Christian T Murray
Member
Im at work. Just curious how tonights smaller scale event is looking especially is it north of raleigh or shifted south some at this point?
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
Downeastnc
Member
Good to see the snow crash to the coast hopefully this keeps it more SN/IP and less ZR for the areas that were looking to get crushed by ZR yesterday....
griteater
Member
Trend here on HRRR. Interesting thing to see is whether the GFS/RDPS trend east with 18z runs
Stephenb888
Member
This things about to blow up and get us again in upstate Sc. I can feel it.
We’re getting real close to a RGEM solution, the rgem pulls a band out the foothills and strengthens it, hrrr is maybe trying to pickup on that
Looking at observations for the Piedmont, the winds have now turned out of the north after being mainly w and NW all day… we should start to see some fairly steady temperatures drops going forward
iGRXY
Member
Go take a peak at the radar and the NAM is clearly too dry back in Texas and even on the front. RGEM is the closest to reality in my opinion.
RAP ends this band tonight with some freezing drizzle in the mid 20s as we lose the DGZ toward the end. Looks like the 2" line is just across the Orange County line as well.
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Precip on the HRRR isnt doing well (in a good way). Way too light
Yeah, that looks very good… you certainly don’t expect to not see precipitation falling with a look like that… when this system is over, some meteorologist or student is gonna have a great case study to do on which models performed the best why some absolutely struggled
griteater
Member
If GFS and RDPS move east, then we're likely looking at the GFS/RDPS camp and the HRRR/NAM/Euro/UKMet camp meeting in the middle. If the GFS and RDPS stay west or move west, the lookey here / lookey here factor increases
iGRXY
Member
NAM looks like it might be better thru 15.
Looks like atleast more interaction with the SW.
Looks like atleast more interaction with the SW.
The 18z NAM is initializing with more precip with this frontal passage and showing less of a cold push compared to 12z, recognizing the reality on the ground. We’ll see if that translates into anything meaningful.
smast16
Member
2 hours old, and the 18Z HRRR already wrong.
Wx4life
Member
I noticed the Temps dropped 2° to 44 in the past hour. I'm in the Indian Trail area
One thing to factor into your calculus is that there’s likely a reason the nam is held back to 18 hours every time it is run except for 4 times a day. I don’t think that being able to pick up on tiny synoptic trends that have major downstream implications is it’s wheelhouse.
NAM looks worse at H5 lol
brendan123
Member
12Z EPS continued the trend of backing off but just slightly
Yes… I’m at home in Wingate and we went from 46 to 44 in the last hour as well