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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Storm5 said:
SnowrockinGA said:
Deltadog03 said:
great changes all the way around, but still too warm at hr 72...yes its better, moisture moving in...but its all rain at this point. it appears
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For Atlanta or what areas?
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precip is south of atlanta

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How's it look for BHM?
 
baby step in the right direction . time is a ticking we are on the clock now

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Storm5 said:
Storm5 said:
precip looks further south

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precip further NW this run

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PBP problems...
 
I swear this is more moisture...wintry mix bag from CAE to RDU at hr84 elsewhere too warm...
 
Shawn, I thought you said the colder air was able to filter in ahead of time which would help a lot of people ?
 
Looks like it develops way too late for western areas.

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Storm5 said:
baby step in the right direction . time is a ticking we are on the clock now

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Was the 12z a cold rain also, but this run was colder?
 
good run for NC

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Storm5 said:
baby step in the right direction . time is a ticking we are on the clock now

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Yup....now the temps start to really come into play imo
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Shawn, I thought you said the colder air was able to filter in ahead of time which would help a lot of people ?
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That was to a question about precip arriving later, not the current 00z Euro run.
 
Seriously, lots of wrong pbp posts for days on this board, can we start warning people for that? Doesn't happen much on other boards. I haven't said anything about this before but we are getting closer to the event.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Storm5 said:
good run for NC

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bad run for all of North GA ?
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precip shield kept further south . but in general it was NW of 12z . need it to develop earlier for our areas

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Starting to think if you live south of Atlanta, you better start praying for better temps
 
Why do we have temp issues now!?
 
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SnowFlowXXL said:
Starting to think if you live south of Atlanta, you better start praying for better temps
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Nothing worse than a cold rain after you were expecting snow. Its like a slap in the face.
 
Whats wrong with the pbp......Looks too warm for everyone except maybe CAE, GSP and points NE of there. could be more icing vs all snow in that 85 corridor...then to snow...maybe a little snow backside in GA and AL...
 
chapelhillwx said:
Storm5 said:
Storm5 said:
precip looks further south

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precip further NW this run

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PBP problems...
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I meant north ...damn tough crowd late at night

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Storm5 said:
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You scared me a little bit storm, but that's showing a good 2"+ for much of North GA.
 
Little bit better run overall for snow totals for some areas. I wouldn't say it was a bad step at all everyone.
 
So far so good with my thinking. Still going with a blend of CMC and GFS with snowfall amounts and temps. As I mentioned earlier, the track of low would keep the 850mb from warming. The surface temps get colder cause the colder air is still filtering in as the low pushes off to the SE coast. We may start off as rain but it will quickly change over to snow. Depending on how the 0z Euro snowfall accumulations will be, I may put that in with the CMC and GFS.
 
Storm5 said:
I meant north ...damn tough crowd late at night

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Just messing with you man, loving the forum so far.
 
Dang it! Why doesn't Tropical Tidbits have precip data for the Euro? 850 temps are looking good for CHA on the Euro. Can someone tell me if it's bringing us some precip love this far north?
 
HixsonWX said:
Dang it! Why doesn't Tropical Tidbits have precip data for the Euro? 850 temps are looking good for CHA on the Euro. Can someone tell me if it's bringing us some precip love this far north?
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It costs a fortune to license the data. like, quarter million type numbers for the suite. Precip data, not sure but not cheap.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Storm5 said:
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You scared me a little bit storm, but that's showing a good 2"+ for much of North GA.
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One to two for Metro Atlanta...better than 12z!
 
So the GFS (+ensembles) holds serve, and the CMC and Euro are verbatim too warm. I'm not sure if I like those odds all that much.

bouncycorn said:
What is PBP?
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Play by play; i.e. the posts you see analyzing every frame of the latest model run.
 
Appears from comparing the last few Euro runs the snow js edging northeast each time.
 
Yeah, I could live with a blend. 2-4 inches of snow here in my area and I'll call it a success.
 
Euro improved from 12z run and had early signs that hopefully will continue, I'm thinking GFS/CMC solution combo as well will be a new correction as continues I don't expect a huge jump though
 
Shawn said:
HixsonWX said:
Dang it! Why doesn't Tropical Tidbits have precip data for the Euro? 850 temps are looking good for CHA on the Euro. Can someone tell me if it's bringing us some precip love this far north?
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It costs a fortune to license the data. like, quarter million type numbers.
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Oh yeah, I'm sure based on the price of subscriptions. They have most of the other Euro data, though. Just not the precip...
 
Olaf said:
Appears from comparing the last few Euro runs the snow js edging northeast each time.
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Still 3 days for things to change. Lets keep hope alive.
 
We shall see. But south of I-20 I think we are setting up for a cold ass rain. :(
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, I could live with a blend. 2-4 inches of snow here in my area and I'll call it a success.
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Ya. If we can get that high to move in sooner we be gold. But I don't know ifor that's going to happen
 
HixsonWX said:
Shawn said:
HixsonWX said:
Dang it! Why doesn't Tropical Tidbits have precip data for the Euro? 850 temps are looking good for CHA on the Euro. Can someone tell me if it's bringing us some precip love this far north?
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It costs a fortune to license the data. like, quarter million type numbers.
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Oh yeah, I'm sure based on the price of subscriptions. They have most of the other Euro data, though. Just not the precip...
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If I am not mistaken that data you see is free.  Notice you don't have 500mb Vorticity and things like that which are very important.  I think they call it "WMO ESSENTIAL" or something like that anyone can access and generate maps from.
 
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