0c3b9324692a6be3ecbec55cc740b1.jpg



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I also think it is awesome that brick started this thread. This is what is fun about winter weather. Kinda like a football game it has its up and downs.
 
Greg Fishel
5 mins ·
"INTRIGUING" IS ALL I CAN SAY ABOUT LATE NEXT WEEK
Here are a couple of reasons to not get too excited about snow/ice talk for late next week. First, it's a week out, and you know how that goes. To this day, I still wish we did a 5-day forecast and not a 7-day, but one has to pick their battles :). Second, there is a reason the mean annual snowfall at RDU is 6.1". It takes a special set of meteorological variables to come together in just the right fashion to pull it off. Any one parameter missing? You're goose is cooked. Even the "normal" snowfall numbers are misleading. Take January, climatologically our snowiest month with an average of 2.9". For you statistic buffs, the 50th percentile is .7". That means half the time we see .7" or less in January, and .7" or more the other half. A few active Januarys drive the mean upward, but long time residents of North Carolina know the real truth. So what about this thing late next week? It is true that a large mass of arctic air will take over much of the U.S. and that a very strong frontal zone will set up over the southeast part of the country. The more thermal contrast you have, the more potential there is for at the very least waves of low pressure to form, and at the most, major cyclones to develop.You don't need a major storm with abnormally low pressures to get abundant amounts of precipitation. All you need is a moisture source, a mechanism to make the air rise, and of course cold air if your desire is snow or ice. The one thing that bothers me about this potential event next week is the positioning of the Arctic High pressure area supplying the cold air. It's forecast to be in the Plains and not over the northeast U.S. Surface features are a reflection of what's going on in the upper atmosphere, and our most prolific winter storms here do not occur with a High over the Plains. In this scenario, the cold air has to make it over the mountains, and usually does so in a modified state. A High over the Northeast provides a direct discharge of cold arctic air into the piedmont with no orographic barriers in the way. Does this mean we have no chance for wintry weather next week? Absolutely not! It's the 'ole "wait and see" game playing out once again. Just don't want you snow lovers to get your hopes up for nothing. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than to turn low probability into high expectation, only to be disappointed once again. And for you snow haters out there, all I can say is, the odds are always in your favor!
 
Storm5 link said:
nice winter storm northern miss Arkansas and west tenn as the second energy kicks

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do you actually think this is a legit threat here in north mississippi?
 
Hi, I don't always like to give out Wintry weather, but when I do, I make sure to give it to the Gulf coast other than to GA,SC,NC!

Ridiculous how those heights just wont crash. :(

Edit: oh. that track on the 2nd wave. ew.  no wonder.
 
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