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Wintry 1/26-1/28 Winter Storm Potential

ForsythSnow said:
Looks like the tilt was too late. Again. Good storm to the south but ATL folks aren't going to be happy with this solution.
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Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
 
This is banter, but I'm not falling for semantics at this point. Two things we all know will happen at some point, run-to-run changes as well as the northwest trend.
 
12z JMA puts the low all the way down on the tip of southern FL.
9b53621408db90bbf640c305c54c8ab5.jpg
 

  • Showmeyourtds said:
    Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
    Click to expand...
  • Yeah, Id no doubt take the current track 100\100 times if I were in Cullman.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
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That snow map is bound to change quite a bit I would think. Great position for the low for us at this range.
 
How often does the nw trend happen anyone know?


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Snowflowxxl said:
Not today you don’t. It would be an apps runner by verification.
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yeah idk about wanting a NW trend unless it were to bomb. If it phases earlier it's going to go inland. The coastal transfer might be hurting but I think more than just NC is going to have to take their shot with this one. Certainly think there'd be more precip with that low of a LP but it's too early to worry about that.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Given how many times I’ve been screwed by the NW trend, I’ll take this look 100 times out of 100. Jan 2017 & Feb 2015 are 2 that come to mind, but as Arcc said, the precip shield has to be further north. Unless that LP tighens up so much when crossing into the Atlantic, I don’t know how a few bands don’t make it up this way.
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Think Jan 28, 2014...I ain't worried. Central Ga should be...ain't good be in the bullseye this early.
 
12z suite update

Fv3: good. Starting to focus in on energy at hour 120.

Gefs: nice increase in Miller A solution

EURO: similar to fv3 run from last night.



I’d say we have a storm signal for sure. Next up we want consistency from globals.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Surprised by how tightly wound the system is. Sorry, but I just don't see a low that far north in the gulf not throw more precip inland, especially one that's relatively strong.
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We have 7 days to work that out. All we need to see in this timeframe is a good track. So far we are zeroing in on a coastal. Let’s get the track where we want it.

Qpf will come if we have a monster like the euro shows.


IF there is a concern for us it’s the cold air. There is plenty of it but we would like to see an HP trend stronger to help push some of that cold air in.
 
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