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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

DustinWX said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
There may not be a winter storm watch directly for ATL. I would think there would be a watch for the NE and eastern suburbs of ATL to upstate SC and into eastern NC. NE and eastern suburbs of ATL should see 3"+ of snow...increasing as you go further from there.

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The GFS feels like it's on to something to me on the general solution but I think the low either corrects itself to the north 50-100 miles or the precip shield is more expansive by 50-100 miles.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?

It's pretty cold, this is during heaviest precip in/around Atlanta...

TT_TT_PN_066_0000.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Storm5 said:
Yeah so anyway this guy right here is riding the more expansive precip shields on the gefs . the gfs op is clearly too far south

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Probably. But you know that the precip spread on an ensemble mean will tighten up as the individual members converge and we get closer to go time.

He isn't referring to the mean....he is talking about the individual members.
 
GFS makes me happy, gefs even happier
 
Deltadog03 said:
Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

This! 

Will add its the I want it all and big...just human nature anything less is a loss for those in the areas that poo poo about 1-2" event are probably the same ones who blew off snowmageden as oh just 1 or 2" that's nothing. Yes we learned temps in the 20's changes things dramatically but proves you do not have to 6-12" to cause major issues in the Deep South.
 
Storm5 said:
all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Buying a sled today?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ron Burgundy said:
Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?

It's pretty cold, this is during heaviest precip in/around Atlanta...

TT_TT_PN_066_0000.gif

Thanks Webber - really appreciate all the enlightenment you provide around here!
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
DustinWX said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
There may not be a winter storm watch directly for ATL. I would think there would be a watch for the NW and western suburbs of ATL to upstate SC and into eastern NC. NW and western suburbs of ATL should see 3"+ of snow...increasing as you go further from there.

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I could see them issuing a watch for much of North GA out of an abundance of caution and then either upgrading to a warning if conditions warrant or a advisory. Seems most appropriate at the moment with the amount of unknowns.


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This doesn't appear to be anything more than an advisory level event for the immediate Atlanta area. Depending on what you define as northern or western suburbs though could be a low end warning criteria.
 
SD said:
Storm5 said:
all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Buying a sled today?
you know me better than that . I've got two in the attic



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GEFS mean

ad819e9f802e0d6bb0d8d13170f95512.gif



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metwannabe said:
GEFS mean



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epic for yall
be27ed7ec769fe05f3f4669f7228732c.jpg


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Ukmet & NAM had colder solutions today need the Euro to continue the trend today to lineup more with GFS temps and then just need a little low love
 
metwannabe said:
GEFS mean

ad819e9f802e0d6bb0d8d13170f95512.gif



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That looks like a lot more happy people! :)
 
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
GEFS mean



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epic for yall

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Lol I wasn't requesting (but thanks!) I was trying to post it and Tapatalk was being funky.... haha
 
As we go through the next 24 hours, I think it will be important to watch the actual s/w as it slides down the west coast...the more rounded and tilted it looks, the better for Alabama, prob GA too.
 
I just want the whole board to get snow.
 
Wow. 4"+ for atl. Definitely watch criteria
 
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
GEFS mean



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epic for yall

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Lol I wasn't requesting (but thanks!) I was trying to post it and Tapatalk was being funky.... haha
back on the training wheels? ??? meet me in the parking lot and we can go over it again

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It's impressive how the GFS/GEFS continues to stand firm.
 
Here comes the GFS trend NW.....going to be alot more upset people other than Alabamians if the globals dont meet in the middle.
 
Wow, about 7 members give N ATL area 6+. 16 members would shut down Atlanta area.
 
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
Storm5 said:
metwannabe said:
GEFS mean



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epic for yall

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Lol I wasn't requesting (but thanks!) I was trying to post it and Tapatalk was being funky.... haha
back on the training wheels? ??? meet me in the parking lot and we can go over it again

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I'll pm you my address and  you can come over here for a good 'ol a**..... oh wait wrong conversation! Lol

Actually I have horrible service at my office so sometimes it doesn't work right
 
DadOfJax said:
Here comes the GFS trend NW.....going to be alot more upset people other than Alabamians if the globals dont meet in the middle.

GFS ensembles has more members that put down decent snow in the ATL area than the previous run.
 
DadOfJax said:
Here comes the GFS trend NW.....going to be alot more upset people other than Alabamians if the globals dont meet in the middle.

Edit: Nvmd
 
What time does the euro start. 12?
 
Whoa! Been out for a while ... GFS not backing down at all, GEFS showing precip spread to the NW ... this is going to be a fascinating 48 hours to watch this unfold.

IMHO, I would be surprised if FFC went full WSWatch today. Morning if the GFS viewpoint stays entrenched and we are staring potential 3"+ by sunrise tomorrow.

--30--
 
I actually think the global models have been taking baby steps in the right direction, but the global models still won't cut it outside the Carolinas...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I actually think the global models have been taking baby steps in the right direction, but the global models still won't cut it outside the Carolinas...

The Temps are moving in the right direction though and we got time for that to continue to progress to where we need it so fingers crossed on the Euro coming in colder!
 
something has to give. the gefs implies the gfs op is on crack with its south position. a NW rend would help alot of people at least see something .

problem for me is
the euro, ukmet and cmc are late bloomers and look nothing like the gefs members.

so there is still at this hour a huge battle ongoing

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ForsythSnow said:
Wow, about 7 members give N ATL area 6+. 16 members would shut down Atlanta area.

I'm trying not to get my hopes up but that panel made me giddy! Jeff Hill said there's obviously alot of unknowns but he mostly has the most snow in the mnts/NW GA/SE TN, the exact same places where models are giving almost no precip. Go figure!
 
Just a warning, the map from the 12z GFS that Storm posted earlier which had just north of Montgomery getting 4-6" was showing ZR and IP. Don't put too much stock in the snow totals if you can't see the soundings. Ok there is my most pessimistic post today, enjoy.
 
I like what I'm reading on here today, keep up the positive vibes!!

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Does anyone have the Map for ice off the 12z GFS


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