Where’s the sfc response on the hrrr lol maybe I’m impatient and it’s coming
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
brendan123
Member
39/38 here with rain, HRRR had us initializing at 40 at 2pm falling to 39 by 3pm (so on track). Most models along with local mets/NWS calling for around an inch (maybe higher) with the front tonight with 4”-6” for the second event Friday. Maybe a little too high, but we’ll see. Biggest possibility for major snowfall since Jan 2018 here.
iGRXY
Member
This might go boom shortly.
Surface on HRRR at least for tomorrow looks worse but that's strange. Tonights stuff has picked up though
iGRXY
Member
Surface just isn't reflective for some reason.
Whatever’s happening tonight just reeks of something models whiff on, frontogenesis magic
Hrrr starting to show some sort of band developing in the foothills now
Downeastnc
Member
yeah its confusing......trust in the fact that NW side precip is ALWAYS underdone on over running setups......and if we keep typing that enough it will come true.
Looks like it’s trying
There it goes. As of 00z Sat HRRR is more robust but keeping snow east of Wake, about the same as the last run just more QPF so far
Yeah it’s very confusing to say the least… you look at the H5 and it’s following all other trends of the day and continues to improve, but it and the Euro their just isn’t the surface reflection to match that. I’d hate to have to try and put a forecast package together with that
Downeastnc
Member
That little band out west is actually new wasa not there are 12Z
brendan123
Member
Precip breaks out actually a little more than last run, just a little delayed
It’s really trying 
Hrrr is a tick away from the rgem tbh
Downeastnc
Member
Those little bands out in the piedmont the first warning shots of a change or just a tease.....
Can you pull up any soundings… I’m away from my computer and can’t… all I can think of is that the moisture just isn’t deep enough
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think that precip near clt will be a lot more than that. It’s trying to pick up on the NW part of the storm imo
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The surface map infatuation is getting to me here.... I literally just loaded bufkit's overview (the actual crappy Windows 95 type program) for my back yard way in CAE and even on the NAM the upper levels aren't far off.. and that's the "drier" NAM way back here..
A band all the way back in GA too!