Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[YetAnotherRDUGuy]

Here's the current advisories and warnings in place this morning.

Very similar to yesterday to be honest. More advisories added in SC stretching to GA border over to Aiken. NC is almost unchanged from yesterday, but we'll see if that changes later today.

Oh, and almost forgot. WWAs snuck into FL panhandle and (what I believe is) Mobile Bay. (The purple in Lousiana is freeze watches/warnings)

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

12z RAP looked much better than the previous 2 runs. 12z model madness starting off well!

We’re almost at a point where it’s better to watch the radar than watch any models runs at this point

 

[thunderwolf]

6z models trended about a degree or 2 warmer here at the coast. It's probably just noise, but when temps are marginal any last minute trends could significantly change what impacts we get here.

 

[ILMRoss]

12z nam off to the races with a much more pronounced shortwave

 

[packfan98]

Oh crap! NAM coming in hottt!!!

 

[packfan98]

 

[ILMRoss]

cmon man. we're 9 hours in and it's a 200 mile shift.

 

[packfan98]

 

[iGRXY]

Yeah looking at these models is pointless. We're literally under 12 hours and they're making complete 180 trends at H5 and the surface between runs still. Really no point in looking at them at this point.

 

[Metwannabe]

Oh crap! NAM coming in hottt!!!

Of course it is, look at the difference at H5, goodness can't these models be consistent we're only a few hours out! LOL

 

[iGRXY]

And they're still way under doing the precip at the surface.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Surprised they haven’t issued a winter storm warning for wake yet or please west of the current one ..

 

[packfan98]

Surprised they haven’t issued a winter storm warning for wake yet or please west of the current one ..

They said they were waiting on the 12z runs.

 

[Stormdoc]

Yeah looking at these models is pointless. We're literally under 12 hours and they're making complete 180 trends at H5 and the surface between runs still. Really no point in looking at them at this point.

It probably gives the NWS some additional confidence their forecast is correct. Plus, it may make them want to expand some advisories and warnings

 

[packfan98]

 

[Ollie Williams]

Not bad, but still a sharp cutoff to the west.

 

[MSnowAtl]

Huh?

 

[superjames1992]

Webb’s latest forecast, shifting totals west:




The 12z NAM is looking better!

 

[iGRXY]

This is a high res model run to run change for a time period that is 1pm today. That's 4 hours away. The model run to run changes are this significant. Completely pointless to look at them going forward.

 

[Metwannabe]

Not bad, but still a sharp cutoff to the west.
View attachment 109080

Very sharp cutoff, w/nw, going to be somebody that can smell the snow and get nothing.... very little wiggle room