Euro is a VA hit 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
iGRXY
Member
EURO says no to anybody along and south of 40 at 141
packfan98
Moderator
Euro was a good bit further south than 0z. Low is tracking west to east. A step toward consensus of it being a VA and Mid Atlantic storm. GFS is the southern most solution. Let’s see what happens over the next 24 hours. Going to be close for CAD regions to get something.
SimeonNC
Member
What are the 2m temps on the Euro for the storm?
Closer to what I’m thinking I’ll have a map later this week. Really not expecting ice. Snow mix or cold rain.
UKMET was also a hard nope. Probably to far north but Idk something doesn’t ring it for me with this one. The GFS on a southern island isn’t very encouraging to me at all. We need to start seeing trends asap on other major global NWP and ensembles to more confluence other then the GFS/GEFS
packfan98
Moderator
Notice the track. Almost ticks SE at as it nears the coast.
NCSNOW
Member
Knew that was coming. Could tell looking at UKMET. We get to wait and see who folds em and who holds em. I know who not to bet against, thats for sure!
NCSNOW
Member
One big trend is no Gloals have a snow footprint in PA anymore, except Ukmet, maybe icon. Its all settled south to VA, save America suite even futher south into Carolinas,north GA.
Very good consensus between Euro/EPS/Canadian and GEFS.
BHS1975
Member
Yeah ukie/euro combo is not to be messed with. Gonna build the snowpack at least.
If the Greenland block is really going to be as strong as advertised, and that huge 50/50, is in place, then the storm will correct south. We usually don't have these features in place, so we see cutter after cutter.
We're in for a winter storm with this one IF the features mentioned above turn out to be real and as strong and as well-positioned as advertised.
We're in for a winter storm with this one IF the features mentioned above turn out to be real and as strong and as well-positioned as advertised.
This has been my basic reasoning for watching this period all along. -NAO and 50/50 are established, so it would favor a southern slider / further south event. I'm honestly not worried at this point - if every model was showing a hit over us at this range that would also be concerning haha. I think we're in the game for sure.
We have had rare occasions where systems trended south for those very reasons. If Euro doesn't shift any further south in next 24 hrs, this one is on life support, but it's too early to say that fow now.
It's rare, but it has happened. I've seen the Euro correct 900 miles towards the GFS with a winter event. These aren't huge differences and considering the pattern, it's 50/50 in my mind.Op runs compared...GFS on an island at the momemt. How many times has the GFS scored a win at day 5 against everyone else...
View attachment 158134
rburrel2
Member
NC can still get a freezing rain event even with these further north tracks as long as there’s actually some prefrontal waa precip in the area. The air mass in place is dry/cold and the globals will be under doing it. (Except the cmc which is usually too cold)
Twister
Member
What's the chance we see the EURO cave within next couple days
SimeonNC
Member
Dew points the afternoon before precip comes in.
John1122
Member
May not be the case this year, but both were bad last January with the snow event here in Tennessee. The UKIE was wound tight and areas that got a 10 inch snowfall were in the 50s with rain on it 84 hours out. The Euro was even worse, it went from a cutter to extreme suppression and didn't actually get close to what happened until around 60-72 hour out runs.
BHS1975
Member
Touché
SimeonNC
Member
I personally think the CMC is the most realistic solution out of 12z suite, GFS is out to lunch, unless the NAO block and the 50/50 completely disappears there's no way the storm cuts like the UK has it. And the Euro historically doesn't catch on to CAD events this far out.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
The gfs ens says it’s not out to lunch
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah the thing I’m (still) worried about here is the high is in the wrong spot for a CAD event & we don’t really have a good mechanism to keep the cold firmly locked in place in the low-levels. Everything still looks great at 500mb.
This can definitely work but we are leaving the door wide open for the heaviest snow/ice to shoot northward at the last second.
I’d personally like to see the wave slow down so more cold air can get out in front of it, then I’d be a happy camper.
Insitu Wedge
iGRXY
Member
If and it’s a big if you keep the -NAO that all are showing, we could very easily just get a storm that moves west to east vs cutting straight northeast with more relaxed heights out ahead of it. But I also think this has a much higher probably of being an ice issue for pretty much everybody south of the Va border if it does anything other than rain. It’s very likely to go inland without a real CAD damming high like you said it’s just a matter of how far inland does it go
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
VA hit but it’s only 10 miles north of me would be roughhhh
Ugh, Euro was not good for here. Showing a cutter.
I would roll all day with that 1" down here!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GSP now has Rain and snow in my forecast for Sunday night and Monday. Low Sunday night 27 degrees with a 60% chance of precip. Going to be fun to track.
I saw this earlier. I think this is the general consensus for the upstate as well. Have it here in Rock Hill too
weather bubba
Member
I too would like to see that wave slow down and allow the cold air to become more infused with this system. Unfortunately the model runs I've seen seem to be gradually speeding this wave up. Timing is a crucial element for this potential winter weather producer and the other possible winter storms that come our way in the Southeast.
Still plenty of time to trend back in our favor. But if the trends continue for the next few runs she might be cooked. Still feel confident something will happen before mid month.
It did slow the storm a bit. The next frame it jumps to the coast and does change the interior parts of NC over to freezing rain.
Attachments
From RAH (..not bad):
"Sun-Tue: Attention then turns to a storm system crossing our region
Sun evening through early Tue, a mid level shortwave trough still
currently well out over the open Pacific. Confidence is fairly high
that cold air will remain in place, as the Arctic high will still be
extending into the CWA from the NW Sun, and the shortwave trough
should be fairly robust with a track through the mid Miss Valley
and, ultimately, culminating in a likely Miller-B type surface
cyclogenesis pattern. What is uncertain, however, is the timing,
with about 12-18 hours difference among deterministic models and a
high spread in heights aloft among the LREF and NBM members, as well
as the track of the primary and triple-point/secondary surface lows,
which will affect how much any cold air gets locked in and/or how
much warm air exists just aloft. For now, given that this system
should be able to tap into some moisture, will keep chance pops,
starting Sun night, peaking at good chances Mon morning, then
trending down and out W to E Mon night. The potential for some
wintry precip, either exclusively or mixed with rain, will be across
the far N, from the Triad across the near Roanoke Rapids late Sun
night through Mon morning, with a lesser but non-zero chance of a
period of wintry precip or mixture from Badin Lake across the
Triangle area to Rocky Mount-Wilson. Again, though, major timing and
track differences continue to bring uncertainty. It`s far too early
to talk about specific amounts, with broad ranges among multiple
models and ensemble system members. Any precip should be exiting by
Tue morning, with clearing skies. Expect highs generally in the 40s
Sun and Tue with 40s to lower 50s Mon. Lows in the mid 20s to low-
mid 30s. -GIH"
"Sun-Tue: Attention then turns to a storm system crossing our region
Sun evening through early Tue, a mid level shortwave trough still
currently well out over the open Pacific. Confidence is fairly high
that cold air will remain in place, as the Arctic high will still be
extending into the CWA from the NW Sun, and the shortwave trough
should be fairly robust with a track through the mid Miss Valley
and, ultimately, culminating in a likely Miller-B type surface
cyclogenesis pattern. What is uncertain, however, is the timing,
with about 12-18 hours difference among deterministic models and a
high spread in heights aloft among the LREF and NBM members, as well
as the track of the primary and triple-point/secondary surface lows,
which will affect how much any cold air gets locked in and/or how
much warm air exists just aloft. For now, given that this system
should be able to tap into some moisture, will keep chance pops,
starting Sun night, peaking at good chances Mon morning, then
trending down and out W to E Mon night. The potential for some
wintry precip, either exclusively or mixed with rain, will be across
the far N, from the Triad across the near Roanoke Rapids late Sun
night through Mon morning, with a lesser but non-zero chance of a
period of wintry precip or mixture from Badin Lake across the
Triangle area to Rocky Mount-Wilson. Again, though, major timing and
track differences continue to bring uncertainty. It`s far too early
to talk about specific amounts, with broad ranges among multiple
models and ensemble system members. Any precip should be exiting by
Tue morning, with clearing skies. Expect highs generally in the 40s
Sun and Tue with 40s to lower 50s Mon. Lows in the mid 20s to low-
mid 30s. -GIH"
NWMSGuy
Member
Well that 12Z run of the GFS got the Memphis crew talking. 
