wow
Member
You mean WeatherBELL's own Spire model? Sigh...
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Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
You mean WeatherBELL's own Spire model? Sigh...
SimeonNC
Member
I think the best case scenario for the areas affected by Helene in this set up would be a snow-to-sleet event with the lower elevations getting the brunt of any possible ZR
Oh my goodness we might really be doing this. EC ai with a traditional CAD area winter storm now 
has a front end snow thump as well north of CLT into GSO 
has a front end snow thump as well north of CLT into GSO
wow
Member
Lol...
Enjoy the weather. It's the only weather ya got. Good times watching his videos in the early '00s. I did learn a lot about teleconnections.. always on the lookout for the Hawaiian traffic cop... trough E of HI, ridging in the SW ... just try to stick a cutoff ULL back there!
JHS
Member
Usually when CAD is involved the mountains either get rain or snow, except the French Broad valley counties of Henderson and Buncombe. Those 2 counties can be nailed with ice. Another exception is right on the escarpment from northeast of Asheville up towards Sparta and West Jefferson. That area was NAILED just before Christmas of 2009 with one of the worst icestorms to hit NC in a long time. Luckily it was just in that 20-30 mile wide area.
Brent
Member
I smell a flash freeze Sunday afternoon if that verifies
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Dark Blue is 8”. Shave off two inches for every color beneath it
packfan98
Moderator
What model is this?
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Do you have access to total ice?
This is one more tick away from a legit ice storm/IP event for more borderline CAD areas and a 40 paste job
-2 for me
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Here we go, this is better:
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Doesn’t seem to have an ice accum map
SnowmasterATL
Member
Question for clarity, Atlanta is not in this storm correct for wintry precip right?
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, looks legit...
I mean, we are still 5 days away, these things flip all the time.
wow
Member
Waiting for the EE rule to make a decision
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rburrel2
Member
There’s still a lot of time for radical shifts. I wouldn’t count anything out yet. Conventional wisdom says this wave should trend further south and weaker.
Will really make me feel good about it if the gfs at least holds serve tonight if not adjust south some.
Will really make me feel good about it if the gfs at least holds serve tonight if not adjust south some.
It wobbled north ~150m last run. If the press is on it will move south again. Otherwise it was trending towards other guidance. Not convinced of that just yet.
Pops
Member
Probably gonna chase thinking Lexington ky whatcha think?
wow
Member
Throw out the MRF.. suppressed as usual
BTW, you can check out GG's usenet posts leading up to the '96 storm here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/61433-the-gary-gray-files-jan-96/
Gives real perspective on models starting only 4 days prior to the storm. The MRF was still suppressed!
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Brent
Member
NCSNOW
Member
Icon time out to 72
ICON already looks better. More confluence this run so far 
iGRXY
Member
S/W is actually ejecting east this run with more HPiGRXY
Member
S/W sliding east, much better confluence and a stronger -NAO.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I like this icon run more
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Well it’s over you vs @Brett so I do too.
NCSNOW
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wow
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12 hour trend with new vs old
12z:
12z:
