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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

So far every model is coming together. On a system that’s way to far south to give anyone a storm. Could it change sure. But time is running out.


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Still too early for me to give up on this one. I know it is a broken record, but this reminds me of how things looked with the Christmas 2010 storm with the models showing the precip too far south. I would not be surpassed if the precip starts coming back north on the models by Thursday.
 
Here are my early morning thoughts. Not too optimistic at this point. I assume models need to get a grip of the spread seen on the EPS at some point, so I’m probably 30% optimistic right now. Not liking what I’m seeing and the FV3 and Euro are both showing the same trends in the shortwave.

Sorry it would take too long to repost here but this is a thread (5 total posts on this tweet)



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Jon said:
Here are my early morning thoughts. Not too optimistic at this point. I assume models need to get a grip of the spread seen on the EPS at some point, so I’m probably 30% optimistic right now. Not liking what I’m seeing and the FV3 and Euro are both showing the same trends in the shortwave.

Sorry it would take too long to repost here but this is a thread (5 total posts on this tweet)



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Good info, but of course it's more telling that the models are losing the system entirely. Those EPS members seem to all be trending away from anything respectable in size and into a Florida rainstorm that goes out to sea. The separation also is killing it. I also noticed the models are detaching the wave as it trends SW into deeper suppression.
 
Didn’t we say that we needed to watch for the models and the ensembles to go south then we would know the NW trend would begin between days 3 and 5. Is this still what we should watch for?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Good info, but of course it's more telling that the models are losing the system entirely. Those EPS members seem to all be trending away from anything respectable in size and into a Florida rainstorm that goes out to sea. The separation also is killing it. I also noticed the models are detaching the wave as it trends SW into deeper suppression.
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Yeah I touched in those points as well. You can see the animated gif of the eps member mslp the model is losing the mean center of the low and spreading the members out further as we get closer...huge sign we are losing the system, either that OR the model is confused wrt timing and there might be slower and faster lows. We’d want the latter.


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Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Didn’t we say that we needed to watch for the models and the ensembles to go south then we would know the NW trend would begin between days 3 and 5. Is this still what we should watch for?
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A Nw trend will be welcome now. For this to work out, the shortwave must be wrong and trend eastward (on the west coast) therefore speeding it up. This will help with a NW trend in the surface low...but I have low confidence in this solution


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I posted this in banter but may be something we can hang our hats on especially folks along the east coast, look at the track forecast and verification of the Dec. 2010 storm. Talk about a NW shift

hpc.compare.chart.animation.gif
 
I think our better shot for most on here is going to be after this weekends system.

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Although trends overnight and yesterday haven't been good, I've noticed the GEFS still has a wide range of solutions and once in awhile the FV3 is throwing out a bomb of a storm. The setup is pretty close and if the PV eases up some as it usually does inside 96 hours then we could easily see this shifit back NW quite quickly. What's really interesting to me is how much further north the PV is on the NAVGEM which typically has a suppression bias. It's hard to tell what would happen but based on this 5H look I would expect a pretty nice LP to form.
1548166954063.png
 
Bsud said:
I think our better shot for most on here is going to be after this weekends system.

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I agree but even the 2nd system looks like a frontal passage. However that might work for western south east Mississippi Alabama west Georgia Tennessee


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Jon said:
A Nw trend will be welcome now. For this to work out, the shortwave must be wrong and trend eastward (on the west coast) therefore speeding it up. This will help with a NW trend in the surface low...but I have low confidence in this solution


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Alot of us are still in need of cold air also. I can't imagine the press will be that hard. There still is some time for this guy to come back but after tomorrow, we might be grasping at straws.
 
deltadog03 said:
Not liking the trends..... sorry y’all. Optimism going down. Still have time for improvement for sure, but this time Wednesday if still looking bad, might be game over.
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Its cool man, If this one doesn't work out, and if Monday/Tuesday system does, then you should refresh and start over with a new thread if everything is going good. You need a another chance .
 
I think if this storm brings winter weather to any region the most likely areas would be Central and maybe Eastern NC depending on track. It would take a pretty strong storm like the FV3 has shown a few times and like the 00z UK shows. This is still a good possibility even though models don't show it and I wouldn't be surprised if we see them shifting back this way tonight or tomorrow.
 
I hope I’m posting the right energy and I hope Im seeing this correctly but the NAM is not digging as SW with the energy as the GFS/FV3, maybe a good sign for the 12z camp?

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png
 
RollTide18 said:
I hope I’m posting the right energy and I hope Im seeing this correctly but the NAM is not digging as SW with the energy as the GFS/FV3, maybe a good sign for the 12z camp?

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png
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Yeah I said that earlier and Storm said it was the energy after that one.


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When I glanced at 6z gefs this morning, looks as if the placements of the low was north abit. There were a few big hits for the deep south, while other barely missed by a hair, and other that did go further south. I though the run was more encouraging, seeing a slight NW movement with that run. Something tells me, someone in the SE is gonna see snow in a few days
 
BHS1975 said:
Yeah I said that earlier and Storm said it was the energy after that one.


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I think he was talking about Monday/Tuesday system I believe
 
RollTide18 said:
I hope I’m posting the right energy and I hope Im seeing this correctly but the NAM is not digging as SW with the energy as the GFS/FV3, maybe a good sign for the 12z camp?

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png


fv3p_z500_vort_us_16.png
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You're looking at the right piece of energy. The NAM seems to have the ridge shifted east a little versus the GFS/FV3 which have it more off the coast and digging more.
 
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