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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
I'm gonna assume those warnings will extend into the adjacent counties (ie, Richland and Lexington).
Looks like that coastal stuff is reaching as drizzle in a few spots
The scene is eerie outside. Blanked grey sky. White powder whipping around. Layer of crusty ice on everything. The table has been set here as we prepare for our first legit snowstorm in a while. Going to be a fun snow to watch get blown around since it’s so light and fluffy.
Stormsfury
Member
You'd think it was the 80s again with such crazy shifts and expansions like that this close to an event.
But when s/w move across sparsely networked regions (*cough* Mexico mountains *cough *), this kinda gives validity to why so many winter events were "sneaky" suckers back in the day.
Temperatures running 1 to 2 degrees colder in the WWA around Charleston, Berkeley Counties at this time.
Before people complain about not being in a Winter storm warning, RAH's criteria up here is 3" in 12 hours or 4" in 24 hours. As of right now their forecast high end bust is just barely meeting the first criteria
NAM QPF now up to .25 for MBY which has increased for 3 consecutive runs.
I dont know I Think eventually they will raise totals right as the snow is breaking out probably .. this should be a warning IMO especially with how cold it will stay .. winter weather advisory isn’t going to keep a lot of people off the roads
UKMET, RGEM and GFS have led the way the last 24 hours so I see no reason to not take a blend of what they are showing.
It certainly wouldn’t be the first time they upgrade to a warning as the storm is underway. It’s happened many times before.
A lot of people aren’t taking this system seriously now because it’s only under a WWA.
Anybody got one of them GFS snow ratio outputs?
At this point i think the horses have left the barn as far as public perception of impacts, the time to go WSwarnings was last night imo, raising it at like 3 would just be a change in semantics
Actually going off of this .. every most recent piece of model guidance has shows 3 inches or more here in Raleigh and the only ones I found that didn’t had 2 inches but using 10:1 ratios .. I believe this storm will be winter storm criteria when all is said and done
Oh yay. I just got a Special Weather Statement in Martin GA. Flurries or freezing drizzle possible in some areas thisafternoon. LOL
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Interesting that Charlotte isnt even under an advisory and the southern parts of the metro in SC are under a warning.
True I could see many complaints by the public on not being informed on a higher impact event event though travel impacts have always been a for sure with this system due to the temperatures
ragtop50
Member
RAH update, mentions the updates to warnings, if done, would be later
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...
Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z-
initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term
forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high
nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air
advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are
just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S
half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given
the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will
maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon,
before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the
evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more
hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect
temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding
daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with
occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as
the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which
will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the
day. -GIH
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...
Just minor changes this morning as we await a full suite of new 12z-
initialized guidance. Observational datasets confirm the near term
forecast trends. The latest surface analysis shows the frigid high
nosing strongly down through central NC with plenty of dry air
advection, including single-digit dewpoints just to our N. Skies are
just cloudy, with radar showing spotty elevated returns across the S
half, although most of this is likely not reaching the ground given
the somewhat dry subcloud layer noted on 12z soundings. Will
maintain low chance pops across the SE well into the afternoon,
before trending pops up with a NW expansion as we approach the
evening. Any changes to the advisory or warning will wait a few more
hours when further high res guidance can be fully considered. Expect
temps to hold firm or rise just a degree or two today, yielding
daytime highs of 27-34. Current brisk winds from the NNE and NE with
occasional gusts to around 20-25 mph will persist through the day as
the dense air pours in with a strong ageostrophic component, which
will keep wind chills in the upper teens to mid 20s for much of the
day. -GIH