iGRXY
Member
Spoke too soon. N/S is worse.
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Wintry 1/20 - 1/23 Winter Storm
- Thread starter packfan98
- Start date
blueheronNC
Member
The 850mb 0C line passes through Durham shortly before 7pm and through Raleigh at 8pm. That's pretty consistent with the changeover timing on the HRRR.
Sorry to muddy the pbp but to me NAM looks better thru 20. Better tilt and I think there’s a little more phasing. Tune in to see who wins the “who can interpret the 20 mile nudges on a model thru hr 20 the best” contest
iGRXY
Member
And drier at 27
brendan123
Member
Wakefield just issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of SE VA and NE NC, predicting 4”-7” inches. May be a little high in spots but still this is the highest snowfall potential for most of these areas since 2018
Yeah, I was thinking the same, but I’m terrible at predicting where this stuff is going to go. ?
iGRXY
Member
SW looks better with more interaction but the secondary vort coming down to slow down the N/S looks much weaker.
Surface looks better to me at hr 30. Precip is breaking out a bit further west in the Carolinas compared to 12z. A bit warmer. Isobars from the surface low a bit closer to the coast.
Mind you I’m splitting hairs and I might also be wrong. ?
Mind you I’m splitting hairs and I might also be wrong. ?
No this run is better there’s way more moisture aloft further west, strange
iGRXY
Member
Probably still going to be a good run for the 95 corridor east
Columbia SC ?
iGRXY
Member
Late bloomer for us further west.
Exactly. 700mb is a big shift west with 90-100%
Woah 
Yeah, definitely looking healthier at hr 33. Snow breaking out from RDU to CAE and nudging towards CLT a bit. I suspect this should be a big run from PGV up to ORF.
Still ends up being bone-dry up here in Durham, haha.
Still ends up being bone-dry up here in Durham, haha.
iGRXY
Member
Definitely supportive of more moisture
Ok this a head scratcher… the H5 looked better on both the HRRR and the Euro, but the surface reflection looks worse… the H5 looks worse on the NAM, but the surface reflection looks better… I guess this just truly going to come down to now casting
Yep Columbia is definitely in a sweet spot.
lj0109
Member
CAE expands Winter Weather Advisory into the CSRA:
National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
Aiken-Barnwell-Bamberg-
Including the cities of Aiken, North Augusta, Barnwell,
Williston, Blackville, Bamberg, and Denmark
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected Friday afternoon through
Friday night. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch.
* WHERE...Aiken, Barnwell and Bamberg Counties.
* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.
National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
Aiken-Barnwell-Bamberg-
Including the cities of Aiken, North Augusta, Barnwell,
Williston, Blackville, Bamberg, and Denmark
303 PM EST Thu Jan 20 2022
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected Friday afternoon through
Friday night. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice
accumulations of a few hundredths of an inch.
* WHERE...Aiken, Barnwell and Bamberg Counties.
* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.