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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Well, after a great 0z suite of models, the 6z runs seemed to have backed off on precip totals a bit. 10z runs of the RAP and hrrr are both drier than their previous runs as well. I was hoping things would trend wetter all the way until game time. Let’s see which way the 12z suite goes.
 
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packfan98 said:
Well, after a great 0z suite of models, the 6z runs seemed to have backed off on precip totals a bit. 10z runs of the RAP and hrrr are both drier than their previous runs as well. I was hoping things would trend wetter all the way until game time. Let’s see which way the 12z suite goes.
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The run to run inconsistencies in precip amounts have to be frustrating the forecasters. One run is a solid 3-5 event then the next 1-3. Crazy
 
packfan98 said:
Well, after a great 0z suite of models, the 6z runs seemed to have backed off on precip totals a bit. 10z runs of the RAP and hrrr are both drier than their previous runs as well. I was hoping things would trend wetter all the way until game time. Let’s see which way the 12z suite goes.
Click to expand...
Oddly enough the HRRR 10z run was much better at H5 so that surface depiction didn’t make sense.
 
iGRXY said:
Oddly enough the HRRR 10z run was much better at H5 so that surface depiction didn’t make sense.
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That’s encouraging. I haven’t looked at the 500mb maps this morning. I was assuming that the system was coming in less vigorous or with a worse orientation. We know that many times the NW expansion is larger than modeled. All we can do is look for trends and see what falls from the sky.
 
The metro Atlanta area freezing surface temps are yet another fly in the ointment. The areas with the greatest chances of any precip to the east of Atlanta are going to struggle to get below freezing until tonight when the best moisture has passed. Some may recall seeing that warm bubble on the models dissecting Atlanta and the current maps below clearly show the battle line between the cold air in NW Georgia, and the wedge, with its less cold air struggling to make progress west into the opposing NW flow.

I've seen this play out many times before for MBY, and it's aggravating as hell.

airT.pngwind_dir.png
 
Last nights Ukmet lined up with GFS: Ops looked good Canadian, Euro for 1-3 here: Time for short range:

Also two shots next week: Tuesday is a thermals fight: Next Fri/Sat is the same fight now, difference all globals have a wound up Miller A off the coast. We would all be saying its right where we want it at this juncture and it really is right where we want it. But fighting todays battle trying to get a NW trend, Im cautiously optomistic now with that statement.

sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
That snow up in Watauga county currently isnt even showing up on the radars. Atleast the crappy accueather ones
 
FallsLake said:
The 6z RDPS did back down some on snow totals (0z had 6+ showing in wake County). But it does align closer now with the 0z/6z GFS.

6z RDPS Kuchera:
View attachment 109056
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MHX has held to their guns calling for a general 4-6 with higher amounts up NE towards Virginia and the Albermarle sound. Not too many times we see a forecast of heavy snow with a temp dropping to 23 degrees. Ratios should be good.
 
iGRXY said:
Oddly enough the HRRR 10z run was much better at H5 so that surface depiction didn’t make sense.
Click to expand...
The precip shield has consistently been north of what the HRRR depicted at the same time. What’s weird is that it doesn’t seem to be ingesting that reality in subsequent runs.

B0901B14-337A-4289-8602-76A79FE24DEB.jpeg
 
packfan98 said:
Well, after a great 0z suite of models, the 6z runs seemed to have backed off on precip totals a bit. 10z runs of the RAP and hrrr are both drier than their previous runs as well. I was hoping things would trend wetter all the way until game time. Let’s see which way the 12z suite goes.
Click to expand...
We gotta ride the GFS (cough) and RDPS to the starting line as of right now.
 
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