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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm

Finally about to go to bed and took a peek out and it’s snowing lightly here again with a slushy dusting on the grass and elevated surfaces. Going to be a tired morning! ?
 
Latest 12km NAM & long range HRRR just backed off from its last runs.

Hopefully we aren’t all about to get the rug pulled out from under us. Now casting at this anyways.
 
bouncycorn said:
I wish there were a way to go back and view model data from back then. I don't even remember what models showed beforehand. I remember a winter storm watch then warning was issued for southern metro ATL counties the day before the event and then expanded to the rest of metro Atlanta the morning of the event.

If this event overperforms and causes similar issues in Atlanta, it'd be one of the biggest model fails in recent memory.
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I remembered the Euro fired the 1st warning shot here like a few days before it started then then NAM joined in. GFS was last from what I can remember.
 
KyloG said:
Impressive GFS run. 3-5” totals over large area of NC/SC

View attachment 109046
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Yeah but it's such a quick hitter with light precip and most 06 guidance did stop the west trend and backed off totals a little. Have to see how things progress through the day, on WV everything looks good but I'm looking at everything through very tired eyes too lol
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah but it's such a quick hitter with light precip and most 06 guidance did stop the west trend and backed off totals a little. Have to see how things progress through the day, on WV everything looks good but I'm looking at everything through very tired eyes too lol
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Yeah RAH mentioned the 6z runs stayed close to the 0z (..which I guess is good):

A wave of surface low pressure will then move offshore along the
stalled Arctic front later Friday into Friday night, with a mid-
level shortwave trough moving across NC. This will give the first
significant accumulating snow of the season to many parts of central
NC. Snow will spread from SE to NW from the late afternoon into the
overnight hours, heaviest and most widespread from about 00z to 06z
and exiting to the east by about 09z (possibly ending as freezing
drizzle) as dry air quickly moves in. Essentially all models,
including the GFS and ECMWF as well as short-term high-res models
like the NAM, RAP, and HRRR, have trended farther west with the low
and its associated precipitation shield during the last 24 hours.
Thus raised POPs to likely to categorical across most of the region
except the far NW, and increased forecast snowfall totals slightly.
Generally expect 3-4 inches east of I-95, 2-3 inches from the US-1
corridor to I-95, and a dusting to 2 inches NW of there. It should
be stressed that there is still some uncertainty on these totals, in
particular on how far west the snow shield will make it, as it will
be fighting dry air in the NW. The GFS continues to insist on a
stronger jet streak and associated upper divergence, and thus brings
the snow much farther west than other models do. Forecast amounts
may have to be raised a bit further if models continue their
westward trend, though the 06z NAM and GFS look very similar to
their 00z runs. Thus for now continue the Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories as is, and will reassess the need to
change anything after the 12z guidance comes in. One thing we are
confident about is that the column will be sufficiently cold for
snow nearly everywhere. The one exception is the far SE (mainly
southern Sampson County) where models show still having enough warm
air aloft to stay sleet and freezing rain for much of the event.
Thus a tenth to a quarter inch of freezing rain is still forecast in
southern parts of Sampson county. Lows will be in the mid-teens to
lower-20s on Friday night with continued north winds around the
deepening low off the coast. This will bring wind chills down to the
single digits to lower-teens.
 
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