Yeah cold front already through here with winds out of the N and temp down to 43
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
It doesn't. I don't think anyone is tossing the baby out with the Euro's bath water. But it's still a higher quality model than most others, and it doesn't do poorly close to events just because it's a global model. You'll find that most NWS offices use it up to the event taking place. I'm certainly not cancelling the event because of one run of the Euro. The point I was making is that it would have been better if it would have trended in the same direction with the rest of the models with its depiction of precipitation. It may mean nothing in the end, but that would have been better.
I don't understand the pessimism for some here. First off, this is an Eastern NC storm and IF you are lucky enough to see something to the West, that's a win.
h500 looks better across virtually all modeling. The precipitation field is expanding overall across all guidance.. forcing looks better, 700mb, etc. This is 24+ or so hours away on the back end for the Western areas (after 7am tomorrow) if you were to even get it...
Surface maps aren't gospel and me thinks the radar and nowcasts will show that .......
h500 looks better across virtually all modeling. The precipitation field is expanding overall across all guidance.. forcing looks better, 700mb, etc. This is 24+ or so hours away on the back end for the Western areas (after 7am tomorrow) if you were to even get it...
Surface maps aren't gospel and me thinks the radar and nowcasts will show that .......
Pingers west of Winston. HRRR gonna score tonight? modernweenie
Downeastnc
Member
The HRRR going a little ham with this arctic front.....
SouthGarnerSleet
Member
Sitting at .25qpf fallen here in Wake County. HRRR forecasted .1 on the previous 6 runs
I mean if the HRRR has a wheelhouse this is it, it has not wavered on the anafront precip and actually is doubling down. Seeing those early mPING reports are very promising as well
The hrrr might surprise some this run considering this is the difference from 12z to 18z 
lexxnchloe
Member
That alone is almost worth a winter storm warning.
Sleet west of Mooresville? Huh. Not sure about that mPing
Broken024
Member
More interaction between sw right?
It’s right ended as wintry mix east of the mtns due to dry air rushing in aloft
DadOfJax
Member
The HRRR has been atrocious with the last 2 events for us here in AL....not sure on verification elsewhere.
packfan98
Moderator
Snowing in Stokes county just north of Greensboro. @metwannabe it's coming for you!
iGRXY
Member
As Fro said above. There is a lot stronger vorticity with that piece coming down from behind. More good trends at H5.
bouncycorn
Meteorologist
15z MMFS - Freezing rain zone slightly expanded in southern area
Snow accums look about the same
Winter impacts still heaviest in NC, likely due to lower ground temps there.
I’ll fire up the 18z run as soon as that data is available.
Attachments
Temp drop has begun at RDU. 45/43
iGRXY
Member
Lol this is looking wayyyyyyyy better.
lexxnchloe
Member
I think we are headed for a bust on the upside for many tonight.
Rain seems to be overperforming today, no? Not sure if that really has any bearing for tomorrow, but interesting to note. Hopefully, the skies won’t need to heal. modernweenie