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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

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That's not a weenie run, that has potential IMO. Once the low gets off the southeast coast, we'll see a lot more moisture and good convective snow bands.

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I trust the Germans. They are smart people
 
Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

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hell it's a wennie run for many ( relative to the sh**** trends some of us have been dealing with "
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SD said:
Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol
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This will replace the ARPGE for me
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The German's take over the French? You don't say.
 
Storm5 said:
ARCC said:
Just about punt time.
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lol anything for you down that way is a win. no need to punt yet

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Very true, but at this point even that is hanging by a thread. One more run of the GFS with slightly warmer mid level temps and I'm done, besides possibly a little sleet or so.
 
Lol WTVC channel 9 calling for a dusting KCHA & SE TN ?
 
I think most in the I20 corridor will get some snow. It may be 1/2 inch in western areas but we will see some snow which is better than what the models where showing two weeks ago with the prolonged torch. We should all be happy.
 
CummingWx said:
SoutheastRidge said:
I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?
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I'm thinking the only office that has the greatest overall model consistency for winter storm criteria snow is eastern NC which is still too early for a watch, since they're the farthest east.
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FFC is not gonna budge unless the Euro does.


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The 6z NAVGEM gets going pretty late and looks like it does almost purely from the GOM disturbance and not from the western disturbance. I think it might be good for some areas.
 
ukmet looks weaker vs previous runs and a blend of the cmc and euro

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So, it looks like the Euro, UK, and Canadian are all pretty consistent with their amounts for around my area, with the GFS showing less.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

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Sorry for the newbie question, but how are temps on that map for GA and SC?
 
From what I can tell, the german model was created in collaboration with ECMWF granted I'm not sure wrt its accuracy. The meteograms at RDU showed it dropping ~ 7-9" of snow, not bad.
 
FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO
 
ATLWxFan said:
CummingWx said:
SoutheastRidge said:
I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?
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I'm thinking the only office that has the greatest overall model consistency for winter storm criteria snow is eastern NC which is still too early for a watch, since they're the farthest east.
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FFC is not gonna budge unless the Euro does.


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The good thing about all the models is most AT LEAST give us some kind of precip, so I expect to at least see some kind of frozen or freezing precip in the friday-saturday time frame, which in the south is a win in itself.
 
FFC IMO will likely issue a Winter Weather Advisory sometime late tomorrow if model trends continue. I doubt they issue a WSW at this point.
 
Snowfan said:
FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO
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I believe they will wait until at least tomorrow morning before pulling the trigger, but if they do based off of current data, it would only be for the mountains of N GA.
 
Guidelines for winter advisories for FFC if anyone needs a refresher.
http://www.weather.gov/ffc/winterweathersafety
 
Snowfan said:
FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO
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I wouldn't think anything would be issued until tomorrow

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RollTide18 said:
Deltadog03 said:
Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.
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Atlanta shut down over the mention of snow. Nuff said
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Fixed that for you!

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The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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ForsythSnow said:
Snowfan said:
FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO
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I believe they will wait until at least tomorrow morning before pulling the trigger, but if they do based off of current data, it would only be for the mountains of N GA.
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As of now, aren't the mnts possibly expecting less snow than areas further to the south around Gainesville? At least that's how I'm reading all of these maps.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.
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Lol, Chris, they are young, expecting the world.  Wait until they have had their hopes dashed over and over, in ever more imaginative ways for half a century...then they'll show the proper respect for any..Any...frozen precip.  Of course, I'm coming from a Ga perspective, where, usually, if there is a chance for winter precip, it won't, lol.  And inch here is something...3 or 4 is major.  Larry will tell you how common 3 to 4, or more is around here, lol....and it's not.  And to get a big snow in winter, instead of spring, even less common.  Most of my deep snows have been spring snows..melting as fas as it falls. Get one that has some deep cold behind it, and you've got something.  T
 
I think CLT and the upstate could see a WSW
 
Yeah so anyway this guy right here is riding the more expansive precip shields on the gefs . the gfs op is clearly too far south

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DustinWX said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seein4g has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
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Im not familiar with the criteria for a watch in atl but wouldn't 2 inches qualify for a watch ?
 
all 12z gefs members are hits here except one.

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Storm5 said:
Yeah so anyway this guy right here is riding the more expansive precip shields on the gefs . the gfs op is clearly too far south

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Image? Cant see here at the restricted office...
 
SoutheastRidge said:
DustinWX said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seein4g has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
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Im not familiar with the criteria for a watch in atl but wouldn't 2 inches qualify for a watch ?
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http://www.weather.gov/ffc/winterweathersafety

Technically I guess it would...
 
stormcentral said:
Lol WTVC channel 9 calling for a dusting KCHA & SE TN ?
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Are you thinking more ? I haven't seen anything that really gives us more than an inch if that.


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CummingWx said:
ForsythSnow said:
Snowfan said:
FFC will wait for the 12z Euro to see if they want to issue a Winter Storm Watch. IMO
Click to expand...

I believe they will wait until at least tomorrow morning before pulling the trigger, but if they do based off of current data, it would only be for the mountains of N GA.
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As of now, aren't the mnts possibly expecting less snow than areas further to the south around Gainesville? At least that's how I'm reading all of these maps.
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As mentioned earlier, FFC is taking a more Euro route, which takes the storm northward more than the GFS does. IF the Euro goes towards the GFS, they will likely meet for Atlanta northward towards the mountains, and Atlanta area northward would get a watch.
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah so anyway this guy right here is riding the more expansive precip shields on the gefs . the gfs op is clearly too far south

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Probably. But you know that the precip spread on an ensemble mean will tighten up as the individual members converge and we get closer to go time.
 
GEFS slight tick NW but more expansive qpf then the op run that's for sure
 
DustinWX said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The NWS offices would most likely put out winter storm watches from ATL through SC and up to eastern NC. A winter storm watch is usually issued 12-48hrs before the event.

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Based on the GFS? Everything else I'm seeing has 1-2 inches for our area. I don't see ATL or SC having winter storm watches.
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Probably so. We are not at 50% probability for 2 inches.


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Yeah the gefs does not support the OPs low position

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