Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

[NickyBGuarantee]

This radar depiction just seems odd the way this zone sets up on the HRRR .. don’t know how to explain it but we should see heavier returns further west

 

[Chazwin]

View attachment 109076
cmon man. we're 9 hours in and it's a 200 mile shift.

That’s beyond crazy… 6 hours apart, but it literally just moved the western extent from the coast line to CLT… can you imagine if we ever saw shifts like this with a hurricane?

 

[Ollie Williams]

This radar depiction just seems odd the way this zone sets up on the HRRR .. don’t know how to explain it but we should see heavier returns further west View attachment 109092

Could be bright banding from sleet.

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 109089

Looks like precip field expanded but less density in previous areas

 

[ILMRoss]

That’s beyond crazy… 6 hours apart, but it literally just moved the western extent from the coast line to CLT… can you imagine if we ever saw shifts like this with a hurricane?

it happens. the hypothetical hurricane analogy here is the 10 mile shift west that makes the compact category 4 coming in at an oblique angle landfall in tampa instead of naples

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Maybe virga, but radar says we’ve got ice into the GOM. Gonna be a good day for somebody in the Carolinas.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

from RAH .. only a 2% chance to get 4 or more inches …. I smell a bust

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Really think the fv3s depiction is on the money

 

[$alt]

Maybe virga, but radar says we’ve got ice into the GOM. Gonna be a good day for somebody in the Carolinas.View attachment 109095

Modeling started latching back onto that idea last night.

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Really think the fv3s depiction is on the money View attachment 109094View attachment 109096View attachment 109097View attachment 109098

I see that concord jackpot in CLT metro ?

 

[Fountainguy97]

For what it's worth. East TN is experiencing a flizzard event right now. This limited moisture is having no problem putting down some light snow.

Of course some upslope helping. But still a good sign for you guys to the east!

If Raleigh-Durham area starts seeing snow around rush hour it may get pretty rough for commuters.

 

[ILMRoss]

For what it's worth. East TN is experiencing a flizzard event right now. This limited moisture is having no problem putting down some light snow.

Of course some upslope helping. But still a good sign for you guys to the east!

If Raleigh-Durham area starts seeing snow around rush hour it may get pretty rough for commuters.

absolutely. if the nam is to be believed and things begin at 4ish you've got every ingredient needed for snowjam 2022

 

[jackendrickwx]

27/16 with a stout NNE breeze and a wind chill in the mid-high teens

 

[jackendrickwx]

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z-
initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term
forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high
nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air
advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are
just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S
half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given
the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will
maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon,
before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the
evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more
hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect
temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding
daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with
occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as
the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which
will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the
day. -GIH

 

[weather bubba]

from RAH .. only a 2% chance to get 4 or more inches …. I smell a bust

That 2% chance to get four inches is really low. I would think the odds of four or more inches should be at least one in three.

 

[Philstorm91]

Getting some freezing drizzle on the way up to Jacksonville. I'm stopped for gas in Dillon, SC.

 

[iGRXY]

Looking at the upper level wind speeds, and RH and there's really no reason for there not to be snow back to the NC/TN border on the HRRR.

 

[Fountainguy97]

absolutely. if the nam is to be believed and things begin at 4ish you've got every ingredient needed for snowjam 2022

The NAM would be an absolute disaster.

It's 23.5 here with a ground temp around 29-30. After 15 minutes of literally the lowest rates you can get this is how an untreated road looks.

 

[Sctvman]

Canes are home tonight. Gonna be a traffic nightmare in Triangle

 

[cyclogent]

Here's season-to-date snowfall...interesting that this setup will primarily be impacting areas that haven't seen anything all winter yet, almost a perfect overlay to fill in most of the gaps in the Carolinas. Well, enjoy!