NCSNOW
Member
Icon will atleast ice. If that 1040 hp over dakotas can get out in front, we will get a nice event. Neck an neck right now
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Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
Much better vs 12zAvalanche
Member
Temps are better, but still marginal outside the frontrange. Continues to be an eekie situation
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it will not look anything like AI but it did go south
iGRXY
Member
This thing is only making it to east TN before traversing to the coast already. If this continues we will quickly walk ourselves into an Ice storm.
I’ll take a southern trend regardless. We continue to see models other than the gfs bringing it south and we’re in business
iGRXY
Member
It's significantly better vs 12z. You're hardly ever going to get a clean flip in the medium range. Just has to keep trending better each run.
Noticeable slowing trend on this one 
NCSNOW
Member
Im millineters away from glory on that. Needed a little stronger confluence from NE or HP in southern canada to get out front more, work in tandem. Wave took its sweet time ejecting but was south. Does a ne hook, slight cut move at the end.
That icon run was probably a big sleet storm on the south side of that snow band
wow
Member
Crap german models
The ICON is like a dart without feathers. Pretty soon it's going to merge storm 1 and 2 together at this rate.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even more digging on this gfs run
Showmeyourtds
Member
Correct- based on current modeling Atlanta and just about all of North and Central Georgia wouldn’t see much, if any wintry precipitation from this storm.
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NCSNOW
Member
Energy coming on shore CA, notch slower an futher south
Yeah old vs new look at er dig
I like it but idk if I do, not sure if I like the bubble ridge in the C US being stronger, but it’s more of a response to the S/W being a lower latitude. the snowiest run was weaker with this feature 
wow
Member
6z was a bit further south than this
Not sure if I like this run 
I don't like it at all. Going to be a big fail.
Well that’s a jump northwest!
Probably gonna be an ice fest run. Still a stout wedge starting to show up
Yeah nc gets it good with ice here
StoneColdHeel
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is starting to get a more classic CAD look at 500mb w/ greater stream separation & the southern stream wave digging into the Southern Plains.
Problem is, the parent surface high isn't as strong as I'd like it to be, but this can still work.
StoneColdHeel
Member
NCSNOW
Member
7mb stronger and 50 miles futher north,plus 3 hours latter on arrival. We need the 12z weaker 7mb and 100 miles futher south
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This event will live or die with whatever we can squeeze out of the initial FGEN band. This run is more paltry.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I’m not sure I totally buy the surface output on the GFS that run. 500 mb pretty much in lock step with previous run, tilt a little more neutral
It’s worth noting the CMC looks more south due to slighlty more confluence, probably gonna be slightly better then 12z
NCSNOW
Member
Thinking we need wave to scoot a notch quicker, slower aint gonna get us more HP in front it looks like. You think it would. A little quicker maybe the blocking confluence in ne can help us with better thermals
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z GFS run seems more realistic generally speaking
Eh the cmc is weaker/slightly more squashed with the system but has less cad
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian transfers from wva to senc. Miller bish
CAD is there at the surface east of the mtns. Timing favors more snow/sleet if precip is here 18z Sunday to 6z Monday. Last run precip arrived too late and led to more mixing with warm air. However, we gonna wetbulb regardless at some point leading to a winter storm along i77 minimum, due to cold dry air. Models won’t be able to truely see these cold pockets.
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet
Looks awesome!! Unreal we can't have a bit of luck with winter weather. I don't think it can snow here period.....................................
Looks like we can fire up the severe thread