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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

weatherfide link said:
[quote author=RollTide18 link=topic=80.msg4858#msg4858 date=1483115173]
Good jinx
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Atlanta was never really in the game on this one. Besides, we desperately need the rain!
[/quote]
True. Let's be real. Accumulating snows are maybe 4 or 5 a decade.


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RollTide18 link said:
Well?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
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yep I'm with you

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Completely different look at H5. Much more energy in the Dakotas.  Not sure if that's new or what was rushing out first and suppressing the east coast.

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I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Again, we really don't have much of a snowpack in the northern tier to suppress this... We can certainly get an event here, but we usually need to see the snow cover down to about the I-70 to get a good southern slider and positively feedback to get enough cold air from within the vicinity... Having it north of I-80 & even I-90 is a big problem because that allows the oncoming arctic airmass to moderate more quickly, the heights to recovery/rise faster (hence SER is stronger, storm track lifts north, etc).
 
I always get burned when I rely on "back-end" rain to snow transition without something to generate the precipitation left behind.  Guess you could call it cold chasing moisture. :(
 
Storm5 link said:
I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Freaking out bc those stupid members are gonna be right
 
NorthGaWinter link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=80.msg4890#msg4890 date=1483116218]
I'm trying to figure out why everyone is freaking out. there have been a few ensemble members showing that type of solution. Of the run had shown a foot of snow for everyone it would be just as wrong

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Freaking out bc those stupid members are gonna be right
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its a damn Op run. do you honestly think the gfs was gonna spit out wintry solutions every run for the next 7-8 days. no chance in hell .yet if the euro comes in with a wintry solution everyone will act like it's correct and the gfs was out to lunch. it works both ways

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Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
 
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
 
I was just about to say the UKMET is supposedly coming in colder.
 
metwannabe link said:
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
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To add to this:

ukmet.png
 
Shawn link said:
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=80.msg4896#msg4896 date=1483116520]
I certainly wouldn't throw in the towel over one GFS op run but wait for the gefs and Euro just to see plus I hear the UKMET might look much better and it has done very well at times with the ns energy....  let's see

just goes to show you even with some blocking if it phases to quick it's problematic
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To add to this:

ukmet.png

[/quote]

Thanks for posting that, it's right on time.... 
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
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Yep, I mean the 12z runs yesterday were bad, then 18z & 0z runs were okay, now the 6z & 12z today have been meh. This isn't necessarily a trend, bad runs should be expected, it's not gonna be a week's worth of models showing 6 inches of snow, just not possible.
 
SD link said:
Completely different look at H5. Much more energy in the Dakotas.  Not sure if that's new or what was rushing out first and suppressing the east coast.

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that energy cause big problems with the wave interaction. the gfs tried to phase the northern and southern energy which yank our little system more to the NW

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RollTide18 link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=80.msg4895#msg4895 date=1483116514]
Still a long way to go. Have to see if this is a trend or just a bad run. Like someone else said, the models have also lost storms just to bring them back 3 days beforehand, too. Just wait and see.
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Yep, I mean the 12z runs yesterday were bad, then 18z & 0z runs were okay, now the 6z & 12z today have been meh. This isn't necessarily a trend, bad runs should be expected, it's not gonna be a week's worth of models showing 6 inches of snow, just not possible.
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From a line around Atlanta into Central SC and up through NC, the runs have never been so great for many of us.  I think what's happening are people further to your East have been holding on and seeing the pesky ridging and blocking moving out quicker and that's where the majority of complaints are originating from.  We don't count Brick because well, he's Brick.  Until he looks out the window and sees rain instead of snow, he'll hold on.
 
We were always flirting with disaster with the look..the waffling on the models at what is still days 6/7 is expected. If this were October no one would notice. There is so much going on I don't see a reason to give up.

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I'm glad a new thread is started for this time period. I'd figured there would be a consolidated low showing up sooner or later,  due to low amplitude on previous model runs.

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12z gefs wants no part of the gfs op ridge flex

12z gfs op
b47dafbf3c12b3d0e94ea1abc0cf48c4.jpg


12z gefs
8abfe11b796fa7018f877486b29e97bb.jpg


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