Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

[Jon]

Looking at CMC H5 precipitation should of definitely been there.

Energy is also weaker than the previous run. That’s not going to get done, as it gets neutral way too late and our low forms off the coast.

I’ve posted on the ridge before, but you can use these two frames for Jan 26 at 18z for model runs going forward and you can essentially predict if a storm will be there or not.

We need a tall ridge out west, like this

Which allows our shortwave (if modeled strong enough) to dig south

You can see this allows the energy to go neutral tilt over the Florida panhandle

Now look at the cmc, ridge looks good but there’s no shortwave. There has to be a strong shortwave digging by 18z Jan 26 in order to have a large widespread SE snow.

Same thing on the gfs
Ridge is crap, and it deposits a weird ULL in California

The energy kicks out and fizzles, and the storm is dominated by the northern stream. Causes an inland solution.


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[GeorgiaGirl]

But yeah, the GFS somehow went from strung out energy to dumping that energy into the SW? Unless the ensembles really change to support that, I don't know about that happening.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Honestly I have been following these boards and others since 2008 and I have seen this song and dance before. More often then not the s/w trends weaker and weaker on the models as the event nears when they come out of southwest Canada. I would not be surprised at all if this thing ends up something like this by the time periods roles through. This is just based on past experience. Would be nice to buck that trend.

True. But on this run it’s closed off sitting in California

 

[Ethan80963]

ICON=not good at end of its run
GFS=Changes every run
CMC=Also flips every run

Just keep an eye on the ensembles

 

[mydoortotheworld]

True. But on this run it’s closed off sitting in California

That’s what I thought, closing off is like the opposite of weak, no?

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Why people upset Gfs usually show a storm then it disappear only to come back 2-4 days before event.

 

[RollTide18]

Why people upset Gfs usually show a storm then it disappear only to come back 2-4 days before event.

Basically this, if the Ensembles, FV3 and Euro holds serve then we can toss the GFS in the bushes for now, it’ll be late to the party again.

 

[Kylo]

FV

 

[Brick Tamland]

ICON=not good at end of its run
GFS=Changes every run
CMC=Also flips every run

Just keep an eye on the ensembles

I would say the ensembles and the FV3. Maybe the Euro will come around, too. Right now those two ops and the ensembles seem to be the most accurate.

 

[Storm5]

I would say the ensembles and the FV3. Maybe the Euro will come around, too. Right now those two ops and the ensembles seem to be the most accurate.

Don’t be surprised IF the gefs backs off a little


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[Cad Wedge NC]

Basically this, if the Ensembles, FV3 and Euro holds serve then we can toss the GFS in the bushes for now, it’ll be late to the party again.

Yep, right now I am more concerned with a storm that is wide right vs. one that gets stuck in California.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

when This far out and with a strong northern stream I’m not really surprised that some op models are kinda losing the storm, I didn’t die off this run but if the gefs back off alot than that’s a problem, if it backs off a little that’s understandable

 

[Fountainguy97]

As I said earlier the ensembles are built for this time frame. Use them.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

What I'm most interested in is if the GEFS shows any agreement with dumping the energy in the SW. That's why I just pulled up the 500 mb maps that load a bit quicker on Pivotal.

If it doesn't support it, then I'll forget that GFS run. I think I'm more worried about the possibility of this energy being a bit weak then it dumping into the SW.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'm not quite there on pivotal yet but based off the COD website, I don't think it supports what the GFS showed. Only a couple members aren't really showing much on Sunday yet.

 

[Kylo]

GEFS

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I know these are sfc maps but some support the gfs but actually looks slightly better than the last one

 

[SD]

GEFS
View attachment 12106

View attachment 12108

Slightly better than 6z it looks like

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[Myfrotho704_]

Is that a decent LP of the coast I smell ? Looking good

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Yeah that looks like all sources point to no on the GEFS supporting the GFS:

GFS:



GEFS:

 

[SD]

Nothing to see here just move along to May

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[TheBatman]

Fv3 has storm but it is weak and don’t have much precip to the north this go around. From what I can see with the noaa website.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The GEFS honestly looks amazing, it looks like pretty much all of the members agree on something happening to some extent in this time period.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ensemble 16 is actually insane, its a board wide but then bombs out off the nc coast, holly poop

 

[TheBatman]

Fv3

 

[SD]

FV still looks good

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[Mitch West]

Fv3 View attachment 12115

Well, it’s there for sure. Lack of cold air looks to be a issue

 

[Rain Cold]

Fv3 View attachment 12115

That is essentially where you’d like to see a storm like that at this lead.

 

[Jessy89]

I think cold air will be a major problem for some people. That wasn’t the case a couple days ago


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[RollTide18]

The GEFS honestly looks amazing, it looks like pretty much all of the members agree on something happening to some extent in this time period.

Yeah looks like the GFS was just out to lunch, FV3 may have an issue regards to the lack of cold air but that’ll be fixed down the road, as long as we have the storm we’re good.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

View attachment 12114

That’s honestly look good right?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Help me because the kid in me feels ready to go all in, and I feel that would be a bad idea:

 

[Jessy89]

Help me because the kid in me feels ready to go all in, and I feel that would be a bad idea:

View attachment 12116

Very bad idea considering it changes every single run


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[GeorgiaGirl]

No the GEFS has trended better from 0z to 12z.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

I think cold air will be a major problem for some people. That wasn’t the case a couple days ago

By some people who are you referring to? I don’t think we have a slam dunk by any stretch of the imagination, but I think right now as it stands, if you’re in NAL, NGA, TN, SC & NC temps aren’t too much of a concern
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[SD]

Impressive for a D8 mean. Obviously skewed by high end members but damn

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[Myfrotho704_]

This thing still actually has potential to become something major, 850s right now look good, and like jimmy and rain cold have said, you want the storm to look like this at this time on models, then by hour 120-150 let it slowly crawl NW and get the LP at around 1000, and I’ve seen many times these past storms over the years where the western ridge gets stronger as the storm gets closer, we’ll see but this thing has overwhelming potential

 

[Mitch West]

Help me because the kid in me feels ready to go all in, and I feel that would be a bad idea:

View attachment 12116

Don’t do it, you know better!

 

[Showmeyourtds]

12Z FV3 the same idea of a week LP. Lousy precip shield vs last nights run.

GFS, ICON & CMC are out by themselves.

GFS is not fully supported by its ensembles...