packfan98
Moderator
Especially with the track of that low. I agree.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Cary_Snow95
Member
The model discrepancy is laughable. We legit can start throwing the NAM in here in another 2 or so cycles
Euro 850 low track and temperatures
Yeah, where and when 850s are between 0 and +2, much of that would likely be sleet rather than ZR imo.
Cary_Snow95
Member
For the euro tho. Gfs is completely the opposite directionI was being sarcastic when I said this would end up in Cleveland....??
Deja vu to yesterday. This is is what the snow maps looked like 5 days out for yesterday.
Very marginal event here, might crack 33 
So on the GFS I have over 1" of FZRA and the EURO I have .10" of ZR and a ton of cold rain. Good luck figuring it all out, but I feel like the main wind of Friday to Saturday now? Also, if that High can get a bit further in place quicker then super all hell could break loose.
Timing wise; 12z Euro wants to actually start the event with precipitation falling out of the sky post frontal passage at hour 90. So ..... that puts us around 2 AM EST Thursday Night/Friday Morning
SnowNiner
Member
Euro 850 low track and temperatures
Thing always wants to run through clt. Need that to go more west to east to our south.
packfan98
Moderator
Well, it's a little frustrating and fascinating at the same time to have such cold surface temperatures, a decent low track, and the snow is still confined to NW of I-85. To have two major events in a week with precip falling in the low 20's is very rare in the SE.
I got about 2.5" of pure sleet yesterday. This could be similar if it's anything close to what the Euro just showed.
I got about 2.5" of pure sleet yesterday. This could be similar if it's anything close to what the Euro just showed.
Euro 850 low track and temperatures
I am sure I am wishcasting here, but still am puzzled why 850s are that warm with a 1042 high over New York. I cannot remember ever seeing that before with such a huge difference with the cold surface and 925 temps.
How about dews?
Close for some of us back west
Stormlover
Member
euro
It’s not climo bro 
Extra strong wedge? More contrast between lowest levels and 5K altitude.
Lol we looking like a warmer version of Texas last February
SnowNiner
Member
And the low pressure doesn't seem that strong either, and it's off the coast. I guess it's going too neutral/negative too soon with the phase? With the phase modeled, I'm tossing and will wait to see ensembles. Euro smoking something.
GFS will fold like a cheap suit. It sucks at modeling the Atlantic ridge at this range. I think this is going to trend to a Miller b, primary up the apps and transfer over NC.
Single digit dews into Greensboro. Early warning shots.
Sleet
Are you kidding me? All freezing rain in Central NC with this track? It just doesn't want to snow SE of 64.
Montanasnow30
Member
Looks like the same places are going to get another opportunity for wintry weather ?
Regardless cold air is there whether it’s the surface or above and this system looks like it could be much more long duration vs the other one. Will bode not good for anyone who sees any type of ice or even snow build up for that longEuro 850 low track and temperatures
Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow
Havent looked but 850 low probably running down southern NC?Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow
Grit, but it doesn't pull the slp inland. Is it that pesky 850 you showed earlier doing that?Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow
shallow Arctic air about to give folks an ice storm in the mid 20s. Thanks
Looks like the 850 tracks Atlanta, GSP, Charlotte, Rocky Mount, Norfolk
Don't think so...just because there is cold air, it's usually relatively low level, while copious amount of moisture can easily override the cold air mass.
For some our Mets. So what would it take to get this to cover out west?? And is this actually possible at this stage on the system??
Yes, that's what I should have stated....the sfc low and mid level lows don't always line up how you want them to be in terms of temperatures aloft for snow. For RDU-CLT snow, we'd want that 850 low closer to the coast, but the 500mb wave evolution doesn't allow it
Hypsometric
Member
This. A blend of the UKMET and Euro would be gold for the RDU to I-95 NC crowd IMO. That’s not an impossibility either.Yeah the mid levels don't care what's going on at the surface. This phases and goes negative tilt just a bit too early, and too far NW for southeastern side areas for snow
Overall, a super blend of the op and ensemble runs right now gives us a winter storm in the SE...details to be ironed out
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We’ll not be using logic around here, sir.
So my guess plot on that current 12z euro run modeled track for the 850 is about right?