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Wintry 1/5-7 Winter Weather

Wxrisk cherry picking as usual. I expect many more changes in regards to NC and VA weather. Either gonna rain in Virginia or most of the precip stays south of Blacksburg. Currently thinking 1-2” of snow/sleet/ice mix from Hickory NC and points n/e. Higher amounts along the blue ridge. Even with poor track there’s a lot of cold dry air prior that the euro cannot see this far out.
 
Tulsa has no idea which sounds about right

The cold front will usher in a much
colder polar airmass in its wake and wintry precipitation will be
possible as the system departs. Model profiles mostly show a quick
transition to snow with some freezing rain for a time Sunday
night. Again, there is still a lot of uncertainty in track and
timing with some solutions possibly having much more winter
impacts. Continue to check back for updates as we monitor the
trends and guidance come into better agreement.
 
ISO bars are very wavy from n/e Georgia into western NC on the rainy euro model. Despite the 32 line along and north of border counties some of the point and click soundings are near 27 degrees at Sparta NC. If we trend cooler (which euro and NAM usually do) then wintry mix accumulations will rise over areas that have surface cold dry air in place.
 
Clown ptype looks like it’s gonna go for it again but I don’t have 500mb stuff
 
packfan98 said:
The low gets sheared out and split around the mountains. If we can keep it just south of the mountains, NC is golden.
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Best change here is that the wave didn’t get completely destroyed this time and still managed to bring the heavy snow east of the mountains
 
First Guess. My best guess is a blend of the gfs and euro…mostly cad areas see the snow/sleet/freezing rain 1-3” with glazing (Hickory and Yadkinville). Fringe areas of Charlotte to Raleigh up to 1” mixed sleet and glaze with some snow mixing onset. Northern mountains and northern foothills 2-4” snow then mix.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
First Guess. My best guess is a blend of the gfs and euro…mostly cad areas see the snow/sleet/freezing rain 1-3” with glazing (Hickory and Yadkinville). Fringe areas of Charlotte to Raleigh up to 1” mixed sleet and glaze with some snow mixing onset. Northern mountains and northern foothills 2-4” snow then mix.
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Sounds reasonable. I would like to see more support from other models.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
First Guess. My best guess is a blend of the gfs and euro…mostly cad areas see the snow/sleet/freezing rain 1-3” with glazing (Hickory and Yadkinville). Fringe areas of Charlotte to Raleigh up to 1” mixed sleet and glaze with some snow mixing onset. Northern mountains and northern foothills 2-4” snow then mix.
Click to expand...
Well you left out the upstate
 
Twister said:
Well you left out the upstate
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Widespread mixing to cold rain. Slushy in areas. More subject to change there closer to the warm nose but still gotta watch the track could really change things still.
 
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